Cheltenham ante-post tipster Dave Young (A.K.A Cheltmental) is on hand to talk us through his thoughts following the weekends superb action at the Dublin Racing Festival. He discusses some of the key horses who could be set to line up at the Festival, and which races they could/should be aiming for!
Dave has been involved in Antepost betting and the Cheltenham Festival for almost 20 years and he’s managed to make a good few quid from it. With this column, you’ll be able to have a fly on the wall experience as to what he’s looking forward to each week and how he views what’s happened after the events.
Alongside his thoughts on the racing, Dave will be putting up some suggested bets where he see’s appropriate.
The Final Countdown
Just 4 weeks from today will see Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival underway and this milestone is an ideal opportunity to reflect.
Strategically things are different now as we’re a little clearer on targets, we’ve got almost all the form in the book, the weather forecast becomes more useful and the last of the entries are unveiled over the next few weeks.
The most anticipated of these come next week where we have The Handicap entries released which is an ideal opportunity to try and give yourself an idea of the marks you’d like to or expect to see from an Irish fancies. The weights are released the following Tuesday afternoon so you’ll be able to reflect on who may have gotten in lightly or who has been harshly treated in your opinion. This is always worth the effort and gives some experience in trying to put a rating figure to form because after all, this is a game of opinions so you really need to have your own too
I’ll be looking into some Stats and Trends for each race of The Festival alongside this weekly column, where I’ll give you my shortlist for those who tick the right boxes which can help in reading the market movers so to kick start that I’ve listed some numbers which could be useful pre Cheltenham
Future Cheltenham Winners who raced inside 28 days of The Festival
Last 10 Years quick stats
There have been 46 winners in the last 10 years who raced inside 28 days of The Festival which equates to 17% (15/70 Tuesday, 7/70 Wednesday, 14/67 Thursday, 10/62 Friday)
27 of those landed Handicaps which equates to 30% (8/20 Tuesday, 2/20 Wednesday, 12/30 Thursday, 5/20 Friday)
Last 5 years quick stats
There have been 22 winners in the last 5 years who raced inside 28 days of The Festival which equates to 16% (5/35 Tuesday, 5/35 Wednesday, 6/35 Thursday, 6/32 Friday)
11 of those landed Handicaps which equates to 24% ( 3/10 Tuesday, 1/10 Wednesday, 5/15 Thursday, 2/10 Friday)
Race by Race – Last 10 & last 5
TUESDAY
• SUPREME – 2/10 – 0/5
• ARKLE – 1/10 – 1/5 (DUC DES GENIEVRES won a Beginners Chase)
• ULTIMA – 4/10 – 2/5
• CHAMPION HURDLE – 1/10 – 0/5 (ANNIE POWER won a Mares races prior)
• MARES HURDLE – 2/10 – 1/5
• BOODLES – 4/10 – 1/5
• NH CHASE – 1/10 – 0/5 (MINELLA ROCCO in Reynoldstown – race run this Saturday)
WEDNESDAY
• BALLYMORE – 0/10 – 0/5
• BROWN ADVISORY – 2/10 – 1/5
• CORAL CUP – 2/10 – 1/5 (Both Boyne Hurdle which isn’t inside 28 days this year)
• CHAMPION CHASE – 0/10 – 0/5
• CROSS COUNTRY – 2/10 – 2/5 (Both Boyne Hurdle which isn’t inside 28 days this year)
• GRAND ANNUAL – 0/10 – 0/5
• BUMPER – 1/10 – 1/5 (FERNY HOLLOW at Fairyhouse. Potentially CHAPEAU DE SOLIEL runs)
THURSDAY
• TURNERS – 0/10 – 0/5
• PERTEMPS – 5/10 – 2/5
• RYANAIR – 1/10 – 0/5 (CUE CARD Ascot Chase 13, RIVERSIDE THEATRE did double in 2012)
• STAYERS HURDLE – 0/10 – 0/5 (Last 10 were 46 days plus)
• PLATE – 1/10 – 0/5 (ROAD TO RESPECT ran Ten Up which isn’t inside 28 days this year)
• MARES’ NOVICE HURDLE – 1/7 – 1/5 (LOVE ENVOI at Sandown – race run this Thursday)
• KIM MUIR – 6/10 – 3/5 (ANY SECOND NOW ran Ten Up which isn’t inside 28 days this year)
FRIDAY
• TRIUMPH – 2/10 – 2/5 (PENTLAND & BURNING VICTORY, arguably fortunate winners)
• COUNTY HURDLE – 2/10 – 1/5 (Both Irish, both Graded Races)
• ALBERT BARTLETT – 1/10 – 1/5 (MINELLA INDO at Clonmel – race run this Thursday)
• GOLD CUP – 0/10 – 0/5
• FOXHUNTERS – 2/10 – 1/5 (None of the last 4)
• MARES CHASE – 0/2
• MARTIN PIPE – 3/10 – 1/5 (None of last 4, all 3 Irish, 2 from Michael Purcell run on 23rd Feb)
ANTE-POST OUTLOOK
It’s a good time to run through the recommendations I’ve provided through this column as some are OK, some are Good and some are already gone but that’s the nature of the beast. I wanted to explain where my thoughts are compared to where they were so there’s nothing that I’m thinking that you don’t know.
