In his new weekly column, Andrew Mount continues to bust any strongly held myths regarding betting in horse racing. Last week’s article saw him address the improvement of horses after a wind operation, while this week he looks in greater detail at trainer Gary Moore’s horses and their ability to win further away from his yard in Sussex.
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Gary Moore has a reputation for saddling plenty of winners at venues local to his Sussex base, especially Fontwell and Plumpton, and I’ve heard it voiced on more than one occasion that his horses ‘don’t travel’ (i.e. they underperform when asked to race a long way from home).
There are six courses within a 30-mile radius of Moore’s stable – Brighton, Epsom, Fontwell, Goodwood, Lingfield and Plumpton – and, since the beginning of 2014, backing the yard’s runners blind at these tracks would have found 479 winners from 3163 bets (15.1% strike-rate) for a loss of £342.19 to a £1 level stake at SP (-10.82% on turnover). That loss would have been turned into a profit of £611.30 (after 2% commission) had we backed all the qualifiers at Betfair SP. The strike-rate has exceeded 17% in three of the last four complete years and, at the time of writing, was 25% for 2024.
If we look at Moore’s British runners at other venues during the study period, that 15.1% strike-rate becomes 11.62% (455 winners from 3915 runners) for a loss of £831.88 to a £1 level stake at SP (-21.25% on turnover), though we’d still have turned a profit at Betfair SP (+£231.57, +5.91%).
Splitting the above 3195 runners by market position makes interesting reading – those who started as favourite (including, joint and co favourites) won 185 of their 467 starts (39.61%) for a profit of £51.95 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£89.76 at Betfair SP), whereas those with an SP ranking of two or higher won just 7.83% of their starts (270 winners from 3448 bets, -£883.83, -25.63% on turnover). The loss on turnover with his non-favourites does seem to increase as we get further from Moore’s yard, with those travelling over 100 miles landing just 103 of their 1323 starts (7.79% strike-rate, -£477.78 to a £1 level stake at SP, -36.11% on turnover). Market leaders who were shipped more than 100 miles to the races enjoyed a very high strike-rate of 45.15% thanks to 107 winners from 237 bets (+£66.26 to a £1 level stake at SP, +27.96% on turnover). The tracks that stand out are Huntingdon (20 winners from 38, +£15.24), Bath (eight from 15, +£12.75) and Cheltenham (six from 12, +£13.73). The chasers at Cheltenham recorded form figures of 111311F (5-7) for a profit of £17.00.
In summary, think twice about backing Gary Moore runners away from Brighton, Epsom, Fontwell, Goodwood, Lingfield and Plumpton, though market position trumps mileage where his long travellers are concerned.
Andrew Mount’s Myth Busters – Are Low Draws Really Favoured at Lingfield?
GG tipster Andrew Mount begins a new series of columns where he seeks to bust some popular betting myths with a view to finding some value winners. Today he looks at the draw on Lingfield’s All Weather track and whether it really is an advantage to be positioned alongside the inside rail. There’s some excellent…
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