The 2023 Breeders’ Cup gets underway on Friday at 9pm, with a host of UK & Irish raiders in attendance alongside French, Japanese and of course the home team, team USA! The European runners have a rich history on the turf and will be looking to enhance their strike-rate, with Aidan O’Brien in particular sitting on 16 Breeders’ Cup winners and no doubt aiming for more!
GG writer and contributor Dan Corbally is on hand to give his analysis and thoughts on the British & Irish runners along with a look at some of the home team representatives and provides us with his bets and his multiple for Day 1 (Friday) of the Breeders Cup – keep an eye out for his Day 2 (Saturday) selections later in the week.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Grade 1)
BIG EVS has become a real fan favourite in the UK this season, bursting on the scene when landing the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot in great style. He’s a 7/2 favourite at the time of writing and is a very attractive proposition. He was aimed highly after his Molecomb Stakes win, taking his chance in the Nunthorpe against his elders, but sadly disappointing despite being a warm order in the market. He showed his true colours in no uncertain terms in the Flying Childers, clocking a 10.71s second furlong having broken extremely well, he was still able to quicken off that while most of his rivals were in trouble already! This represents a new test, running around a bend for the first time, but his latest performance bodes well with regard to this assignment. If he can replicate that flash break he should be able to adopt his preferred prominent position and will have no problem upping the tempo.
Valiant Force is another Royal Ascot winner who looks set to take his chance, he caused a major shock when landing the Norfolk Stakes at 150/1. That form is looking suspect for the level but he ran a satisfactory race upped to Group 1 level in the Prix Morny, finishing 5th, beaten nearly 10 lengths behind Vandeek. He’s missed a couple of assignments since that effort on account of the ground and coughing and the suspicion is he’ll need to take another step forward here.
Tiger Belle arrives in search of a hat-trick at pattern level having landed a Listed level in her native Ireland and a Group 3 in France. Her latest two wins were by narrow margins but she’s a filly on the improve and needs respect. Starlust is another on the improve, graduating from handicaps to a Group 3 win in the Sirenia Stakes before a fair fifth in the Middle Park.
Cherry Blossom can’t be ignored given she hails from Ballydoyle and Aidan O’Brien’s tremendous Breeders’ Cup CV, she needs to improve on what we’ve seen so far, but this drop in drip does spike the interest as she’s been just wilting late on over six & seven furlongs in recent effort.
Another Irish runner trying to cut back in trip is Jessica Harrington’s Givemethebeatboys. He’s run some top races at Group 1 level the last twice in the Middle Park (4th) & Phoenix Stakes (3rd) and ran well in the Coventry Stakes (4th) at Royal Ascot prior to that. The cut back to five furlongs shouldn’t hold much fear given the pace he’s shown but he could certainly do without dwelling at the start as he has done the last twice.
Not technically one for the UK and Ireland as Crimson Advocaterepresents the home team but she does have some British form that points towards her having a big chance in this contest. She took the Queen Mary in gritty fashion, holding on by a nose from the fast-finishing Relief and she’s been given time to recover from that. Like the selection, Big Evs, she looks like one who’ll go forward to lead early and that could set up an all out shoot-out with Big Evs for the win in this contest.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1)
Carla’s Way heads the market for this on the back of her win in the Rockfel, when beating subsequent Group 1 Fillie’s Mile winner, Ylang Ylang. She was right behind a breakneck gallop that day and was perfectly placed to take advantage of that collapse, keeping Shuwari at bay. She was behind Porta Fortuna in the Albany but interestingly was sent off favourite for that contest. She was given a break along with a wind-op after that and she hasn’t looked back. Her latest runs since have both come over seven furlongs but this extra furlong should hold no fears based on that Rockfel performance.
While Carla’s Way is an attractive proposition, it’s PORTA FORTUNA who really catches the eye. She’s danced plenty of big dances this season and has run and hasn’t been out of the places (deadheatted third on one occasion) in her six runs to date. Those runs include a win in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot & the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes, alongside a second in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes and a respectable third in the Moyglare. The fear is that the mile may stretch her out but the manner of her two wins in the Albany and Cheveley Park Stakes suggest it could be within range. She travelled very sweetly on both of those occasions and when asked to seal the deal she’s just gradually put them to the sword with the feeling she had more in the locker if needed. If she can sustain her run in this contest, her attitude and style of running will be very hard to beat. Her dam was a winner at up to 1m4f and at 6/1 at the time of writing she looks a good play.
Aidan O’Brien shared the bad news that Opera Singer would miss this engagement over the last week and he’s represented by Content instead. She was a surprise package last time out, turning the tables with Kitty Rose on their previous encounter and streaking away with the Group 3 Staffordstown Stud Stakes at 20/1. That was the first time at the mile and having been keen in some previous starts, she really consented to wait early on before coming with a strong late run to score. She’s certainly bred to compete at this level, by Galileo out of Mecca’s Angel and it wouldn’t be a massive shock if she kept on improving.
The most prominent in the market for the American team is She Feels Pretty. She’s had just the two starts in her career, graduating from a Maiden success to the Group 1 Natalma Stakes at Woodbine, streaking away there to score by more than four lengths. She had Charlie Appleby’s Dazzling Star in third that day, beating her nearly 7 lengths. That gives a strong look to the form, given she was fourth in the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot.
Les Pavots represents Francis-Henri Graffard and France here and could be a spot of value at 14/1. She was behind the previously mentioned Opera Singer on her latest start, staying on well without troubling that runaway leader. That answered the question if a mile would suit her having raced over shorter. Prior to that she’d appreciate the step up to seven furlongs, taking out a Listed contest & the Group 2 Prix Du Calvados from Ornellaia, with that runner since dead-heatting with Porta Fortuna in the Moyglare Stakes.
Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1)
The market has Unquestionable (11/4) to the fore at the moment, but it’s arguable if he’ll go off favourite with his stablemate River Tiber (5/1) also vying for the no.1 spot. A lot will depend on jockey bookings, but no one can question the level of ability the current favourite has shown. He was beaten a shorthead in the Group 2 Railway Stakes, before fourth in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes before stepping up to seven furlongs yielded another second in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. It’s hard to know whether this step up in trip will suit, given he was just run down late in the day by Rosallion on his latest run, but if he does improve for it, he’s a key player.
RIVER TIBER is the selection here despite quite a big venture into the unknown with a two furlong stretch in trip. He was too keen to do himself justice behind Vandeek in the Middle Park and was previously an eye-catching third in the Prix Morny behind the same rival, shaping as though he may want a step up in trip but also like he’d step forward for the run. That didn’t prove to be the case in the Middle Park but he retains plenty of potential now getting that step up in trip. The track poses a different question, having raced only on big galloping straight tracks,but if he can adapt to that he’ll have a huge chance of enhancing his trainer’s fine record at The Breeders’ Cup.
The last of the trio for the Ballydoyle Battalion is Mountain Bear. He doesn’t possess the same level of form as his two stablemates and from what we’ve seen doesn’t possess the level of ability. However unlike that pairing he has experience racing around a bend on his latest start, which was a winning one at Listed level at Dundalk. Prior to that he’d run respectable races at Group level, with the pick of those coming in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood & Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster.
Carson’s Run looks the most likely from the domestic challengers, he won on debut at Saratoga before going close at Grade 3 level at the same course. But it was his latest start that stamped his credentials for a race like this, winning the Grade 1 bet365 Summer Stakes over a mile at Woodbine. Unlike the Euro team he has no stamina concerns and at 12/1 he could return each-way backers. Endlessly is unbeaten in so far, landing a couple of Group 3 races over course and distance and will make a bold bid to enhance his record while Agate is also improving for the powerhouse Pletcher stable.
Elsewhere On The Card
Elsewhere on the card TAMARA runs in the NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (9:00pm Grade 1) and as her odds of 5/4 suggest is very much the one to beat. She stepped into Grade 1 company on the back of her maiden and immediately delivered. She’s by Bolt D’Oro out of the extremely talented Beholder and has everything going for her. LOCKED (11:00pmFanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance – Grade 1) is another with a similar profile who confirmed the promise of her maiden success when backing up a Grade 1 next time out but she faces plenty of stern opposition, from fellow Grade 1 performers Timberlake form the Brad Cox yard & Muth from the Bob Baffert yard.
Recommended Bets
9.00 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Grade 1) – BIG EVS (3/1 generally)
9.40 NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) – TAMARA (10/11 generallly)
10.20 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) – PORTA FORTUNA (11/2 generally)
11.00 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) – LOCKED (7/2 generally)
11.40 Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) – RIVER TIBER (3/1 generally)
£5 Trixie (£20 total) – BIG EVS, RIVER TIBER & PORTA FORTUNA – Returns £860
Frankie Dettori has plenty of big rides lined up for the Breeders’ Cup meeting, including:
- Inspiral (Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf)
- Starlust (Juvenile Turf Sprint)
- Unequestionable (Juvenile Turf)
- King Of Steel (Breeders’ Cup Turf)
- Zandon (Breeders’ Cup Classic)
USA Hall of Fame jockey Angel Cordero – the original ‘flying dismount’ celebration jockey, spoke to OLBG to give his thoughts on Frankie’s impending move to the USA:
“I’m glad he is riding in the Breeders’ Cup. I wonder about the other Classics as well, winning those over here in the US. Maybe that is something he might look to go after. It’s all up to him now, and how much fire he still has and what he wants to do. It is hard to start riding all year round if he wants to find a Kentucky Derby horse. I think he still has the tools but it is up to him, he has to say yes. If he wants to continue to find a Kentucky Derby horse and he is flying here, there and everywhere, it is better for him to stay in the US after the Breeders’ Cup but he would have to ride all year around.
“If I was him and I was healthy, with the business that he has got, I would take it easy but also stay maybe riding the big races around Europe, hang around and see if he can pick up one of those rides. There could be more options here in the US for him too, with the likes of Bob Baffert, Steve Asmussen, maybe he could target the Kentucky Derby.He is a beautiful person, he loves talking to people, he is very creative and very positive when you talk to him. He’s so funny, he never gives you any problems. You can talk to him about anything and he is always so positive. People really liked him, he has charisma, he has everything you need to become the best and that is why he is one of the best.”
“In my mind, and from watching jockeys ride all over the world, Frankie is one of the best I ever saw. I am a big fan of him, John Velazquez and Irad Oritz – they are the best riders right now. There are a lot of good riders in this era and Frankie is one of the best I have ever seen. Him and William Buick at the moment, for me, are two of the very best out there.”
10 To Follow – Dan Corbally’s Horses To Follow For The 23/24 Jumps Season
The 2023/24 Jumps Season is underway and we’ve got all our team to give their ’10 to follow’ for the NH season. Our final 10 To Follow comes from GG writer Dan Corbally, who puts up some intriguing runners away from the likelier bigger names from other horses to follow lists. JOHNNYWHO (Jonjo O’Neill) We…
Fri 27 Oct 2023Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
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