GG tipster Andrew Mount kicked off last week with his new Myth Busters column, that saw him look at low draws at Lingfield. Now, he delves into the world of wind operations and asks does a horse improve for having them? He also picks out some trainers to watch when their horses have had wind ops!
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Since wind operations had to be declared (January 2018), we’ve seen plenty of high-profile horses land big races on their first run following the surgery, with Shishkin’s demolition of Pic D’Orhy in last season’s Grade 1 Ascot Chase being a prime example. Post-race, the question often posed is ‘will the effect of the wind operation wear off?’
We’re approaching the sixth anniversary of wind-op declarations and now have a sample of 8343 qualifiers to study (prior to racing on Tuesday, January 16th), though sadly we still lack information as to the type of wind surgery involved. At the lower end of the scale is a soft palate procedure that might be repeated every year, whereas a Hobday could last for the remainder of a horse’s career.
So, what happened to those 8343 runners on their first run back following wind surgery? They recorded 904 wins (10.84% strike-rate) but we would have made a loss of £1727.99 had we backed them blind at SP (-20.71% on turnover), though this became a small profit of £141.78 (+1.7%) at Betfair SP (after 2% commission).
The strike-rate improved for those having their second start after a wind operation, with 867 winners from 7420 bets (11.68%) for a loss of £1220.23 to a £1 level stake at SP (-16.45% on turnover). At Betfair SP a profit of £785.62 (+10.59%) was secured after commission. One theory put forward for the improved strike-rate is that being able to breath comfortably at the business end of a race can come as something of a shock to the system and the horse needs a run to get used to this. The other obvious conclusion is that horses often undergo wind surgery prior to their seasonal debuts and were not 100% fit.
I’ve found that the best way to profit with horses having their second start after a wind operation is to concentrate on trainers who specialise with such runners…
Neil Mulholland has a 17 from 75 record for a profit of £23.73 (expected winners = 10.67, A/E = 1.78), with the chasers who returned at an SP of 9-1 or shorter recording form figures of 111112111244P (8-13) for a profit of £20.02.
Harry Fry’s runners, who finished in the top three on their first run after a wind operation, have a 14 from 37 record second time back for a small profit of £2.10, improving to 13 from 19 in non-handicaps for a profit of £17.90.
Jeremy Scott (eight from 20, +£28.38), Nick Alexander (nine from 38, +£14.13) and Olly Murphy (28 from 113, £15.74) are other jumps trainers to look out for.
On the Flat, Richard Hannon (seven from 31, +£66.58) and Robert Cowell (three from four, +£52.78) are names to note.
Breeding is another angle to study and Midnight Legend handicap hurdlers are ten from 39 for a profit of £41.00, improving to eight from 25 (+£50.00) over 2m4f or further.
Andrew Mount’s Myth Busters – Are Low Draws Really Favoured at Lingfield?
GG tipster Andrew Mount begins a new series of columns where he seeks to bust some popular betting myths with a view to finding some value winners. Today he looks at the draw on Lingfield’s All Weather track and whether it really is an advantage to be positioned alongside the inside rail. There’s some excellent…
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