The 2023/24 Jumps Season is underway and we’ve got all our team to give their ’10 to follow’ for the NH season.
Dave Young (Cheltmental) is the next to give his selections, which include six selections from the big Irish yards, as well as a Nicky Henderson mare he has high hopes for.
LUCCIA (Nicky Henderson)
This 5yo mare trained by Nicky Henderson peaked last season with an RPR of 142 which was achieved at Exeter in a Listed Novice Hurdle where she ran out an incredibly comfortable winner. That performance followed an impressive hurdle debut at Newbury back in November 2022 and at this point she’d stamped herself as a firm favourite for the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham.
Nicky Henderson said after that win “She’s had a few hiccups since she won at Newbury, but that was exactly what we wanted before Cheltenham”. He went on to add “She had a horrible incident last year where we very nearly lost her. It’s fantastic for Paul (Sandy, Owner). She’s a homebred and it’s exciting. She’s a bit special”.
Interestingly Nicky also referenced jockey Nico De Boinvilles thoughts by admitting “I think she would have a chance in the Supreme and Nico said to run her there, so he much have been impressed”.
I’d not take those comments lightly, there’s no doubt with the mares allowance they thought she was capable of a run in the high 140’s and it wasn’t a particularly open looking Supreme that they were entertaining.
Ultimately, she was incredible easy to back on the Exchanges in the build up to The Festival and while she was a general 6/4 shot, she was available to back for plenty at 3/1+ which is a big red flag. I’ve heard on multiple occasions that she had a troubled preparation but she was only beaten 4 lengths so her engine put her there although many might believe that was her best effort.
She also ran at Aintree where she was 3rd behind INTHEPOCKET but again Nicky was interviewed and said before that race “I felt the race at Cheltenham didn’t go her way, but I think you’ll see a better mare here”
So where now for LUCCIA?
According to her trainer “I have no doubt she is destined for top honours this season and she may well stay further than two miles. She will be running in all those Mares graded hurdles and there’s no reason she shouldn’t finish up in the Mare’s Hurdle at Cheltenham in March.”
For me though, I’m desperate to see her take in a big handicap to exploit her current Official Rating of 136 because there’s reasonable evidence to suggest that while she ran well in the spring she wouldn’t have been at her best, yet she was rated 142 before Cheltenham and 138 before Aintree so that’s 6lbs I think she’s been handed very generously.
There are options at Newbury where Nicky started her last season and he’s used a 2m Listed Handicap at the end of November there to kick start the campaigns of EPATANTE and MARIE’S ROCK with the former a 137 rated mare at the time. I’d be hoping he takes that in before going back down the Graded route with her. For me, if she doesn’t achieve what he’s hoped I still think there’s room off her current mark so a big race like the Betfair Hurdle could be another target however I do think she’ll come out flying this season and I’m adamant she will end the season as a high 140’s mare at least.
TEAHUPOO (Gordon Elliott)
Demoted from second to third in last seasons Stayers Hurdle but still inside a length of the winner and showed that the 6yo is already among the highest order for staying hurdlers. 4th at Punchestown after but staying on strongly to and through the line and to be 3 lengths behind KLASSICAL DREAM around Punchestown is still a strong line of form.
Confirmed that he’ll be staying over hurdles and that Chasing wasn’t even considered following his campaign last season shows that connections know there is more to come from this horse and turning 7 for this years festival means he’s entitle to improve as much as any. He’s already a 160 rated hurdler, for me he’s proven he’s a little better than that with two RPR’s of 168 at the start of the season so with that improvement likely, and the experience he gained in the race last year, he’s my idea of the Stayers Hurdle winner in March and I think his current price of 6/1 is more than fair.
One thing worth mentioning will be the Hatton’s Grace at Fairyhouse. I believe TEAHUPOO will go there again but with Willie Mullins having IMPAIRE ET PASSE and STATEMAN as his two mile hurdlers you’d think he’ll have to face the former. We do know that HONEYSUCKLE won’t be there again, we do know that if he’s beaten by an IMPAIRE ET PASSE he might not be marked down for it with a view that he’s been beaten by a speedster but there’s potential for the market to over react. However, imagine he runs there, and performs like last season, the first horse to beat HONEYSUCKLE, and beats an IMPAIRE ET PASSE too, well then for me he’ll be a short priced favourite for the stayers and plenty will be left scratching their heads why they didn’t get on prior.