The bottom line with Ante-Post punting is that we’re trying to find some value. That doesn’t have to be true in every single selection (although that’s still the aim), you just want to have X amount of potential returns at a cost that is cheaper to buy in advance than it would be if you waited. So at this point in time I’m going to show you the cost difference in my suggestions which I believe is an important way to look at things before any of the races have actually run. Yes we want winners in the end, but the first step is trying to put ourselves in a better position for race week than we might have been had we waited
MONMIRAL – ARKLE 33/1
Reported by Paul Nicholls that they will look to 3 miles with him next season and are likely to revert back to hurdling for the remainder of this season to protect his Novice Chase Status. Clearly didn’t amount to what I was hoping and we were never in a position to just have him land a moderate Novice Chase which would have seen his price contract however that would have been irrelevant as he’s no Arkle horse
No Arkle Entry -1 point
BLUE LORD – RYANAIR 33/1
Not an absolute certainty to come to this race as I understand connections were leaning towards a tilt at The Champion Chase but with ALLAHO now out for the season his price has severely contracted with both bookmakers and the exchange. Still has to prove his stamina but I’m glad he’s on the team sheet and he’s holding the ‘value’ up to strength
Points now for same return at top price 7/2 = 7.56 (+6.56 points)
PROSCHEMA – STAYERS HURDLE 25/1
No stayers hurdle entry and he was put up at a time where he was just 5/2 for the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury behind PAISLEY and CHAMP. He’s running in the Rendlesham this Saturday at Haydock for which I’d be keen however he holds no Stayers Hurdle entry so the bet was no good
No Stayers Entry -1 point
HARMONYA MAKER – MARES NOVICE HURDLE – 20/1
I still think she’s one of the best Mares Gordon Elliott has and her win on New Years day was much more like it when slamming PINK IN THE PARK by 20 lengths giving her 6 pounds. Not quite literal but PINK IN THE PARK was then beaten the same distance behind PRINCESS ZOE however she was eased and stopped quickly that day whereas she was ridden to the finish behind HARMONYA who wasn’t overly exerted herself. Entries for the Mares Novice will be out around the time of this column being published but I expect her to be in and she’s no penalty to carry so I’m a little surprised that you can still get 16/1 about her as I’m still keen on her chance
Points now for same return at top price 16/1 = 1.24 (+0.24points)
THE STORYTELLER – FOXHUNTERS – 9/1
28th February we get the Foxhunters entries and I’m not absolutely certain he’s going to line up in March given the information I relayed a few weeks back in the new year about his arthritic issue but we know he goes well here but the top price 25/1 about him still doesn’t look overly luring so if you’re not already on I’d advise you wait until the day for a token gesture if you’re that way inclined but he’d be hard to fancy off the back of the now known issue
Points now for same return at top price 25/1 = 0.38 (-0.62points)
DAWN RISING – ALBERT BARTLETT – 25/1
I still quite like this horse for the Albert Bartlett however he’s out to 100 on the Exchange and has been matched for small amounts there so you’d think someone is happy that he’s not going here. Could end up a Martin Pipe type horse given he’s rated 137 in Ireland and the ceiling for that race is 145. Joseph used the Michael Purcell novice hurdle for FRONT VIEW a few years back who was another JP owned runner so and entry there could be a clue but I’m beginning to feel like this ticket could be a losing one. So while I’m not giving up complete hope, if you have the option to cash out I would advise you to do so
Points now for same return at top price 25/1 = 1 (no difference but NRNB concession better now)
FAKIR D’OUDAIRES – RYANAIR (NRNB) 10/1
At a time when William Hill went NRNB this particular market took a lot of stick online as they priced to 200%. The glaring omission from peoples calculations was the fact that it’s not betting to a loss as most of the market were never going to run so I had it closer to 130% being generous however the angle with this bet was more than FAKIR wouldn’t run if ALLAHO did, but should ALLAHO miss Cheltenham which he now is, FAKIR would be favourite for the race and he is. Not seen enough this season to make me think he’s as good as last term and I think the Ascot Chase on Saturday could see him beaten despite being a short priced favourite. They may also consider going to Cheltenham fresh with the recent news so I’m happy we got the bet in at the time we did, but this was much more about a value opportunity than me saying the horse is a certainty to win the race
