In his latest column Andrew Mount looks ahead to Saturday’s Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket and the stats that can help us to sort the wheat from the chaff.
1.22 Newmarket – British Stallion Stakes EBF “Jersey Lily” Fillies’ Nursery Handicap (Class 2)
Foaling month
This race has been dominated by earlier foals (January to March), with those foaled in April/May failing to register a win from 42 runners…
Run style
Last week’s Rowley Mile meeting saw a huge bias to front-runners/prominent racers and only two of the last ten Jersey Lily winners were ridden patiently…
Previous nursery experience
Eight of the last ten winners were making their handicap debut and backing all 52 qualifiers returned a profit of £14.00 at SP…
…while those that had already raced in at least one nursery were just two from 63 for a loss of £51.67…
Trainer
Eight of the ten winners were trained in Newmarket and backing all 47 qualifiers returned a profit of £12.08 at SP…
1.55 Newmarket – Tattersalls Online Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2)
Distance last time out
Those who prepped over 1m or further have a modest record in the past ten years…
…with only two winners from 33 runners (Bow Echo at 85-40 last year and Roaring Lion, 11-4, in 2017).
Those who prepped over 7f did much better…
2.27 Newmarket – Tattersalls Sceptre Sessions Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1)
Trainer
Irish trainers have dominated…
…with Aidan O’Brien landing six of the past ten renewals from just 15 runners (+£41.38 to a £1 level stake at SP), Donnacha O’Brien sending out a 9-2 winner and 13-2 runner-up from two goes and Jessica Harrington scoring with 16-1 shot Millisle in 2019. Joseph O’Brien’s sole representative finished fourth at 50-1 and lumping the O’Brien’s together gives the following results…
3.40 Newmarket – bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap)
Freshness
Eight of the last ten winners had raced just once in the past two months…
…and backing all 97 qualifiers returned a profit of £70.50 at SP (+£171.68 at Betfair SP after 2% commission). This year’s qualifiers include Indalo, Hand Of God and last year’s fourth Erzindjan, the mount of Billy Loughnane.
Those without a run in the same period were 0-23, while those with two or more runs were just two from 162…
