In a brand new segment, we welcome expert Cheltenham ante-post tipster Dave Young (A.K.A Cheltmental) to guide us through his thoughts on the previous weeks racing, along with looking ahead to the upcoming races that could feature some winners at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival.
Dave has been involved in Antepost betting and the Cheltenham Festival for almost 20 years and he’s managed to make a good few quid from it. With this column, you’ll be able to have a fly on the wall experience as to what he’s looking forward to each week and how he views what’s happened after the events.
Alongside his thoughts on the racing, Dave will be putting up some suggested bets where he see’s appropriate. To kick things off, he gives two selections worth considering backing at big odds in the Arkle and Ryanair Chase.
SUGGESTED BETS:
For the purposes of this column everything will be put up to a 1pt win stake. I typically do not stake EW for long term Antepost bets as I would prefer to put myself in the position to have multiple horses running for me, where I see fit.
MONMIRAL – Arkle Novices Chase @ 33/1
BLUE LORD – Ryanair Chase @ 33/1
The Week Ahead – Midweek
Wednesday
We’re spoilt with a Novices’ Chase which could be the start of a season long ding-dong between JONBON & MONMIRAL. I’m a huge fan of the latter now going chasing and given the confidence from the yard in terms of the winners they’re firing in, I cannot wait to see this race.
I’d imagine both have the Henry VIII Novices chase on the agenda as their next runs which comes at the Tingle Creek meeting at Sandown. It could come too quick for one or the other, especially if this is a hard race, which brings the Grade 2 Novices Chase into contention at the Kempton Christmas Festival but for now, let’s enjoy round 1 of this clash.
I do think MONMIRAL is a proper horse, I think he’ll make into a top Grade chaser so that’s why I’m of the belief that 33/1 for this seasons Arkle is far too big. I was expecting his and the Arkle favourites first clash to come after they’d both made their debuts, but I’m not bothered that it’s happening now. I think MONMIRAL will at least put in a decent performance against JONBON to prove that he’s is overpriced for the main event come March and I genuinely believe he can beat him. So now’s the time to get involved if you haven’t already.
Let’s not let this take away from the fact JONBON looks like he will be even better over fences and he has always looked like a horse possessed and solely with his focus on doing his job.
“I think MONMIRAL will at least put in a decent performance against JONBON to prove that he is overpriced for the main event come March and I genuinely believe he can beat him. “
Thursday
In Clonmel there’s an informative Listed Mares Chase which will see ELIMAY take on SCARLET AND DOVE and provides round 3 after the Cheltenham & Punchestown Festival’s with the score standing all square. There is a few points between the two of them in the Mares Chase betting so should SCARLET AND DOVE come out victorious she’ll inevitably shorten but I expect both to come on from the run.
Another informative race could be the Clonmel Oil where Willie Mullins will run BLUE LORD and TORNADO FLYER. The former was earmarked for the two races run last weekend where Gentleman De Mee and Ferny Hollow were due to run, however with recent revelations suggesting Allaho may not been seen before Cheltenham, it seems telling that he’s opting to step BLUE LORD back up in trip.
The last time he did was over hurdles where he was beaten by Bob Olinger and I think he could end up in a RYANAIR for which he’s top priced 33/1, which if you consider Allaho might not make it, looks a huge price.
TORNADO FLYER will head to the King George but shouldn’t’ be winning at Cheltenham. DARASSO is in here too and on the race terms, he’ll put it up to BLUE LORD to ensure there’s substance to the race so he appeals at the price for an early poke at the Ryanair.
The Week Ahead – Weekend
Saturday
Friday sees the start of a two-day meeting at Ascot and opens the window for some decent novice hurdlers to come out so will be worth keeping an eye on but it’s Saturday where we should see plenty of Cheltenham winners back in action.
A PLUS TARD heads back to Haydock for the Betfair Chase (The Lancashire Chase) which he won with ease last season. He achieved an Official Rating of 180 to make him the highest rated horse in training on either side of the sea. This doesn’t look much harder than last year’s race so anything but a win for him would be disappointing.
CONSTITUTION HILL might have his first run in open company in The Ascot Hurdle and with an Official Rating of 170 it makes him the highest rated Novice since classifications were introduced at the start of this Millennium. There has been some doubt cast by Nicky Henderson at the Newbury Gallops morning, so we’ll have to see how much rain does fall between now and then.
To continue the top tier theme, we could see L’HOMME PRESSE, who was crowned the Top British Novice chaser following his Cheltenham win, in the Chanelle Pharma (1965 Chase) at Ascot which means we’re kicking off the British Jumps season proper with horses from the Top Table out in force.
Over in Ireland Saturday starts the two-day Punchestown meeting where the Grade 2 Craddockstown Novices’ Chase over 2 miles takes centre stage although we’re not seeing the best of the Irish Novice Hurdlers stepping in here so it might just prove wise to remember that this looks very much like a Grade 2 regardless of how impressive the winner might be.
Sunday
Sunday hosts a Grade 1 and a Grade 2 with The Morgiana the star attraction. Willie Mullins looks to continue his stranglehold on the race handling 10 of the last 11 winners and has 6 of the 8 entries at this stage. It’s had some very smart horses taking the crown in recent years but you do have to head back to Hurricane Fly’s first win (2012) in this race where he managed to win both this and The Champion Hurdle in the same season.
