Cheltenham ante-post tipster Dave Young (A.K.A Cheltmental) guides us through his thoughts on the previous weeks racing, along with looking ahead to the upcoming races that could feature some winners at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival.
Dave has been involved in Antepost betting and the Cheltenham Festival for almost 20 years and he’s managed to make a good few quid from it. With this column, you’ll be able to have a fly on the wall experience as to what he’s looking forward to each week and how he views what’s happened after the events.
Alongside his thoughts on the racing, Dave will be putting up some suggested bets where he see’s appropriate.
GG ANTE-POST BOOK:
For the purposes of this column everything will be put up to a 1pt win stake. I typically do not stake EW for long term Antepost bets as I would prefer to put myself in the position to have multiple horses running for me, where I see fit.
7th December
THE STORYTELLER – Hunters Chase @ 9/1
HARMONYA MAKER – Mares Novices’ Hurdle @ 20/1
22nd November
PROSCHEMA – Stayers Hurdle @ 25/1
16th November
MONMIRAL – Arkle Novices Chase @ 33/1
BLUE LORD – Ryanair Chase @ 33/1
The Week Ahead
Saturday
Temperatures looks set to rise but not until the very back end of the weekend and by then I fear we’re going to be missing out on plenty of British racing. Most notably the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot where the likes of CHAMP, PAISLEY PARK & GOSHEN were among the 7 confirmations. Ireland could survive though and hopefully they do because the opener at Fairyhouse on Saturday is a Beginners Chase with APPRECIATE IT, EL FABIOLO, DYSART DYNAMO & FLAME BEARER all entered and it’s a sign that the Closutton big guns are raring to go. Back in Britain Haydock on Saturday look to inspect on Thursday at 8am as the track is currently frozen and with low temperatures forecast it looks unlikely to be on, but I wanted to give a mention to HARMONYA MAKER who was put up last week because she holds an entry in the Listed Mares Hurdle.
Sunday
Sunday in Thurles JOURNEY WITH ME will look to try again over fences in a 3m Beginners Chase. He fell on chase debut, and he did so over hurdles in the Ballymore last year so while he has bundles of ability, he really looks in need of more experience.
There’s another Listed Mares hurdle with HARMONYA MAKER entered again so I’m hopeful we’ll see her come out and show what she can do but overall, it’s a quiet enough weekend of racing even if everything went ahead, which sadly isn’t going to happen.
888Sport Do Not Currently Have A Sign Up Offer Available
See reviews Join today18+ only. New customers only. T&Cs Apply. gambleaware.org
Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets
See reviews Join today18+ only. New customers only. T&Cs Apply. gambleaware.org
Bet £10 and Get £30 in Free Bets
See reviews Join today18+ only. New customers only. T&Cs Apply. gambleaware.org
The Week In Review
Not a whole lot to talk about from last with weather causing issues daily as expected but there were a handful of efforts at Cork on Sunday which are worth touching on
BLOOD DESTINY picked up the 3yo Maiden Hurdle and in pretty good style too. Willie Mullins received the horse under strong recommendation from relatively young French Trainer Gabriel Leenders but did comment that his homework hadn’t been up to much and that he wondered if they’d been sent the right horse. Some horses just don’t show up until the racecourse but there was further comment from Willie that this horse had pleased Paul Townend in his last piece of work. I’d need to see him out again to get a handle on where his ceiling as a Juvenile might be, but it does mean that BO ZENITH (now with Gary Moore) who beat this lad in France is of more interest on his debut too.
ARCTIC BRESIL won the 2m1f Maiden Hurdle in nice fashion, but the race was quite shallow. He is worth treating in isolation though as he was very keen throughout so to finish the way he did was eye-catching to say the least. He’s a full brother to Klitschko trained by Alan King and only a year splits to two (Artic Bresil a 5yo, Klitschko a 4yo) and they could be quite similar types. Klitschko on debut was very keen when landing his bumper last May but this season on his hurdling bow, he was a well beaten 4/11 favourite and was far to free in the race. The point form from Arctic Bresil is ok but I’m not sure he’s a Grade 1 winner in waiting and now’s probably a good time to reiterate that I’d take last week’s performances with a pinch of salt given the weather surrounding them.
HIDDENVALLY LAKE picked up the Grade 3 Novice Stayers’ Hurdle to notch up a quick fire double for Rachel Blackmore & Henry De Bromhead in beating Cool Survivor and Monbed Park. He looked like a dour stayer, but I’d argue the third (who was sent off favourite) was a non-stayer & the runner up isn’t much more than a mid 130’s prospect. Still, it was an effort that should see him taking on better horses next time out – the horse he beat on debut did win last Thursday and he should make into an even better chaser, so there’s plenty to be excited about although again, I’m not getting carried away.
We also saw ENERGUMENE back in action in the Hilly Way Chase where he was 19lbs clear of his nearest rival on Official ratings who was reported to have bled from both nostrils leaving the winner 29lbs clear of the eventual runner up. The main thing to take from the race would be that in reality there’s not much competition for him at the trip and he really is a proper horse. Strangely I always had him down as a future stayer though and of course he won on an officially soft ground Festival but arguably the conditions were worse. Still, he’s shortened up at the head of the Champion Chase market and rightly so.
The 12 Grade 1’s of Christmas
This gives us an ideal opportunity to focus a little more on the upcoming Christmas Festivals where we have no less than 12 Grade 1’s due to be run and I’m going to take a closer look at what these races have taught us about potential Festival winners the same season over the last decade or so. I’ve also included video clips of the final stages of each race from last year too as a reminder.
