In the latest of his Cheltenham Festival preview articles, Andrew turns his attention to the Stayers’ Hurdle, where he picks out a multitude of stats and pointers for the 3m Grade 1 event, which is raced on day three of the meeting on Thursday 12 March, 2026.
Stats and trends
Age
Seven-year-olds have performed well in recent years, landing six of the last ten runners. Backing all 36 qualifiers returned a profit of £48.60 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 2.70, A/E = 2.23)…
…perming the seven-year-olds in the Tote Exacta or computer straight forecast would have hit the one-two in 2019 (11-8 beat 33-1) and in 2020 (50-1 beat 20-1, Exacta paid £1,464).
Trainer nationality
Irish trainers have taken seven of the last ten renewals…
Running style
Seven winners came from off the pace (H = held up), two made all (L = led) and one was prominent (P)…
Days since last run
Those who had raced within the past four weeks fares poorly…
Race type last time out
Those who prepped over fences failed to score from 14 runners…
Race classification last time out
All ten winners prepped in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 contest. Those that didn’t were 0-17…
System
Backing seven-year-olds who were returning from a break of at least 29 days and prepped in Grade 1 or Grade 2 company would have found six winners from 32 bets for a profit of £52.63 at SP (+£124.38 at Betfair SP after 2% commission)…
The main contenders
Teahupoo has finished third, first and second in the last three renewals of the Stayers’ Hurdle and heads the ante-post market at around the 7-4 mark. Gordon Elliott’s nine-year-old is unbeaten in two starts this season and slammed last year’s winner Bob Olinger by seven lengths in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown. It’s a case of the softer the better where the son of Masked Marvel is concerned and he’s won nine from nine on ground rated as soft or heavy by Proform…
Honesty Policy has improved as stepped up in trip from 2m, landing the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree last spring (2m4f, good) before a half-length second to Jasmin De Vaux in Grade 1 novice company at the Punchestown festival. He was sent off as 11-4 favourite when a close-up third to Impose Toi in the Long Walk, a solid effort on his seasonal debut and first run outside of novice company, and the six-year-old could find the required level of improvement to take this.
Henry De Bromhead’s 11-year-old Bob Olinger was almost two lengths in front of Teahupoo when landing this race 12 months ago, a run that took his Cheltenham record to 1111 (4-4). He’s lightly raced for his aged (just 20 runs) and he has to be respected.
Emma Lavelle’s seven-year-old Ma Shantou, who finished a 25-1 seventh of 20 in the Albert Bartlett over course and distance on his final start last term, impressed in beating Electric Mason in a 3m handicap hurdle on the Cheltenham’s Old Course on his reappearance and bounced back from his Haydock flop to land another 3m handicap hurdle here on New Year’s Day. He followed up in impressive fashion in the Cleeve Hurdle, and his trainer took this race with Paisley Park in 2019.
Impose Toi, runner-up in last season’s Coral Cup, has progressed from good handicapper to Graded-race performer this term, beating Strong Leader in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury before seeing off the same rival in the Long Walk. The bubble burst when a seven-length second to Ma Shantou in the Cleeve and he hasn’t won outside the November/December period since 2023.
Kabral Du Mathan made it two from two for Dan Skelton when slamming Jingko Blue in the Relkeel Hurdle over the extended 2n4f trip here on New Year’s Day. That took the six-year-old’s career core (including his sole run in France) to 11122211 (5-8), though he has yet to run at this 3m trip.
Wodhooh, 2-1 antepost favourite for the Mares’ Hurdle, is unlikely to run here.
Home By The Lee is very consistent when given genuinely soft or heavy going, landing six of his 15 starts for a profit of £48.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. One of those runs came in this race – a 16-1 third to Teahupoo in 2024 – when he might have been closer but for jumping moderately in first-time blinkers. Progeny of his sire, Fame And Glory, often improve with age and the 11-year-old was only 1lb off his career-best RPR when scoring in Grade 2 company at Gowran Park on January 22nd. He was available at around 40-1 at the time of writing and is likely to start much shorter if getting his preferred underfoot conditions.
Conclusion
Genuinely soft or heavy going could make Teahupoo hard to beat but he’s priced up as though the ground will be in his favour, and he can’t be supported ante-post. Last year’s Bob Olinger, four from four at Cheltenham (three on the New Course), is highly respected despite advancing years while fellow 11-year-old Home By The Lee has each-way possibilities, especially if the mud is flying. However, at this stage – and in the hope of good to soft or faster going – the suggestion is Ma Shantou. He was Emma Lavelle’s first runner to score on his handicap hurdle debut following a Grade 1 prep since Paisely Park (winner of this race in 2019) and the seven-year-old is the right age for this.