GG tipster Andrew Mount begins a new series of columns where he seeks to bust some popular betting myths with a view to finding some value winners. Today he looks at the draw on Lingfield’s All Weather track and whether it really is an advantage to be positioned alongside the inside rail.
There’s some excellent racing to look forward to this week – why not take advantage of BetMGM’s fantastic new customer offer? Sign up here, place a £10 bet and receive £40 in free bets!
MYTH BUSTERS: Are low draws really favoured at Lingfield?
The inside rail often rides ‘dead’ on the Polytrack course at Lingfield, putting those drawn low, especially front-runners who tend to migrate to the deeper/slower part of track, at a disadvantage. Despite this, it is common to hear commentators and pundits use expressions such as ‘horse X has the advantage of the inside rail’ or ‘horse Y is well drawn in stall 1’. This winter (since November 1st, 2023) stall 1 has provided just six winners from 97 runners (6.2% strike-rate) for a loss of £47.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. The expected number of winners, based on their Starting Price, was 10.11 giving an A/E (actual over expected) score of 0.59). Stall 2 has an identical six from 97 record for a loss of £69.21 (expected winners = 10.06, A/E = 0.60).
This bias has been in play for several years now and, while we get the occasional meeting where the inside rail is the place to be, we’d have lost a fortune by backing stalls 1 and 2 blind since the beginning of 2018, with only 581 winners from 5154 bets (11.3%) for a loss of £1669.96 to a £1 level stake at SP (-32.4% on turnover). Laying these horses at Betfair SP, after 2% commission, would have returned a profit of £676.04 (+13.12% on turnover). Laying favourites drawn in stalls 1 or 2 at Betfair SP yielded a 17.52% profit in the same period. Stall 3 has also not been an ideal draw either, with 314 winners from 2569 bets (12.2%) since the start of 2018 for a loss of £808.92 to £1 (-31.49% on turnover).
If laying horses is not your modus operandi then how can you profit from this information? The obvious solution is to look at what happened to those Lingfield stall 1 and stall 2 runners on their next outing. Since the beginning of 2018, 561 of the 4778 qualifiers (11.74%) won at the next time of asking – greater than the expected number of winners of 536.47 (A/E =1.05) – but we’d still have recorded a loss of £1125.65 at SP (-23.56% on turnover). However, had we only sided with those won at Lingfield last time, despite emerging from one of the two lowest stalls, we’d have landed 130 of our 572 bets (23.7%) and made a much smaller loss of £35.47 (-6.2%) on turnover. At Betfair SP, we’d have turned a profit of £38.47 after commission (+£6.73). Backing only those low-drawn last-time-out Lingfield winners when they ran in another all-weather race would have found 115 winners from 426 bets (27%) for a profit of £58.13 at SP (+£125.66 at Betfair SP).
Since November 1st, only 12 horses have won from stalls 1 or 2 on Lingfield’s Polytrack…
Horse / SP/ subsequent runs
Placo / 4-6 / no runs
Royal Tapestry / 5-2 / 4th 5-1 (entered at Southwell on Thursday, Jan 11th)
Havechatma / 20-1 / WON 11-1
Alacrity / 11-1 / no runs
Blue Trail / 4-1 / no runs
Mashaaer / 1-4 / no runs
Finn Russell / 6-1 / 5th 7-2, 5th 9-2, WON 5-4
Intervention / 5-2 / WON 7-1, 2nd 8-11 (runs 7.00 Southwell, Jan 9th)
Storymaker / 85-40 / WON 5-1
Bang On The Bell / 4-1 / no runs (entered at Chelmsford on Saturday, Jan 13th)
All Agleam / 13-2 / no runs
Maysan / 6-1 / no runs (entered at Southwell on Thursday, Jan 11th)
…in summary, four of the five winners to have run since have won (11-1, 6-1, 5-1 and 5-4) and that record could be further enhanced this week.
10 To Follow – Andrew Mount’s Horses To Follow For The 23/24 Jumps Season
The 2023/24 Jumps Season is underway and we’ve got all our team to give their ’10 to follow’ for the NH season. GG’s chief tipster Andrew Mount is the next to give his selections, which include two runners from champion trainer Paul Nicholls yard, as well as last season’s Irish Grand National winner. BYKER (Charles…
Wed 25 Oct 2023Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.