Andrew Mount uses his latest ‘Angles’ column to discuss some trainer systems and a veterans’ chase angle that could pay dividends during the remainder of 2026.
National Hunt trainer angles – November
Kim Bailey and Mat Nicholls
Since 2020, the Kim Bailey and Mat Nicholls yard has done well in the early months (October to November) of the peak jumps season with horses returning from a break of at least 150 days. This system has found 57 winners from 227 bets (25.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £57.24 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£97.44 at Betfair SP after 2% commission). The expected number of winners, according to their odds, was 38.29, giving an actual over expected score (A/E) of 1.49 (anything above 1.0 is positive). This angle is only four from 19 so far this year (-£1.83 at SP, +£0.76 Betfair SP), but one or two of the yard’s seasonal debutants have looked in need of the run, and I’m expecting the strike-rate to pick up before the end of the month…
David Pipe
The early-season angle with the David Pipe yard is to side with the handicap chasers in the October to December period who were returning from a break of at least 150 days. Since 2007, this system has found 45 winners from 257 bets (17.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £107.33 at SP (+£170.10 at Betfair SP after 2% commission, expected wins = 28.04, A/E = 1.60). Backing only the qualifiers over a distance of 2m6f or further improves the strike-rate to 22.1% (+£118.83 SP, expected wins = 16.41, A/E = 2.07).
Jane Williams
December is usually the month to side with runners from the yard of Jane Williams, and it was also the case when she trained in partnership with ex-husband Nick. This century, the score is 85 from 411 (20.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £104.28 at SP (expected wins = 61.02, A/E = 1.39).
Jeremy Scott
In the last ten years, Jeremy Scott’s record with horses returning from 150 days or longer off the track stands at just 22 winners from 273 runners (8.1%) for a loss of £90.38 at SP (expected wins = 25.80, A/E = 0.62). In September to November only, the score is 13 from 183 (7.1%) for a loss of £86.88 (expected wins = 18.54, A/E = 0.70). The yard’s break returners who run well without winning (defined as finishing second, third or fourth) often make good bets second time out, landing 18 of their 98 starts since the beginning of 2017 for a profit of £9.81 at SP (+£28.31 at Betfair SP after 2% commission, expected wins = 15.68, A/E = 1.15). Fifteen of the 18 wins came in the November to January period. Backing only the qualifiers whose second run came after a break of between one and 28 days found 14 winners from 60 bets (23.3%) for a profit of £28.18 at SP (+£45.71 BSP, expected wins = 10.49, A/E = 1.33).
Sandy Thomson
Sandy Thomson’s yard tends to perform best when the mud is flying, and his breakdown by month since 2016 looks like this…
…with the November to January period proving especially lucrative.
Since he began training in 2010, his full record in this three-month period looks like this…
…a profit of over £200 at SP.
Venetia Williams
The angle with Venetia Williams is to back her handicap chasers blind in November and December, with the score this century standing at 293 winners from 1,470 bets (19.9% strike-rate) for a profit of £262.46 at SP. One word of warning, however – a dry summer can mean that the yard gets going later than usual (plenty of her runners enjoy the mud), and last year found only four winners from 52 bets (-£24.50). Omitting the horses aged ten and older will boost the profit.
Veterans’ handicap chases
Regular viewers of GG’s Weekend Watch will know that I love veterans’ handicap chases, as ten-year-olds – the youngest age group eligible to take part – outperform their older rivals. The profits have dried up in recent years, but the market undervalues ten-year-olds who failed to complete the course last time out…
…these were often switching from top handicaps or Graded company, where they had struggled against younger, more progressive rivals.
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