Cheltenham ante-post tipster Dave Young (A.K.A Cheltmental) is on hand to give us his A-Z of the Novice Chasing division. He discusses some of the key horses who could be set to line up at the Festival, and which races they could/should be aiming for!
Dave has been involved in Antepost betting and the Cheltenham Festival for almost 20 years and he’s managed to make a good few quid from it. With this column, you’ll be able to have a fly on the wall experience as to what he’s looking forward to each week and how he views what’s happened after the events.
Alongside his thoughts on the racing, Dave will be putting up some suggested bets where he see’s appropriate.
GG ANTE-POST BOOK:
For the purposes of this column everything will be put up to a 1pt win stake. I typically do not stake EW for long term Antepost bets as I would prefer to put myself in the position to have multiple horses running for me, where I see fit.
10th January
4th January
Fakir D’Oudairies – Ryanair Chase @ 10/1 – NRNB with William Hill
20th December
Dawn Rising – Albert Bartlett Hurdle @ 25/1
7th December
THE STORYTELLER – Hunters Chase @ 9/1
HARMONYA MAKER – Mares Novices’ Hurdle @ 20/1
22nd November
PROSCHEMA – Stayers Hurdle @ 25/1
16th November
MONMIRAL – Arkle Novices Chase @ 33/1
BLUE LORD – Ryanair Chase @ 33/1
Ante-Post Suggested Bet
I’m advising a Lucky 15 this week, featuring some of my Novice Chasers to follow:
I have no doubt in my mind APPRECIATE IT is an Arkle prospect so that’s where I see him running and I think he’s got the best back form on offer. The Dublin Racing Festival could provide further evidence of this, but I think there’s plenty of talk from the racing socials to suggest he’s not quick enough for the Arkle and that they would expect to see him in The Turners. If you think that, go back and watch how he travelled for the majority of The Champion Hurdle and remember that 10 of his 11 runs under rules have come at 2m, including every single race over obstacles.
Gordon has confirmed connections got some 66/1 about CHEMICAL ENERGY for the National Hunt Chase so you know where he’s headed and you know he’s coming here fresh like he did with Galvin. Probably wants better ground but looks overpriced really as this is a confirmed target and the Brown Advisory is still crying out to be won so he might end up with very few horses in opposition.
I think MIGHTY POTTER will bolt up at The Dublin Racing festival and I think he’ll go off a short priced favourite for this, so while 7/2 ante-post isn’t typically a huge price to shout about, it’s well worth looking at getting him in your book if you haven’t already, especially when you consider he was top price 7/1 pre-season and that was in a market with Sir Gerhard who won’t be over fences this term and armed with the knowledge that he’s already a Grade 1 winning chaser.
The Brown Advisory looks the target for THYME HILL and he’d have to have a proper chance there. I think he does stay well and we know he handles Cheltenham so while I respect he has some patchy form over the last couple of seasons, he won’t go off an 8/1 chance in March and I believe he’s going straight there, so in an open looking market, he jumps out as one you might want to get on side sooner rather than later because I do think he can win in March but I wouldn’t want to be backing him any shorter.
Looking Back
DAWN RISING was in action last week when a never nearer third in the Lawlors of Naas. That was probably the perfect result considering I want him in the Albert Bartlett but we weren’t going to learn a whole lot more about him, unless he went on to win and then that changes the complexion of where he was likely to head in March. I’m happy with the effort, we move on to potentially the 2m 6f Grade 1 novice hurdle at The Dublin Racing Festival and simply an entry in that would get me excited enough to think he does line up in the Albert Bartlett so I’m happy with where we are with him.
Looking Back
Last week I gave you my thoughts on a bunch of Novice Hurdlers – GG Cheltenham Ante-Post Book – 4th January – GG.co.uk and this week it’s the turn of the Novice Chasers where I go through 20 horses and where I see them heading this spring.
Novice Chasers A-Z
APPRECIATE IT
9YO now and I think that’s detracting from what he’s done in his two chase starts this season and his potential festival target. It’s also important to remember, regardless of the field, he is a Supreme winner and he won by a country mile. That victory was so impressive that it afforded him to be sent off 100/30 second favourite for a Champion Hurdle, which was his first and only ever run in open company. Furthermore; Willie Mullins & Faugheen showed what can be achieved for an older novice chaser with his narrow defeat in the Turners.
That supreme winning season his RPR increased from 140 on debut to 163 at Cheltenham and he was beaten in his bumper on rules debut before progressing to finish second in the Champion Bumper when sent off favourite. All that is said because this horse clearly improves with his racing, all of which bar one run has come over 2 miles. He’s a much more conventional Festival horse in that he has the bumper form, the supreme winning form and he’s been winning at a half speed in his two chase starts, both of which have come at 2 miles. I have no doubt in my mind this horse is an Arkle prospect so that’s where I see him running and I think he’s got the best back form on offer. The Dublin Racing Festival could provide further evidence of this, but I think there’s plenty of talk from the racing socials to suggest he’s not quick enough for the Arkle and that they would expect to see him in The Turners. If you think that, go back and watch how he travelled for the majority of The Champion Hurdle and remember that 10 of his 11 runs under rules have come at 2m, including every single race over obstacles.
