Cheltenham ante-post tipster Dave Young (A.K.A Cheltmental) is on hand to give us his A-Z of the Seasoned Hurdler division. He discusses some of the key horses who could be set to line up at the Festival, and which races they could/should be aiming for!
Dave has been involved in Antepost betting and the Cheltenham Festival for almost 20 years and he’s managed to make a good few quid from it. With this column, you’ll be able to have a fly on the wall experience as to what he’s looking forward to each week and how he views what’s happened after the events.
Alongside his thoughts on the racing, Dave will be putting up some suggested bets where he see’s appropriate.
GG ANTE-POST BOOK:
For the purposes of this column everything will be put up to a 1pt win stake. I typically do not stake EW for long term Antepost bets as I would prefer to put myself in the position to have multiple horses running for me, where I see fit.
25th January
ECHOES IN RAIN – MARES HURDLE – 10/1
PAISLEY PARK – STAYERS HURDLE – 8/1
10th January
4th January
Fakir D’Oudairies – Ryanair Chase @ 10/1 – NRNB with William Hill
20th December
Dawn Rising – Albert Bartlett Hurdle @ 25/1
7th December
THE STORYTELLER – Hunters Chase @ 9/1
HARMONYA MAKER – Mares Novices’ Hurdle @ 20/1
22nd November
PROSCHEMA – Stayers Hurdle @ 25/1
16th November
MONMIRAL – Arkle Novices Chase @ 33/1
BLUE LORD – Ryanair Chase @ 33/1
This week I’m taking a deeper look into The Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) since its inception in 2018. This gives us 5 years of data to work with and I’m going to run through every single race in chronological. Before that though let’s take a look at some Headline Numbers
Headline Numbers
There have been 29 Cheltenham Festival Winners who ran at The Dublin Racing Festival in the same season. Interestingly enough, almost half of those future festival winners did NOT win at the DRF.
Last season’s DRF produced 5 Festival winners, while in 2021 there were 11 Festival Winners, of which 6 of those were beaten in Ireland. 2020 and 2019 produced just 3 and 2 Cheltenham winners respectively, yet back in 2018 (The First Year of the DRF) 8 future festival winners were seen with just 3 of those winning at both festivals.
18 of the 28 Races in March have seen a winner at the DRF in the last 5 years, 9 of those have had more than one winner, with The Triumph & The Bumper seeing three. Of the 9 Handicaps at Cheltenham, 5 have not seen their winner at the DRF, but The Coral Cup, The Pertemps & The Plate have seen two each. Of the 7 future Cheltenham Festival winners, only one managed to win at the DRF.
The 10 races which have not received any help from the DRF over the last 5 years are (handicaps prefixed with ‘The’):
- The Ultima
- The Fred Winter
- Queen Mother Champion Chase
- The Grand Annual
- Turners
- Stayers Hurdle
- The Kim Muir
- The County Hurdle
- Foxhunters
- Mares’ Chase
All in all this shows us that there’s an abundance of festival clues to be found here and not always just with the winners.
I’ve displayed the race by year numbers below for the DRF and Festival races split into three groups:
- ALL Festival Winners
- Winners At Both
- Loser at DRF but winner at Cheltenham
ALL Festival Winners
Winners At Both
Loser at DRF but winner at Cheltenham
GG Cheltenham Ante-Post Book – 25th January
Cheltenham ante-post tipster Dave Young (A.K.A Cheltmental) is on hand to give us his A-Z of the Seasoned Hurdler division. He discusses some of the key horses who could be set to line up at the Festival, and which races they could/should be aiming for! Dave has been involved in Antepost betting and the Cheltenham…
Wed 25 Jan 2023Dublin Racing Festival Race by Race
Saturday
13:20 – 2m 6f Novice Hurdle
Quick Stats:
- 3/5 were aged 5
- 3/5 priced single figures
- 2/5 sporting first time Hood (Last two)
- 2/5 trained by Willie Mullins (Last two)
- 1/5 winning favourites
- 1/5 Cheltenham winners -Vanillier finished 10th but won The Albert Bartlett
Quick summary:
Only one Cheltenham Festival winner has come from this race and that was Vanillier who was a well beaten 10th. SANDOR CLEGANE would be the shortest priced Albert Bartlett horse who might run in here. Willie Mullins has won the last twice both with first time hoods so the application of Headgear for the well regarded GRANGECLARE WEST would be interesting.
13:55 – 2m Spring Juvenile
Quick Stats:
- 4/5 were priced 3/1 or lower
- 4/5 wore no headgear including Tongue Ties
- 4/5 trained by Joseph O’Brien or Willie Mullins
- 3/5 Cheltenham winners – Farclas finished 2nd in 2018
- 2/5 winning favourites
- 2/5 ridden by Paul Townend
Quick summary:
Ante-post Triumph Hurdle favourite LOSSIEMOUTH looks set to run here with the current second favourite BLOOD DESTINY another potential runner so we should have a big clue for who is most likely to win in March. Willie Mullins holds 7 of the 9 entrants so the prize is all but guaranteed to head back to Closutton however it might be worth pointing out that the twice he’s won this race, he’s not done it with the favourite in the market but those winners were the shortest price of his runners (only ran 1 in 2018) but interestingly enough he’s not had the favourite for this race in any of the last 5 years.
