Day three of the Cheltenham Festival will take place on Thursday 14th March and the feature race of the day will be the Grade 1 Stayers’ Hurdle. Cheltenham fanatic Dave Young (AKA @cheltmentalFB on Twitter) has delved into the trends for all the day three races including the aforementioned Stayers’ Hurdle, as well as the Ryanair Chase and Turners Novices’ Chase and tries to offer you guidance on your selections with some key trends and stats to be aware of.
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Let’s get stuck into the key trends for day three of the Cheltenham Festival, where seven races will take place.
Turners Novices’ Chase (1.30pm)
- 12 of the last 13 aged 6 or 7
- 12 of the last 13 were 1st or 2nd last time out
- Last 9 winners rated 151+ including allowances
- 11 of the last 13 ran at a previous festival
- 10 of the last 13 winners Irish Trained
- 10 of the last 13 won last time out
- 9 of last 13 had won a Graded Chase
- Only 1 of the last 13 was Top Rated
Trends Pick – ZANAHIYR
Pertemps Final (2.10pm)
- 12 of the last 12 aged 8 or younger
- 16 of the last 20 ran in the last 50 days
- 15 of the last 20 winners was a double figure price
- 8 of the last 12 were rated between 138-145
- 6 of the last 10 had won that season (1 of the last 5)
- 4 of the last 11 had run at a previous festival
- Only 5 of the last 16 winners won last time out
- Just 2 of the last 16 won their qualifier (none in last 9)
Trends Pick – GOWEL ROAD
Ryanair Chase (2.50pm)
- 11 of the last 11 winners aged 7-9
- 15 of the last 16 winners were rated over 160
- 16 of the last 19 were priced sub 7/1
- 13 of the last 16 had at least placed at The Festival before
- 12 of the last 16 had won a Grade 1 Chase
- 11 of the last 16 finished first or second last time out
Trends Pick – BANBRIDGE
Stayers’ Hurdle (3.30pm)
- 30 of the last 34 winners were aged 6-8
- 21 of the last 23 had at least placed in a G1 3m hurdle
- 19 of the last 24 finished 1st or 2nd over hurdles in all runs that season
- 18 of the last 23 winners were in the top 4 of the market
- Galmoy Hurdle and Stayers double has never been done
- Since 1992, only 1 winner with headgear (SIRE DU BERLAIS last year)
- Since 2004, only 1 winner has won after being beaten in the race (SDB last year)
Trends Pick – IRISH POINT
TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase (4.10pm)
- 17 of the last 20 had raced this year
- 18 of the last 23 were double figure prices (3 of last 5 weren’t)
- 12 of the last 15 carried less 11 stone or less
- 8 of the last 13 winners had not raced at a previous Festival
- Only 1 winner since 2003 to wear headgear
Trends Pick – CREBILLY
Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (4.50pm)
- 6 of the 8 winners were Irish Trained
- 6 of the 8 have at least four runs over hurdles
- 5 of the 8 carried 11 stone 7
- 4 of the 8 were unbeaten that season
- 4 of the 8 were 5 years old
- 7 year olds or older are 0 from 21
Trends Pick – BIRDIE OR BUST
Kim Muir Handicap Chase (5.30pm)
- 19 of the last 21 did NOT win last time out
- 9 of the last 10 priced 12/1 or shorter
- 17 of the last 19 aged 7-9
- 13 of the last 15 carried at least 11 stone 4
- 19 of the last 24 ran abt 3m+ last time out
- 11 of the last 15 winners had run in February
- 13 of the last 17 ridden by non-claiming amateurs
Trends Pick – BOWTOGREATNESS
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