CHIANTI CLASSICO (Kim Bailey)
Mentioned over on our GG weekend watch prior to chasing debut as a potential Ultima Handicap horse in the Spring CHIANTI bolted up in a first-time tongue tie and received an 8lb rise from the Handicapper. He’ll surely have to be tested in Graded company this season and he’s not dissimilar to another Kim Bailey horse DOES HE KNOW who also started life over fences at Chepstow’s season opener before the race became a handicap. He went on to race at Cheltenham’s October and November meetings before taking in and winning the Reynoldstown at Ascot before a well beaten 19th at The Festival in the before named checked Ultima. He reached the festival with a mark of 152, however while I think CHIANTI CLASSICO will undoubtably be a better horse than his current mark of 141, he might just spend his season floating near this number before exploiting mark in the spring.
It’s worth noting that he was pulled up in the Albert Bartlett so while I like to look towards Prestbury park for the future, he might end up finding his fortune at Aintree much like HAPPYGOLUCKY did for the yard in 2021 after being a beaten favourite in The Ultima himself.
HOMETOWN BOY (Stuart Edmunds)
This might be an unlikely entry however 8yo HOMETOWN BOY is built and bred for fences however hasn’t been seen since landing a Grade 3 handicap hurdle at Aintree in 2021. He was well supported that day and won from a mark of 137 and was given a 9lb hike after. Fast forward 900+ days and he’s being entered for Handicap and Beginners Chases under a revised mark of 138. Now this horse has proven he can win big races off that sort of number so while he’s clearly had issues, he’s a more mature horse now, a likely stronger horse now and given he’s only had 8 races under rules he’s highly unexposed. I’m sure connections will mind him through the season but he’s ready to go early enough and he’s been declared a non-runner twice this month already so I think we’re going to see a pretty good effort first time up yet I’m sure he’ll only improve for the run.
Stuart Edmunds is an under-rated target trainer but make no mistake, this lad will be trained with a big race in mind and while the market might disregard him, the yard will support him when the time is right and I’m going to be a close eye on him this season and beyond.
CHAPEAU DE SOLEIL (Willie Mullins)
One time favourite for last seasons Champion Bumper he looked similar to FERNY HOLLOW when making his rules debut at Fairyhouse in December after which he wasn’t seen until March. Certainly some sort of issue was encountered there and while he was a 40/1 shot in the Champion Bumper and beaten 14th lengths he did have more behind than in front finishing 10th of 21 including a big form reversal with BETTER DAYS AHEAD who bettered him in that bumper in Fairyhouse.
He had just two behind him as they turned for home but picked off plenty and while he was a good way behind, he travelled up the home straight as quick as the 4th, 5th and 6th but the first three home just looked like speedier horses at the trip. This is where I think CHAPEAU needs to be given some credit. He’d not had an ideal preparation, he’s bred to want further (BACK ON LINE in the family who was 3rd in the 2008 NH Chase while it was still over 4 miles) so I feel this season over hurdles he’ll be able to excel when stepping up in trip and I think he’s shown enough pace at 2 miles in those bumper runs to confirm he has class and in the longer novice hurdles, that class is usually the difference between a Grade 1 runner and a Grade 1 winner. There are certainly big races in this horse going forward and I’m excited to see how he’s campaigned.
FIREFOX (Gordon Elliott)
Half brother to THE BOSSES OSCAR who is with the same owners and trainer; Beactive Stud & Gordon Elliott, who runs as a second season Novice now after just 1 spin over hurdles where he was anything but a ready made hurdler.Spent the season in bumpers after for which he improved in each run and won 2 out of 3. The horse he was beat by in the first bumper went on to run 9th in the Champion Bumper in March and the only horse to get close to him after was ILE ATLANTIQUE who beat non other than FERONILY in a bumper, that horse ended up a Grade 1 Novice chaser the same season (last season).
This horse will want a trip, and they started him over 2m 4f in that hurdle debut last season, so I’d expect more of the same before embarking on a path taking in Graded Novice races over middle to staying trips.
FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU (Gordon Elliott)
This lad is another 8yo who is lightly raced and will hopefully be embarking on a season over fences because although he didn’t win a point, he too looks bred and built for staying chases. Couple of potential options at Cheltenham if we want to get really excited in the Kim Muir, a race which his trainer Gorden Elliott does well, but also The Ultimate which is over the same sort of trip but on the Old course. The reason I mention the course is because he ran in last seasons Albert Bartlett where he was quite keen and ultimately pulled up. Now that race could end up throwing up some nice types, but there’s also a chance a number of those could be ones who didn’t finish the race. Which covers 11 of the 20 starters.
I thought he had a nice-looking mark of 137 and while he does want a trip from his breeding, that keenness I expected to lend himself to a Martin Pipe declaration. Alas, that didn’t happen, but he’s got mileage in that mark for sure, so I would be just as surprised as last season, if connections don’t look to exploit that this season, and you never know; he might just be a Pertemps type, another race the trainer knows how to win.
Lots to be excited about with this horse I think, and it’s not all about the spring with him either so lots of big handicaps in the mud could be on the agenda.
MINELLA COCOONER (Willie Mullins)
Second at Cheltenham and Punchestown in 2022 when a Novice Hurdler and both times beaten by stablemate THE NICE GUY but missed most of last season with an issue however is back and looking well according to Willie Mullins. Now this horse was a beaten favourite on his hurdling debut but took strides forward with each run and as he stepped up in trip. The same I believe will be true for his Novice Chasing campaign where he comes into this as a second season novice albeit with just the one spin under his belt. Now that improvement with racing was probably a blessing because he was second to another stablemate, CLASSIC GETAWAY, in that one run over fences last season. By any means, he’s a 7yo going on 8 who should be able to exploit that maturity and bit of experience in the Staying Novices chases this season and he will just keep improving through racing so I don’t think we’ll find his limit until the spring where he could end up a bit of a forgotten horse.
FLORIDA DREAMS (Nicky Richards)
Aftertime warning, but this horse had to make the list given I tipped him up in the Aintree Bumper where he ran out an impressive winner at 28/1. Danny McMenamin looked full of confidence that day as he held his nerve to loom on the inside and grab the rail for the end of the race but in doing so he must have known he had plenty of horse under him as it really could have been catastrophic if the door was closed. That confidence and the way the horse ran through the line would suggest he’s going to be an above average sort.
His first bumper doesn’t look that much although the runner up did win with ease on his hurdling debut, but in beating a 101 horse so you’d be disappointed if he hadn’t won that easily. However, it’s hard to put a real handle on where this horse might end up, but Nicky Richards knows how to get the best out of his runners.
FLORIDA DREAMS looks like he’ll make into a pretty useful middle-distance hurdler and if he makes the most of the Northern circuit then I don’t think there’s anything up there that could compete with him but time will tell where he stands against the best of the British Novices’.
SLADE STEEL (Henry De Bromhead)
Owner Rob Acheson stated that he thought this horse would win at Punchestown and beat BALLYBURN and still wasn’t disappointed with the effort back in third. He’s also suggested that the horse should be out in the middle of November and should be better when stepping up in trip so while he might start at 2 miles he won’t stay there.
Henry De Bromhead isn’t a trainer known for bumper runners so that can be treated as a mixed signal. Regardless, this horse has good form, a solid RPR from his point and is in the right hands to improve for obstacles. So while he might not be a Grade 1 winner come the spring, I think he’ll pick up races elsewhere through the season and there’s always a chance he ends up a Martin Pipe horse.
Dave’s 10 To Follow
- LUCCIA (Nicky Henderson)
- TEAHUPOO (Gordon Elliott)
- CHIANTI CLASSICO (Kim Bailey)
- HOMETOWN BOY (Stuart Edmunds)
- CHAPEAU DE SOLEIL (Willie Mullins)
- FIREFOX (Gordon Elliott)
- FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU (Gordon Elliott)
- MINELLA COCOONER (Willie Mullins)
- FLORIDA DREAMS (Nicky Richards)
- SLADE STEEL (Henry De Bromhead)
Check out all our other tipsters ’10 To Follow’ for the 23/24 Jumps season here:
- Andrew Mount’s 10 To Follow
- Matt Sutcliffe’s 10 To Follow
- Tom Aldridge’s 10 To Follow
- Jake Russell’s 10 To Follow
- Dan Corbally’s 10 To Follow
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