In part 4 of our Cheltenham Trends Guides, our stats man Andrew Mount comes from an intriguing angle in the Triumph Hurdle and has selections for other races on the final day of the festival, including the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
1.30 – JCB Triumph Hurdle
Recent winners
Year / Horse / SP / Prep race
2014 /Tiger Roll / 10-1 / 2nd Spring Hurdle (Grade 1 Leopardstown)
2013 / Our Connor / 4-1 / WON Spring Hurdle (Grade 1 Leopardstown)
2012 / Countrywide Flame / 33-1 / 3rd Spring Hurdle (Grade 1 Leopardstown)
2011 / Zarkandar / 13-2 / WON Adonis Hurdle (Grade 2 Kempton)
2010 / Soldatino / 6-1 / WON Adonis Hurdle (Grade 2 Kempton)
Summary
The last five winners all contested the Grade 1 Spring Hurdle at Leopardstown or the Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle at Kempton
The last five winners all ran first, second or third in the above mentioned races
Beltor led home All Yours and Bivouac in the Adonis despite racing keenly.
He wasn’t exactly top grade on the Flat, landing just a Class 5 Redcar handicap when with Sir Mark Prescott, but is clearly much better over jumps and has to be respected.
This year, the Spring Hurdle (run at Leopardstown on 8 February) was won by the Willie Mullins-trained Petite Parisienne, who beat shorter-priced stablemate Kalkir into second.
Prussian Eagle, not entered for the Triumph but 16-1 for the Fred Winter, ran third and the trio pulled 20 lengths clear of the remainder.Petite Parisienne did something unusual in that race – she won a Grade 1 hurdle on her first start since winning a maiden hurdle. In the past ten years 96 horses have attempted this feat and only 12 pulled it off. This is what happened to them on their next start after their Grade 1 success…
Boston Bob WON 9-4 (Grade 1)
Briar Hill WON 1-3 (Grade 2)
Hollo Ladies 4th 3-1 (Grade 2)
Minella Class 2nd 8-11f (
Nicholls Canyon UR 4-6f (Grade 1), ** WON a Grade 1 at 9-2 on his next completed start
Oscars Well WON 7-1 (Grade 1)
Royal Boy – no subsequent runs
Shinrock Paddy PU 8-1 (Grade 1)
Sous Les Cieux 3rd 4-9f (Grade 1)
The Tullow Tank WON 9-4 (Grade 1)
Unaccompanied 2nd 9-2 (Grade 1, Triumph Hurdle)
Zaidpour 2nd 1-4f (Grade 1)
Five of the 11 to run since scored on their next completed start and another was runner-up in the Triumph. Petite Parisienne looks decent each-way value at around the 10-1 mark.
Selection: Petite Parisienne
2.40 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
Recent winners
Year / Horse / SP / Hurdles form
2014 / Very Wood / 33-1 / 1253
2013 / At Fishers Cross / 11-8f / 251111
2012 / Brindisi Breeze / 7-1 / 111
2011 / Bobs Worth /15-8f / 111
2010 / Berties Dream / 33-1 / 708P5213112F34
Summary
Three of the last four winners scored on their most recent start
Four of the last five winners had won at least three times over hurdles
Definitly Red did best of the British-trained runners when seventh in last season’s
Champion Bumper and confirmed his liking for Cheltenham when landing a Listed bumper on his reappearance this term. He moved from Steve Gollings to Brian Ellison after an odds-on hurdle-debut defeat at Newcastle and has since won two from two, latterly in the Grade 2 Prestige Novices’ Hurdle at Haydock, a race the ill-fated Brindisi Breeze landed before his 2012 Albert Bartlett victory.
Selection: Definitely Red
3.20 – Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup
Recent winners
Year / Horse / SP/ Age / Career form in month of March
2014 / Lord Windermere / 8yo / 20-1 / 11
2013 / Synchronised / 9yo / 8-1 / 1F13
2012 / Bobs Worth / 8yo / 11-4 / 11
2011 / Long Run / 6yo / 7-2f / 13
2010 / Imperial Commander / 9yo / 7-1 / 71
Summary
All five winners were nine or younger
All had won during March previously
Spring horse Lord Windermere, winner of the 2013 RSA Chase, took his record during the month of March to: 111 (3-3) when landing the Gold Cup last year. He bounced back to form when third in the Lexus last month, trading at odds-on in running when leading two out. That will have put him spot on and he should give another good account.
Holywell has won the Pertemps Final and the Grade 3 Handicap (3m) at the last two festivals and stepped up to land a Grade 1 at Aintree last April. If we include his point-to-point form, his record over 3m or further reads: 3122124111U1 (7-12), improving to: 111U1 (4-5) in chases under Rules.
Shortlist: Holywell, Lord Windermere
4.40 – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle
Recent winners
Year / Horse / SP/ Age / Weight / Prep race
2014 / Don Poli / 12-1 / 5yo / 11-05 / WON Grade 3
2013 / Salubrious / 16-1 / 6yo / 11-05 / WON Class 3
2012 / Attaglance / 20-1 / 6yo / 11-03 / WON Class 3
2011 / Sir Des Champs / 9-2f / 5yo / 11-03 / WON Conditions race
2010 / Pause And Clause / 14-1 / 6yo / 11-10 / Unseated rider Grade 2
Summary
The last five winners were aged five or six
Four of the last five winners scored on their most recent start (the other one unseated)
All carried 11-03 or more
5.15 – Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase
Recent winners
Year / Horse / SP/ Age / Weight / Number of previous chase runs
2014 / Savello / 16-1 / 8yo / 11-05 / nine
2013 / Alderwood / 3-1f / 9yo / 10-11 / four
2012 / Bellvano / 20-1 / 8yo / 10-02 / five
2011 / Oiseau De Nuit / 40-1 / 9yo / 10-13 / twenty
2010 / Pigeon Island / 16-1 / 7yo / 10-1 / seven
Summary
Four of the last five winners had raced fewer than ten times over fences
The last five winners were aged between seven and nine
All carried 11-05 or less
Novice chaser Grumeti (two wins from four chase starts) found Grade 1 company too hot at Sandown last time and could be the answer to this ultra-tricky finale. He hasn’t yet encountered a big field/strong pace scenario over fences but those were his preferred conditions over timber, his hurdles record in fields of 10+ runners being: 131 (2-3), with the third coming in the Triumph Hurdle.
Selection: Grumeti