In his latest column, Andrew identifies the key stats and systems to help GG readers find winners on Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday (October 17th).
2.05 Ascot – Qatar Racing British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1)
The opening Group 1 of the afternoon is for the sprinters, with hot favourite Almeraq looking to buck a trend himself and prove a clear top dog in the division.
Horse sex
Fillies and mares have a combined record of 0-37 in the past ten years…
Recent form
Last time out winners have a poor record…
System
Whereas those who were beaten last time out, and are male have the following record…
This angle returned a healthy profit, even without last year’s 200-1 winner Powerful Glory. The qualifiers in the sole blank year included 150-1 runner-up Run To Freedom. Those whose latest British/Irish start came in the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup were five from 35 (+£36.00). Coppull, who ‘won’ the race on the near side when eighth in the Commonwealth Cup, failed to handle the deep ground when down the field in the Sprint Cup and will find underfoot conditions more suitable on Saturday. Sprint Cup runner-up Paborus is also on the radar.
2.40 Ascot – Qatar Racing British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1)
Defending champion Kalpana may have to rely on one specific factor going her way which is outside of hers and connections’ control…
Draw
Since 2015 (11 runnings) those drawn in stalls 1-5 are zero from 55 (zero from 40 on the Flat course – the hurdles track was used on three occasions, 2019, 2023 and 2024, in the study period)…
3.20 Ascot – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1)
There are two types of runner to avoid in the 1m Queen Elizabeth II Stakes – you want a regular top-class competitor who is tactically flexible.
Prep race
Those who prepped in Group 2 (0-40) or Group 3 (1-14) company had a poor record…
Running style last time out
Those who had made the running in their prep race fared poorly…
4.00 Ascot – Qatar Racing Champion Stakes (Group 1)
The Champion Stakes is the race on its eponymous day which relies upon familial factors as much as any…
Sire country of breeding
Runners representing British sires have landed seven of the past ten renewals…
4.35 Ascot – Balmoral Handicap (Class 2)
Weight rank
The top three in the weights have struggled in the past ten years…
Days since last run
A very recent outing has been a good pointer to the winner, with those who raced within the past 14 days scoring five times from just 37 runners…
Four more winners raced between 15 and 27 days earlier, while those rested for 28 days or longer were just one from 73 (last year’s winner Crown Of Oaks)…
Draw
Eight of the ten winners were drawn in stall 10 or lower…
Last time out winners fared poorly in the study period…
Prep race
Nine of the last ten winners prepped in a Class 2 handicap, five of them at Ascot.
System
Beaten in a Class 2 handicap last time out, fourth or lower in the weights, raced between one and 27 days ago…
The bulk of the profit comes from 80-1 shot Shelir in 2022. The three blank years found at least one placed horse, including the 28-1 third in 2020, 40-1 second and 66-1 third in 2021 and the 10-1 second last year. Those drawn in stall 6 or lower were six from 23 (+£52.00). The draw was unknown at the time of writing but Hickory, whose course record when ridden by Saffie Osborne (already jocked-up) stands at 234711011 (4-9), looks interesting at around 20-1.
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