The Grade 2 Florida Pearl Novices’ Chase over 2 miles and 6 furlongs has been a steppingstone to the NH Chase and Back In Focus did the double back in the 2012/13 season. MINELLA CROONER has been touted as Gordon Elliott’s NH Chase for the season so here’s hoping he lines up and shows us what he’s made of but the yard also have another strong staying chaser in FRONTAL ASSAULT who does have the benefit of a run already this season
Last Cheltenham Festival Winners from Key Races mentioned:
Last Week In Review
Friday saw the start of The November Meeting at Cheltenham which on paper didn’t look to have the makings of a vintage 3-day card. HERMES ALLEN was the star performer in the Grade 2 Hyde Novices Hurdle and is now a general 10/1 chance for the Ballymore having started the day around a 33/1 poke. He was well supported before the off and was trading favourite in-running after the first hurdle. He was efficient in the main and had things his own way out in front and while you had to be impressed with the performance, but the race lacked any real depth and things won’t be so easy in better company. For now, the jury’s out on just how good he could be, and the yard have talked about him as chaser in the making. He’ll head to the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle over Christmas, where I’m afraid we’re unlikely to find out too much more with that race often lacking depth too.
Saturday was more about the Novice Chasers as THREE STRIPE LIFE got off to a winning start over at Naas. Sadly we lost GRAND JURY who I think would have had the race won but the pair did have the field strung out. I don’t believe that THREE STRIPE LIFE is a festival winning in waiting and I’d love to see him over a bit further too.
BANBRIDGE took the Grade 2 Arkle Trial at Cheltenham where I was expectant of a victory. He duly obliged but it didn’t leave me with the impression that he could land the Arkle in March. Having won the Martin Pipe at last year’s festival over the middle trip I suspect that’s where he’ll end up, so The Turners is a more likely option and at a top price of 12/1 that seems fair. The potential issue with that target is the race could be quite deep so for now it’s a case of waiting to see a few more debutants as the gut feeling right now would be that there’s going to be a few better than him.
We also had a potentially nice race in the Grade 3 Poplar Square Chase however unfortunately the first two in the betting failed to complete but we saw enough to know that COEUR SUBLIME would have won and GENTLEMAN DE MEE is no Champion Chaser.
Sunday was a disappointing one. I was at Cheltenham for the day and the crowds were not what they usually would be and neither was the atmosphere. I LIKE TO MOVE IT won The Greatwood with runner up GIN COCO having traded 1.14 in running. It was a resilient effort, he pulled clear of the second who in turn was a long way ahead of the third, but it was somewhat reminiscent of the Gin Coco we saw at Punchestown where he was weak in the finish there too. Harry Fry had stated in a Stable tour just last week that Gin Coco would likely head to the Sharp Novices Hurdle the same day instead of the Greatwood and after seeing FENNOR CROSS land that, you’d have thought Gin Coco may well have come back with another 1 next to his name had he taken on that engagement instead. In a round about way that shows how little the Grade 2 Supreme Trial form is likely to be worth.
Over at Navan we were left a little more disappointed when both FLAME BEARER and FERNY HOLLOW were withdrawn on account of the ground. This meant that HOLLOW GAMES was sent off favourite in a 2m 1f beginners chase which you’d have thought would be a sharp enough test for him but he passed with flying colours and genuinely impressed me. Now he was always the type to improve for a fence and for most of last season I thought he would appreciate a step up in trip but now I’m undecided. This means that he’s firmly on the radar as one to watch over the coming months and I do think he’s one that is worth seeing again and maybe again before deciding where his trip really lies. As it stands, I think he could be a Turners horse but he showed a great turn of foot the Arkle wouldn’t be out of the question either which wasn’t something I expected to be writing when I saw his entry.
I mentioned Ferny Hollow and his absence meant that RIVIERE D’ETEL was sent off a disappointing odds on favourite as her jumping cost her plenty but maybe not the race. ANDY DUFRESNE was back in third and slightly disappointing too on these terms but it meant that CAPTAIN GUINNESS was able to get his first win since landing a Grade 2 back in February and I’d suggest the level of form was no better than that going forward.
The eagerly awaited Lismullen Hurdle was also run on Sunday with the likes of BOB OLINGER, FLOORING PORTER, and ZANAHIYR all lining up. Each of these has been the subject of support in the last few months for the Stayers hurdle in March but it was HOME BY THE LEE who landed the spoils which left plenty scratching their heads after. Now I’m a fan of the winner, but I know he’s a Grade 3 horse, so the underlying feeling is disappointment again at this race. Flooring Porter did not look the same horse as 12 months ago so that must be a worry and Zanahiyr showed absolutely nothing aside from why he’s yet to win a Grade 1 and continues to be unprofessional. But perhaps Bob Olinger left the most curious feeling given he traded 1.03 in running yet was beaten. Now I don’t believe this horse was 100% right at Cheltenham, and I would be even more sure that he shouldn’t have run at Punchestown so those efforts I can slightly excuse. The issue now resides with the fact he’s shown all may not be well with him still, so I just hope they manage to get the old Bob back soon but even if they do, he’s not winning a stayers hurdle.
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