In his latest column, Andrew turns his attention to Doncaster’s St Leger meeting and the stats/systems that matter…
Thursday 10th September
1.15 – British Stallion Studs ‘Carrie Red’ EBF Fillies’ Nursery Handicap (Class 2)
Number of previous wins
Maidens are zero from 25 in the past ten years…
Five winners had scored once previously and backing the 68 qualifiers blind returned a loss of £31.00 at SP…
Five winners (from just 24 runners) had won at least twice, and this group returned a profit…
Weight rank
Nine of the ten winners came from the top five in the weights…
System
Top five in the weights and at least one previous win…
1.50 – Weatherbys £300,000 2-Y-O- Stakes (Class 2)
Trainers
Since 2010, The Hannon yard has drawn a blank from 42 runners…
Draw
A low draw has proved helpful in recent years, with stalls 1, 2 or 3 providing five of the last ten winners for a profit of £49.50…
Prep race
Six of the last ten winners prepped at York, five of them at the Ebor meeting…
3.35 Doncaster – Betfred May Hill Stakes (Group 2)
Running style last time out
Six of the last ten winners were ridden patiently in their prep race and backing all 22 qualifiers produced a healthy return…
4.10 Doncaster – Meadowhall C Flannels Beauty Bar Nursery Handicap (Class 3)
Prep race
Runners that prepped over this one-mile trip have done well, winning on seven of the last ten occasions they were represented. The three blank years (2017, 2022 and 2025) produced a 9-2 runner-up from the sole qualifier, 15-2 runner-up and 40-1 third from just two qualifiers and an 11-1 third and 9-2 seventh from two representatives, suggesting that this is a good angle for the Placepot. Backing all 27 qualifiers returned a profit of £17.50…
Those who finished in the top three last time out were seven from 20…
4.45 – East Midlands Airport And JET2 Nursery Handicap (Class 3)
Running style
Nine of the last ten winners came from off the pace (H for held up in the table below)…
…however, only three of the winners were ridden patiently in their prep race so this information is probably only of help to in-running punters.
Friday 11th September
1.15 – Betfred Flying Scotsman Stakes (Listed)
Days since last run
The last ten winners had all raced within the past 28 days…
…and backing all 48 qualifiers returned a profit of £12.47 at SP.
Number of previous runs (GB/IRE only)
All ten winners had raced between one and three times in Britain/Ireland previously, with the sweet spot being three previous runs…
System
Two or three previous runs in GB/IRE and ran in the past four weeks…
2.25 – Carlsberg Danish Pilsner Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2)
Number of previous runs (GB and IRE only)…
Six of the last ten winners had had four previous runs in GB/Ireland and backing all 23 qualifiers returned a profit of £46.25 at SP.
Saturday 12th September
2.20 – Betfred Portland (Class 2)
Draw
Low draws have struggled in the last 15 years, with only one winner drawn in stall 8 or lower…
Age
Four and five-year-olds won 13 of the 15 renewals in the study period.
Distance travelled
Those trained relatively locally (within 100 miles of Doncaster) had a poor record…
Headgear
12 of the 15 winners didn’t wear any form of headgear. Last year’s seven qualifiers included the first three home (12-1, 12-1 and 14-1).
System (15-year record)
No headgear, stall 9 or higher, aged four or five…
This angle has hit five of the last six wins with the only blank year in 2021 when the two qualifiers included the 25-1 third (the other was unplaced at 33-1).
Sunday 13th September
3.40 – Betfred Mallard Handicap (Class 2)
Sire country of breeding
Nine of the last ten winners were representing Irish sires…
…and backing all 55 qualifiers returned a profit of £32.00 at SP.
[Text Wrapping Break]Running style last time out
Nine of the ten winners in the study period were ridden patiently in their prep race…
System
Irish sire and ridden patiently last time out…
Those who prepped at Ascot, Goodwood or York fared even better…
