Chepstow has been forced to abandon the chases at their three-day national hunt meeting (Friday to Sunday) and the dry summer could continue to have an adverse effect on jumps racing well into the autumn/winter. There is some rain forecast for Chepstow on Wednesday/Thursday but with strong winds forecast for early Friday morning (gusting at up to 38mph) we should still be looking for fast ground horses/sires, even with the watering that is taking place. I want to use this week’s column to take a detailed look at the jumps sires we should be siding with while the ground is on the fast side…
Getaway
Since the beginning of October 2021, Getaway has sired 160 winners from 948 runners (16.9%) in national hunt races in Britain on ground judged to be good to firm, firm or hard by Proform (expected wins = 143.20, A/E = 1.12)…
…backing all the qualifiers at SP would have returned a very small loss (-£4.72 or -0.50% on turnover) but this became a profit of £200.87 at Betfair SP after 2% commission (+21.2% on turnover). The next angle is not especially helpful for Chepstow this week but backing only the geldings over fences returns a profit at SP…
Shirocco
Shirocco has weighed in with 64 winners from 377 runners in the study period, 13.56 more than the market expected…
…again, these returned a level stakes loss at SP but a profit at Betfair SP, with the hurdlers out-performing, in terms of profit not strike-rate, those who ran in bumpers or over fences…
…the hurdlers who ran over a distance of 2m3f or further fared especially well…
The Seamus Mullins-trained Kapitein Kool could represent the sire in the Welsh Champion Hurdle on Friday (3.12 race), though the trip is only 2m.
Scorpion
Progeny of the sire Scorpion are renowned for their quirks, but the jumpers have proved profitable to follow on very fast ground in recent years…
…with the chasers doing particularly well…
Sir Percy
Sir Percy, winner of the 2006 Derby for Marcus Tregoning, has enjoyed some success with his jumps progeny. Since his first crop hit the racecourse, those to run on ground rated genuinely good to firm or faster by Proform returned a profit of £68.18 at SP…
…all 51 winners came over hurdles (47) or in bumpers (4) and though the sample size is small (0-7), his chasers might be best avoided.
Sea The Moon
Progeny of Sea The Moon return a healthy profit at SP when racing over jumps in Britain on good to firm or faster going (since the beginning of 2021)…
Cokoriko
Blindly backing all British jumps progeny of the sire Cokoriko on fast ground would have returned a profit of over £1000 at Betfair SP after commission but that was mostly down to 200-1 (SP) Huntingdon winner Kally Des Bruyeres in April 2024 who returned a Betfair SP of 999.46.
However, they show a profit even without that huge-priced winner. The hurdlers fared best…
Jet Away
Progeny of Jet Away have done well in British national hunt races on fast ground…
…with the chasers out-performing the hurdlers in terms of strike-rate and A/E…
