We are learning more and more about the 2024 Cheltenham Festival as the days go by, and Andrew Mount continues to offer his guides to some crucial misgivings about the meeting. Last week, he took a broader view of how stats can prove a multitude of views, but looks in more granular detail at the Grand Annual Handicap Chase for this week’s column.
A quick glance at the past ten renewals of the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase suggests that the race is something of a lottery – we’ve only had one winning favourite, 7-2 shot Chosen Mate in 2020, with the other winners priced at 66-1, 28-1, 28-1, 22-1, 16-1, 16-1, 14-1, 10-1 and 15-2. However, by using stats and trends we can reduce this year’s 38 entries to a manageable shortlist and hopefully land on the winner…
Age
The last ten winners were aged between six and 12 and trying to eliminate runners on aged ground seems fruitless.
Days Since Last Run
In the last ten years, 38 runners arrived at Cheltenham on the back of a recent outing (within the past 28 days) and all were beaten. Backing all runners who had been off the track for 29 days or longer would have hit all ten winners (from 166 bets) and made a profit of £55.00 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Finishing Position Last Time Out
Last-time out winners were just one from 40 in the past ten renewals for a loss of £35.50.
Market Position Last Time Out
All ten winners started in the top five in the betting market on their latest start and backing all the qualifiers would have returned a profit of £70.00. Those who were sixth or higher in the market in their prep race were 0-53.
Weight Rank
They tend to go like the clappers in this race and the strong pace can take its toll on those at the head of the weights, regardless of whether it was on the New Course or the Old Course (as it has been for the last three years). Those ranked first, second or third in the weights are 1-72 this century, with the sole winner back in 2007 and he only carried 10-11.
Sire’s Country of Breeding
Seven of the past ten winners had a British sire from a sample of 78 runners (+£56.50 to a £1 level stake at SP, expected winners = 3.85, A/E = 1.82). Irish-sired runners were one from 52, French one from 38 and US one from 27.
Jockey Claim
Jockeys claiming an allowance were 0-26.
Owner
Leading owner J P McManus has had 30 runners in this race in the past ten years and those to start at odds of 9-1 or shorter recorded the following finishing positions:
2023 – 2nd 7-2, 9th, 9-2
2022 – 2nd 100-30
2021 – 2nd 7-1
2019 – 3rd 8-1, 11th 8-1
2018 – WON 15-2
2017 – 8th 7-2
2017 – 4th 4-1
2014 – 2nd 6-1, Fell 7-1
Worth remembering if you’re having a crack at the Placepot on Wednesday
System
Backing those who had been rested for more than four weeks, were beaten last time out when starting in the top five in the betting, were fourth or lower in the weights and whose jockey didn’t claim an allowance would haver found nine winners from 77 bets in the past ten years for a profit of £139.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 4.20, A/E = 2.14).
Andrew Mount’s Myth Busters: The Albert Bartlett is a Graveyard for Punters
Andrew Mount’s weekly myth busters column continues to look in more detail at some of the big races at the Cheltenham Festival 2024. Last week, he discussed the “lottery” of the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, and looks this week at the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle to determine whether it is truly impossible to fathom and…
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