BALLYGRIFFINCOTTAGE
8yo chaser who has only had the 4 runs under rules. Really wants soft ground and a test so weather watch would be on connections mind if they were to run him at Cheltenham. Nice win at Haydock on chasing debut and in fairness he ran well in The Albert Bartlett. Hard to make a winning case for, but clearly a very talented horse.
BANBRIDGE
Martin Pipe winner last season off 137 and had won his first two chase starts (including at Cheltenham) before seemingly outclassed in The Drinmore. Not convinced this horse is a Grade 1 animal but the ground wouldn’t have been ideal the last day so a quicker ground festival and all of a sudden his early season form starts to look more inviting.
CHEMICAL ENERGY
Gordon has confirmed connections got some 66/1 about this horse for the National Hunt Chase so you know where he’s headed and you know he’s coming here fresh like he did with Galvin. Probably wants better ground but looks overpriced really as this is a confirmed target and the Brown Advisory is still crying out to be won so he might end up with very few horses in opposition.
CLASSIC GETAWAY
Bled in the Albert Bartlett last season and narrowly denied at Punchestown in an ordinary hurdle although was deemed to have caused interference. Won well enough on chasing debut while still looking like he would improve and you’d think he’s a staying chaser so the Brown Advisory would look the likely option although you wouldn’t rule out the National Hunt Chase. Not seen since November, so he’s one who would be interesting if he were to run in the Ten Up Novices Chase as that has been a pointer to the not-quite 4 miler for this yard.
DYSART DYNAMO
Serious hurdler although twice well beaten in Grade 1’s in the spring and he is a keen type. Took well to fences and jumping didn’t seem to be an issue where he had gone a little right over hurdles. A runner last season who was touted for both Supreme and The Ballymore so again the Arkle and The Turners will be spouted as options, but I’m not sure he really does want further than 2 miles and to me he might just not be a top-notcher like some expected, including me while he was hurdling.
EL FABIOLO
One of two exciting Novice Chasers for Munir & Souede who only narrowly was denied by Jonbon over hurdles at Aintree last spring. I think that line of form is being used by many to suggest that the former is too short, or even this lad is too big a price but I’d say it’s somewhere in between. He did wear a hood for the first and only time at Aintree, and I wasn’t 100% convinced of his attitude in the finish but that was removed for Punchestown where he won well in beating Ha D’or. Might be the type to get further in time but I see no rush to move him up in trip just yet, although he’s another we’ll learn a lot about at The Dublin Racing Festival I hope, because the yard have plenty of options and will likely split them up. I’d say he’s second in line to Appreciate It as an Arkle hope right now for Closutton.
FIL D’OR
5yo now who was a beaten odds-on favourite at Christmas but I do think he was the wrong price then, albeit I thought another horse would beat him in Hollow Games. Loses his age allowances now so wouldn’t be on my radar as a Cheltenham winner in waiting but Aintree or Fairyhouse could be an option.
GAILLARD DU MESNIL
Second season novice who won as he liked in the Neville Hotels Novices chase but that race was marred with the loss of Three Stripe Life. Still he did what he could to win and has shown that he has plenty of stamina already when third in The Irish Grand National last season off 154. Worthy favourite at this stage for the National Hunt Chase as should he line up he’ll take the world of beating and while the Brown Advisory is cutting up now, I’m not sure they’d change his target, just because of others.
GELINO BELLO
I didn’t think this horse would have been suited to Kempton so despite his mistakes and fall, I’m happy to ignore that altogether but he has jumped right on his two chases prior. He has good Cheltenham form as a novice hurdler and is 2 from 2 at Aintree, but I think they’d be missing a trick to not run him at The Festival and the turnaround isn’t as quick as usual this year. Plus while hurdling he ran October, November, December and January, before taking Feb off (probably Flu Jab) then running in March and April so I don’t think he needs time between his races. He looks grossly overpriced if he were to line up in the Brown Advisory and ranges from around 25/1 to 50/1 at the time of writing but I suspect he’ll race once more over the bigger obstacles before they plan the Spring, because he was given a Stayers hurdle entry so that could be an option should he falter again. The hurdle entry does show intent to race at Cheltenham though.
GENTLEMANSGAME
Low 140’s hurdler but was touted to make into a much better chaser and he won at Christmas over 2m 5f in good style, especially for a horse who would want every yard at 3 miles to show his best. Won on good ground over the smaller obstacles and won on rules debut on soft/heavy ground so he’s versatile. Holds an entry this Sunday over 2m 3 1/2f which looks short enough a trip but gains him more experience and I’d expect him to be a Brown Advisory type or even a National Hunt Chase type. Connections have Gerri Colombe too so you’d imagine they’d split that pair.
