Andrew Mount’s weekly myth busters column continues to look in more detail at some of the big races at the Cheltenham Festival 2024. Last week, he discussed the “lottery” of the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, and looks this week at the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle to determine whether it is truly impossible to fathom and a graveyard for punters.
The Spa Novices’ Hurdle – better known as the Albert Bartlett (or the ‘potato race’) – has been part of the Cheltenham festival since 2005. This three-mile contest was awarded Grade 1 status in 2008 and has proved to be one of the trickiest Cheltenham contests for punters. Getting through to the next leg of the Placepot is hard enough, let alone finding the winner, and last year’s one-to-three were priced at 18-1, 150-1 and 28-1 which helped to contribute to Placepot dividend of £23,672.80. Nine of the past ten winners were sent off at double-figure odds, including 50-1 and 33-1 (twice).
Like with the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, discussed in this column last week, we could have backed all 287 runners on the 16 occasions this race was run as a Grade 1 contest and made a profit (+£1.25 to a £1 level stake at SP, +£166.79 at Betfair SP after 2% commission). However, there are a few stats and trends that can help us to narrow the field and perhaps even help us to identify the winner next month.
Finishing Position Last Time Out
Last-time out winners have taken seven of the 16 Grade 1 runnings of the Albert Bartlett, though backing all 147 qualifiers would have returned a loss of £79.75 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 11.46, A/E = 0.61). Eight of the 16 winners finished second, third or fourth in their prep race, with the other winner finishing tenth.
Prep Race
13 of the 16 winners contested a Grade 1, 2 or 3 race in their final start before the festival.
Days Since Last Run
Those who raced within the past 28 days were just one from 64 (2012 winner Brindisi Breeze).
Running Style
Horses ridden patiently in their final start before Cheltenham had an eight from 91 record since 2008 for a profit of £59.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 4.95). This simple angle identified the 18-1 winner and 150-1 runner-up from just two qualifiers last year (the Tote Exacta paid £2,820 to a £1 stake).
System
Backing horses who finished second, third or fourth in their prep race, who had been off the track for more than four weeks, would have found eight winners from 65 bets for a huge profit of £141.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those qualifiers ridden patiently in their prep race were five from 22 for a profit of £84.00 (expected winners = 1.19).
At the time of writing there were 63 entries and the ante-post market was dominated by last-time-out winners, with seven of the first eight in the betting scoring on their latest start. Those who look interesting based on the stats discussed above include JOHNYWHO, fourth to Gidleigh Park on Trials Day and crying out for the step up to 3m, PREDATORS GOLD, who will be happier given a big field/strong pace scenario after his Dublin Racing Festival defeat, STELLAR STORY, WELCOME TO CARTRIES and MAXI MAC GOLD.
Andrew Mount’s Myth Busters: Is the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Really a Lottery?
As GG continue to look towards the Cheltenham Festival 2024, Andrew Mount’s most recent Myth Busters column looked at whether Festival experience was useful for finding winners. This week, he turns his attention to a particular race, namely, the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, and whether it is really as much of a lottery as is…
Tue 06 Feb 2024Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.