More than almost any other race, punters look in-depth into factors which may benefit their selection in the Epsom Derby. One of the most talked about this year is the draw, so Joe Napier has looked into the stats to see which horses, including City Of Troy, may be affected.
The main reason stall 1 is so feted when it comes to its success, or lack thereof, in producing the winner, is that it will always be used in the race. Where those of 10 and upwards may occasionally forgo a year due to small fields, there will always be a horse in stall 1. The horse this year also happens to be the most talked about of the season in City Of Troy.
The bare numbers show that since Oath 25 years ago in 1999, only one more horse, Adayar in a relatively small field in 2021, has come through to win from that berth at the beginning. One in 24 is not a good strike rate, but even by the law of averages, if we assume a rough mean of 12-13 runners, you would only expect one more winner to have emerged from stall 1 in that time.
Equally, within those Derbies since 2000, stalls 1-9 have been used in every single running. No single-figure draw has provided more than two winners in that time, with stall 1 performing just as well as stall 3 and 6, and better than stall 2, which has, remarkably, never produced a winner since starting stalls began their use in the race in the 1960s. Good luck then to Sayedaty Sadaty, the outsider who has history to overcome from stall 2.
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It’s Derby day at Epsom Downs as the three-year-olds bid for Classic glory in the iconic Flat race. Our top tipster tackles the competitive action at Epsom and picks out his best bets for Saturday here… Back his selections with BetMGM’s HUGE new customer offer of £40 in Free Bets when you deposit and bet…
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The reasons for stalls 1-3 in particular struggling could be the initial couple of furlongs. The early chink right ensures runners on the “inside” briefly cover more ground, before the charge is on to the genuine inside rail that the field cover for the majority of the test. This then means any runner from those gates will be stuck within the pack, unless they choose to lead or drop out, leaving them with a test of luck and judgement to find a route through.
If looking at it this way, there is certainly a disadvantage, but mostly borne out by how the race is run, which can still affect all parties. For all the chatter about City Of Troy, the draw is unlikely to be the thing that catches him out.
Conversely then, is there a draw that outperforms its average? In brief there is one outstanding draw: stall 10. Five winners have emerged from a draw which would generally be right of centre or a few off the wing. This gives those in those stalls the best racing angle to attack the start, while also ensuring they are more likely to choose their track position from then on.
God’s Window is the fortunate horse in that position to emulate Auguste Rodin a year ago, while another useful berth, stall 12, is held by Bellum Justum. Three winners since 200 have come from stall 12, including Serpentine (2020) and Desert Crown (2022).
In summary, if you are a believer, then City Of Troy’s draw should not put you off. Should he possess the talent his yard, and many racing fans, hope he does, then Derby glory has been made only the slightest percentage tougher.
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