Dave Young has analysed all of the crucial trends to pick out the most obvious statistical selections for all of day two’s races.
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Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle (1.30pm)
- 13 of the last 14 had won a bumper
- 17 of the last 19 came from the first 4 in the market
- 19 of the last 23 were single-figure prices
- 19 of the last 23 won last time out
- 12 of the last 15 were first or second highest rated
- 12 of the last 15 had won a Graded Hurdle
- Just 3 winners older than 6 since the race formed in 1971 (curiously, each 24 years apart; 1974, 1998, 2022)
Trends Pick – READIN TOMMY WRONG
Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (2.10pm)
- The last 22 winners had run in a Graded Novices’ Chase
- 21 of the last 23 finished first or second last time out
- 16 of the last 17 placed 1st or 2nd in a G2 or better over fences
- 25 of the last 29 had only one season over hurdles
- 14 of the last 17 were 7yo’s
- Only 4 winners from the last 24 were unbeaten
- Only 3 of the last 24 had run less than 3 chase runs
Trends Pick – FACT TO FILE
Coral Cup (2.50pm)
- 18 of the last 23 winners had run less than 10 times over hurdles
- 16 of the last 19 had their last run more than 31 days ago
- 11 of the last 14 had run at Cheltenham
- 10 of the last 14 didn’t win last time out
- 10 of the last 15 were within the top 8 in the weights
- 4 of the last 5 winners wore headgear
- One winning favourite in the last 20 years
Trends Pick – SPRINGWELL BAY
Queen Mother Champion Chase (3.30pm)
- 15 of the last 15 had previously run at Cheltenham
- Last 4 winners all beaten last time out
- 21 of the last 22 had already won a Grade 1 Chase
- 17 of the last 19 ran 2-3 times that season
- 18 of the last 21 winners ran in the Calendar year
- 8 of the last 11 odds-on favourites have been beaten
- No winner in headgear for over 30 years
Trends Pick – JONBON
Cross Country Chase (4.10pm)
- 11 of the last 13 were aged 8 to 10
- 16 of the last 19 were Irish Trained
- 22 of the last 26 came from the top 3 in the market
Trends Pick – GALVIN
Grand Annual Handicap Chase (4.50pm)
- 12 of the last 12 last ran 30 days or more ago
- Only 1 of last 17 won last time out
- 17 of the last 19 hadn’t won a Handicap Chase that season
- 20 of the last 24 carried less than 11 stone 5
- 10 of the last 14 were not in the top 5 in the market
Trends Pick – SA FUREUR
Champion Bumper (5.30pm)
- The last 20 winners had won last time out
- Last 9 winners had won in double-figure sized fields
- 17 of the last 18 were aged 5 or 6
- 7 of the last 8 winners ran in February
- 24 of the last 31 were Irish Trained
Trends Pick – CANTICO
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