As GG continue to look towards the Cheltenham Festival 2024, Andrew Mount’s most recent Myth Busters column looked at whether Festival experience was useful for finding winners. This week, he turns his attention to a particular race, namely, the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, and whether it is really as much of a lottery as is made out.
The Fred Winter has been part of the Cheltenham festival for 19 years and with nine winners priced between 25-1 and 80-1, punters could be forgiven for putting a line through the race and quickly moving on. The race seems to be getting progressively more difficult from a betting perspective and simply backing all 266 runners in the past 12 renewals would have seen us make a profit of £60.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (+22.74% on turnover). At Betfair SP, the profit was £226.33 after 2% commission (+85.09% on turnover).
I’m not advocating that we take that approach at next month’s festival, but I hope to prove that, if we dig beneath the surface, we can come up with a manageable shortlist of genuine contenders and see this as a race to look forward to rather than one to avoid.
Profile of Previous Winners
Broadly speaking there are two types of Fred Winter winner – one, those who drop in grade after running in Graded juvenile contests, in which they usually struggled to get involved under patient tactics, and two, those brought along gradually who had often won a low-grade contest on their third outing over hurdles.
Finishing Position Last Time Out
Since 2012, backing all horses who finished fourth or worse in their prep race would have found seven of 12 winners since 2012 for a profit of £194.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£341.37 at Betfair SP). The expected number of winners based on their SPs was 2.04, giving an actual over expected (A/E) score of 3.43. This simple method found 80-1 shot Jeff Kidder from five qualifiers in 2021, 33-1 winner Flying Tiger, again from five qualifiers, in 2017 and, in 2018, the three qualifiers included 33-1 scorer Veneer Of Charm and 12-1 runner-up Style De Garde. The Tote Exacta paid a whopping £642.10 to £1. Last year’s 18-1 winner Jazzy Matty was one of eight runners to meet the criteria. Four of the seven winners had contested a Grade 1 or Grade 2 contest on their latest outing whereas those who ran in a handicap hurdle were 0-15.
Last-time out winners won four of the other five Fred Winters in the 12-year study period, though backing all 70 qualifiers would have returned a loss of £20.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. However, backing the ones who won a Class 4 hurdle would have found four winners from 49 bets for a tiny profit (+£1.00).
Those who fall in between the above two profiles (i.e. the ones who finished second or third in their prep race in Britain/Ireland) are 0-159 in the 19 runnings of the Fred Winter (expected winners = 6.71). The Paul Nicholls-trained Diego Du Charmil, the 13-2 winner in 2016, had finished second in France on his most recent start.
Running Style
Patient tactics are usually required to win the Fred Winter and nine of the 12 winners (from 177 runners) in the study period came from off the pace (+£85.50). Front-runners failed to notch a single win (-£13.00), while prominent racers recorded three wins from 75 runners (-£11.00). Last-time out running style isn’t always the best guide, as tactics can change, but those who made the running in their prep race (provided it was in Britain/Ireland – my database doesn’t contain running styles for French imports) were just two from 54 (£24.00). Horses ridden patiently in their prep race were five from 87 (+£52.50), with the ones who had raced within the past five weeks winning five from 45 (+£94.50).
Summary
- Consider all horses who finished fourth or worse last time out, especially if that was in a Graded contest
- Only consider last-time out winners if they prepped in a Class 4 contest
- Give preference to horses who were ridden patiently in their prep race
- Avoid runners who finished second or third in their prep run
- Don’t be put off by a big price!
Early contenders
The Willie Mullins-trained BATMAN GIRAC, who kept on to finish a 33-1 length fourth in Grade 2 company at Leopardstown on Boxing Day, is an obvious contender though is priced accordingly (7-1 best at the time of writing).
Jane Williams’ KNIGHT OF ALLEN was carried out just after the first flight when debuting in Grade 2 company at Cheltenham in November and then finished a fine second to Liari in a Listed hurdle at Aintree. He’s due to run in a Class 4 hurdle at Doncaster this Thursday (February 8th).
EXCELERO, a stablemate of Knight Of Allen, had ‘Fred Winter’ stamped all over him when making steady late progress into fourth place behind Sir Gino on Trials Day and is another who could end up winning a low-grade contest before a crack at this race.
Andrew Mount’s Myth Busters: Cheltenham Festival Experience is vital to future Cheltenham Festival success
Last week, Andrew Mount’s Myth Busting column took aim at the theory that Gary Moore’s horses don’t travel well. In the most recent instalment, he starts to look ahead to the 2024 Cheltenham Festival, as some popular misconceptions about previous Festival experience are held to account. With the Dublin Racing Festival coming later this week…
Tue 30 Jan 2024Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
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