Points now for same return at top price 3/1 = 2.75 (+1.75points)
THYME HILL, APPRECIATE IT, MIGHY POTTER, CHEMICAL ENERGY – LUCKY 15
Put up after writing about the Novice Chasers earlier this year and for the purpose of this like all bets I’ll calculate to a 1 point stake which would total 15 points for the bet type. Now there is the concession of double odds for one winner which changes things but let’s not worry about that for now and I’ll treat everything as I have done the other recommendations
THYME HILL is still on track so he’s OK, APPRECIATE IT is more likely Turners bound so that’s cost us a little while MIGHTY POTTER has shortened plenty for the same race and I’m still super keen on him and CHEMICAL ENERGY is on offer at the same price as before. I’ve calculated the stake now assuming that APPRECIATE IT doesn’t run in the race I suggested therefore 7 of the 15 lines are down
Point difference at current top odds and APPRECIATE IT as lost -2.76 points
PAISLEY PARK – STAYERS HURDLE – 8/1
A general 8/1 poke before his run in The Cleeve Hurdle which saw his price pushed out to 20/1 and it’s worth just mentioning if you backed him with Bet365 at the time you’ll get Best Odds Guaranteed but I appreciate no bookmaker was specified so I’ll keep this as is. I do think he’s still got an outside chance but obviously I’d much rather be on at the bigger price so this wasn’t ideal, especially as I mentioned that there was only so much shorter his price could go so in hindsight I should have held back a week because I’d still want him in the book
Points now for same return at top price 20/1 = 0.43 (-0.57 points)
ECHOES IN RAIN – 10/1
She’s shortened a point into 9/1 top price. BRANDY LOVE 💕 being sold to The Donnelly’s seems to suggest she’ll make Cheltenham and now HONEYSUCKLE is steering this way too it’s shaping up to be an absolute belter of a race. All those things considered ECHOES IN RAIN is probably about the right price but I’m still keen on her so I’m happy where we are
Points now for same return at top price 9/1 = 1.10 (+0.10points)
MINELLA CROONER – NH CHASE (NRNB) – 20/1
I’ve commented on this horses attitude before and I do think he’s a bit of a character so to see him surge at the finish in his last race was not really a surprise. I understand that he may lack a little in class over fences but he’s still a proper 140’s horse and I don’t think he’s been showing us his all so I don’t think he has as much to find as the market does so the 20/1 about him still now (advised as NRNB so using top NRNB price) is still really good. Plenty of people mention him for a Kim Muir but he’s 145 rated in Ireland and the race has a ceiling of 145 so I don’t think he’s going to get him and the qualification for the NH Chase the last day suggests to me that’s where he ends up
No price change +/-0
FUN FUN FUN – CHAMPION BUMPER (NRNB) – 6/1
I appreciate I mentioned Patrick riding her in the column last week but he rightly said he probably wouldn’t make the weight. It was more said to refer to her price for The Champion Bumper than what is likely to happen as who he rides has a big influence on the market. The fact he can’t make the weight isn’t telling us that he doesn’t rate this runner higher than the current favourite and I’d be more than happy with Jody Townend riding so I’m still keen on her chance should she line up. The last caveat of ‘should she line up’ is the reason I’ve gone for the NRNB concession
No price change +/-0
Overall advised stake at 1pt per bet = 26 points
Required stake at 1pt per bet now = 28.7 points
Until next week
The last line on this summary is that yes there are losers in here which might make you feel like you could have been better to wait and not have the non-runners. However when you look at the bigger picture and see that the total cost now compared the total cost then is more expensive (it’s cost us 10% less then compared to now), hopefully that provides some comfort that Ante-post punting is not dead yet.
I’d always strive to do better on the measurables, I hope there’s been some extra value found from the column itself from an insight perspective. I appreciate your support and I cannot begin to express how excited I am for the comings weeks