BRITAIN
KAUTO STAR NOVICES’ CHASE
Flagship Grade 1 for British staying chasers in my opinion because it’s not often we have any Irish competition and it’s attracted plenty of future stars over the years. The last winner of this race though to go onto Festival success was back in 2014 when Coneygree won the Gold Cup as a Novice. A couple of years prior we saw Dynaste a beaten favourite at Cheltenham, but he did win at Aintree, the year before that Grands Crus suffered the same fate and last year Bravemansgame was favourite for the Brown Advisory before being withdrawn on the day. It’s also rans who have tasted more success in the spring with the likes of Bobs Worth (2011), Might Bite (2016) & Topofthegame (2018) all going on to win The Brown Advisory in March.
CHRISTMAS HURDLE
This is a race I have enjoyed over the years with the likes of Harchibald, Binocular, My Tent Or Yours, Faugheen, Buveur D’Air & Epatante have all landed in the past. Not all of those went on to win a Champion Hurdle but we’re likely to see CONSTITUTION HILL line up so regardless of the fact this has produced 3 same season Champion Hurdle winners in the last 8 years, which on its own is a massive plus, we’re looking at seeing the current 1/3 favourite for the big one in March lining up and I don’t think he’ll have much to beat either.
KING GEORGE VI CHASE
This is still an attractive Grade 1 every single year even though it’s not quite the same as when we saw the likes of Desert Orchid & Kauto Star notching up multiple victories and tasting Festival success too. In fact, the last Gold Cup winner to win this race was Kauto Star back in the 08/09 season. Since then, we’ve typically seen winners of the race who come up short in the Blue Riband event in March whether that’s due to preference away from Cheltenham, they lack that extra bit of stamina or even they lack a bit of class. This doesn’t mean there isn’t a runner in here who can’t buck that trend, but it does look unlikely.
CHALLOW NOVICES’ HURDLE
Witchita Lineman is the last same season festival winner to have won this race and he landed the Albert Bartlett as opposed to the Ballymore. Thyme Hill was close in March in the same race after landing this and we’ve seen Denman (his renewal run at Cheltenham), Parlour Games & Champ runners up in The Ballymore. There’s no doubt we typically see a classy horse in here, but the race has lacked depth so we might see the winner com up short yet again.
IRELAND
RACING POST NOVICES’ CHASE
Willie Mullins has won 7 of the last 11 running’s of this and both Douvan & Footpad went on to win the same season’s Arkle. Le Richebourg in 18/19 was favourite for March but suffered a set back and the same was true for last year’s winner Ferny Hollow. Notebook has Cheltenham issues as a Novice Hurdler but was still sent off favourite for the Arkle the same season so although we may not see the winner in March, we’re going to see something prominent in the market at least.
FAUGHEEN NOVICES’ CHASE
This was a Grade 2 up until 2017 and since then has produced a same season festival winner in Mares Chase heroin Colreevy. Prior to this Sir Des Champs back in 11/12 took this before landing the now Marsh Chase. Can lend itself to horses who might just be in between trips at 2m4f and 3m.
PADDY’S REWARD CLUB CHASE
Some big names have won this recently including Envoi Allen, Chacun Pour Soi, A Plus Tard, Simply Ned & Douvan but you’d have to go back to Moscow Flyer in the 02/03 season if you want the same season Champion Chaser. Douvan was a 2/9 poke when fracturing his hip in the Queen Mum and Chacun Pour Soi was also a beaten odds-on favourite in the 20/21 season. Curiously, the previous seasons Champion Chaser landed this in 2011 and 2012 which is what ENERGUMENE could possibly be in line to do, although it’s not out of the question that’ll the lightly raced 8yo will wait until the Dublin Racing Festival before he’s seen again.
FUTURE CHAMPIONS NOVICE HURDLE
5 of the last 7 running’s have gone to Willie Mullins with Gordon Elliott landing the other two and it produced The Supreme winner Appreciate It in the 20/21 season. There have been some great names to win this in the past such as future Gold Cup winner Sizing John and Champion Hurdle winners Jezki, Hurricane Fly & Istabraq but it is just Appreciate It and Istabraq (The now Ballymore) who tasted same season Festival success and those two are split by 24 years.
CHRISTMAS HURDLE
3m Hurdle event which saw Flooring Porter do the double in 2020/2021 but he is the only horse to have won both this and the Stayers’ Hurdle in March. Apple’s Jade won this race three times but her only Festival win (The Mares) came the season prior.
SAVILLS CHASE
Synchronised back in 11/12 was the last horse to win this and land The Gold Cup in March and before that it was 03/04 for Best Mate when he landed his 3rd Gold Cup in a row. Of course, the big one in March is a very hard race to win but the same can be said for this as A Plus Tard showed last season when going to by a short head to Galvin before gaining his revenge at Cheltenham and in doing so taking The Gold Cup. Minella Indo fell in this race the season prior and went on to win in March also so it’s another of the ‘also rans’ that provide just as much of a clue.
MATHESON HURDLE
Also known as the December Festival Hurdle has been won by Sharjah for the last 4 years. He’s fallen short in the Champion Hurdle, but Hurricane Fly did the double in the 2012/2013 season just like he did in 2010/2011. In recent years we’ve seen Honeysuckle land back-to-back Champion Hurdles, however she’s simply not taken this race in as part of her programme so it’s not to say that this couldn’t be a useful trial, it’s just typically a runner from Closutton who lands this with Willie Mullins responsible for 9 of the last 12 winners.
NEVILLE HOTELS NOVICE CHASE
The 2020/21 season seems to have appeared an awful lot in these paragraphs and again it produced same season winner Monkfish who took the Brown Advisory following his success in here. Delta Work went close in 18/19 and Don Poli did the double back in 14/15 but we’ve also seen Back In Focus land this and the NH Chase as well as Shattered Love who won this and the now Turners in the same season.
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.