GERRI COLOMBE
Briefly mentioned just now, Gerri Colombe runs for Robcour and looks a serious chasing prospect. He wouldn’t scream out to me that he wants any further than 3 miles although I think that probably is his trip and while there’s lot of talk about him needing ease in the ground I’m not convinced he does. Still that may play a part in deciding what they do with him in the Spring so he’s a little risky when you think of him as an Ante Post interest. Personally I’d say there’s more chance he goes Turners than the National Hunt Chase, so I’d pin my colours to the mast and say if he runs at Cheltenham it’ll be the Brown Advisory.
HA D’OR
Highly tried and well thought of as a Juvenile and spent last season as a second season Novice hurdler where he achieved an official rating of 139. Might be a bit better than that and certainly looked an improved horse when taking his Novice Chase debut in his stride wining very comfortably over 2m 5f at Fairyhouse. He’s a top price of 20/1 for The Turners and the same for The Brown Advisory which shows he’s not going completely under the radar and a decent or winning effort next time out in a better class race could see him very prominent in either market. Hard to get a handle from breeding where his optimum trip would be but I think he could be a 3 miler, so hopefully we’ll find out more next time out, but he’s definitely one to keep an eye on for sure.
JAMES DU BERLAIS
Daryl Jacob has recently commented that his most likely target would be The Turners which ties in more with what his owners typically do with a Novice Chaser despite the fact he looks like he’s a staying chaser to me. Another Irish Novice chaser though who had very little to beat on debut so entries before March and how he performs would be well worth knowing before considering him as a potential bet for any race in March, but he has the scope to be a very good chaser, of that I’m sure, and if asked now to pick a target I’d agree with Daryl, less so because I think it’s the right race (I’m not sure what is yet) but more so because of connections previous history (Terrefort springs to mind).
JONBON
Arkle favourite since last spring and it seems a long time ago since Paddy Power paid out on him to win the race already, earlier this season. Looks a better chaser than he was a hurdler and he was a good hurdler, but I still wonder if he has that top grade quickening speed because I feel like he can take a few extra strides to hit top gear. That’s the way he’s beaten at Cheltenham so you reliant on something being able to go with him and then turn the screw before he does so he’s a worthy favourite – I just don’t think he’s unbeatable.
MIGHTY POTTER
Winner of the Drinmore on his second start over fences and looked to have even more to come with a few sloppy jumps. A very good hurdler who was touted to want a bit further than the 2m he was campaigned at and was always going to improve for a fence. Looks tailor-made for The Turners and can go one better than Dynaste did in this race back in 2013 who shares the same sire.
I think he’ll bolt up at The Dublin Racing festival and I think he’ll go off a short priced favourite for this, so while 7/2 ante-post isn’t typically a huge price to shout about, it’s well worth looking at getting him in your book if you haven’t already, especially when you consider he was top price 7/1 pre-season and that was in a market with Sir Gerhard who won’t be over fences this term and armed with the knowledge that he’s already a Grade 1 winning chaser.
MINELLA CROONER
I’ve talked about this horse on numerous occasions and he holds a couple of entries this weekend, once over 2m 3 1/2f and also one over 3 miles at Warwick. I’d prefer the latter option because I think it’s about his level and he could be a bet in there, but regardless I think this horse has loads more than he’s shown because I do think he’s a bit of a rascal and we’re not seeing 100% of what he can do just yet. Needs to show more to be a Grade 1 animal but there’s time on his side before the Spring and he’s a horse I’m very interested in going forward.
RAMILLIES
A horse who has always seems liked he would be a dour stayer and while he didn’t scale any great heights over hurdles there’s just something about him that draws peoples attention. I don’t think his chasing debut was a performance that would win a Brown Advisory and connections have Gaillard Du Mesnil for the National Hunt Chase, but I do think that would be this lads preferred target so I’m keen to see him out again. He was keen on Chasing debut but that might have been freshness, but he’s one I’d pitch as similar to a Black Hercules in the fact you’d could run him at 2 and a half or 4 miles and he’ll put in the same level of effort and performance. One to keep on the radar, but no idea really where he could win at The Festival just based on the one chase effort.
SAINT ROI
County Hurdle winner in 2020 when he was a potential Supreme contender before being beaten on debut for the yard. Spent another season over hurdles but was thought of as an Arkle type by plenty for last season where again he stayed over hurdles. I’d suspect he’s had plenty of schooling, and he won well enough at Christmas, he just doesn’t strike me as a natural nor a Grade 1 horse so I’m luke-warm on him at the moment. JP would likely run him in the Turners, so I don’t think he’s up to that, but you’d expect him to run well there all the same, and it’s a race which could cut up so he probably won’t be 16/1 on the day.
THYME HILL
Winner of The Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (The Feltham) at Christmas and showed that he does have a top level engine once again, just like when narrowly denied in the Albert Bartlett and when second in The Stayers Hurdle last year. Brown Advisory looks the target and he’d have to have a proper chance there. I think he does stay well and we know he handles Cheltenham so while I respect he has some patchy form over the last couple of seasons, he won’t go off an 8/1 chance in March and I believe he’s going straight there, so in an open looking market, he jumps out as one you might want to get on side sooner rather than later because I do think he can win in March but I wouldn’t want to be backing him any shorter.