14:30 – 2m 1f Irish Arkle
Quick Stats:
- 4/5 winning favourites
- 3/5 trained by Willie Mullins
- 3/5 ridden by Paul Townend
- 3/5 were aged 7
- 2/5 sported a tongue tie but not for the first time
- 1/5 Cheltenham winners
Quick summary:
Just the one same season festival winner which came back in 2018 for Willie Mullins although it’s worth pointing out that both Le Richebourg (favourite at the time) & Energumene didn’t make it to Cheltenham that season so it might be a more useful trial than you’d think from the quick stats. Willie has 5 of the 8 entries and we’re going to find out who is the best Irish 2 mile chaser you’d hope, and off all the 8 entries just DYSART DYNAMO & BANBRIDGE are 7yo’s which has been the winning-most age and has landed the last three for good measure too.
15:05 – 3m Irish Gold Cup
Quick Stats:
- 4/5 trained by Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliott
- 3/5 were aged 9
- 3/5 were priced under 3/1
- 2/5 sporting headgear but not for the first time
- 0/5 winning favourites
- 0/5 Cheltenham winners
Quick summary:
Potentially all stats and history is off the table when you consider we have GALOPIN DES CHAMPS in this years renewal but he’ll be bidding to do what no other favourite has done in the last 5 running’s of this which is win and he’s also trying to be the first to even run in this race and win at Cheltenham the same season so it’s hardly a prolific trial. Still he’s an exceptional talent and prospect so reverting back to the opening gambit of this summary; all stats and history is off the table.
15:40 – 3m Handicap Hurdle
Quick Stats:
- 5/5 Rated between 125 & 130
- 4/5 priced single figures
- 2/5 ridden by a claimer
- 2/5 winning favourites
- 2/5 aged 6
- 2/5 trained by Willie Mullins
- 1/5 sporting a Tongue Tie but not for the first time
- 1/5 Cheltenham Winners – Delta Work in 2018 finished 4th and won The Pertemps
Quick summary:
Looking at rating band of the last 5 winners against the entries there are only 4 horses who meet the criteria (MAX FLAMINGO, A GREAT VIEW, PERCEVAL LEGALLOIS, THE LITTLE YANK) and it’s also one of those ticks the box as a 6yo as well as a single figure price so you can see why PERCEVAL LEGALLOIS is favourite but perhaps MAX FLAMINGO (already a course winner) is worth a second look now reverting back to the smaller obstacles a full 16lbs lower than he would be over fences at a price of around 16/1.
16:10 – 2m 1f Handicap Chase
Quick Stats:
- 3/5 Rated 133 or lower
- 3/5 were aged 6
- 2/5 ridden by a claimer (Last two)
- 2/5 trained by Joseph O’Brien (Last two)
- 2/5 sported some headgear but not for the first time
- 1/5 Cheltenham winners – The Shunter was 3rd in 2021 before winning The Plate
- 0/5 winning favourites
Quick summary:
No winner of this has gone on to taste same season festival success but The Shunter ran well in third before landing The Plate so you could argue this is a target race in is own right. A WAVE OF THE SEA has won the last two renewals and is back to attempt a hat-trick and being just 7 now he’s certainly not ruled out. GET MY DRIFT of same owner JP McManus looks the best of those rated below 133 which would have given you 3 of the last 5 winners while BARNACULLIA is interesting given he’s 6, rated 129, had a spin over hurdles in January and was last seen chasing in a 3m Grade 1 at Christmas and he’s around about a 16/1 poke here in his only entry of the weekend.
16:40 – 2m Bumper
Quick Stats:
- 5/5 winning favourites
- 4/5 trained by Willie Mullins
- 4/5 ridden by Patrick Mullins
- 3/5 aged 5
- 2/5 Cheltenham winners
Quick summary:
Favourites have a stranglehold on this race as does Willie Mullins but it’s not as clear this year were the pecking order stands for his entries in this and the same can be said for Gordon Elliott. FASCILE MODE warrants huge respect and has the potential to scare off the better rivals and in turn make his chance as favourite a very worthy one.
Sunday
13:10 – 2m 1f Mares Handicap Hurdle
Quick Stats:
- 5/5 not ridden by a claimer
- 5/5 sported some headgear – 1/5 First Time
- 4/5 Cheltenham winners – Concertista, Mrs Milner & Telmesomethinggirl all beaten here
- 3/5 winning favourites
- 2/5 trained by Gordon Elliott
- 2/5 ridden by Davy Russell
Quick Summary:
4 Cheltenham Festival winners have been seen in this race over the years and half of those won Handicaps while the other 2 landed the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle. All of the 5 winners of the race sported some form of headgear and 3 of the last 5 favourites took this. Gordon Elliott comes out as the top trainer with 2 wins from the last 5 and he holds the current favourite with LIBERTY DANCE who was narrowly denied at this meeting 12 months ago in the Mares’ Bumper.
13:40 – 2m 5f Novice Chase
Quick Stats:
- 5/5 winning favourites
- 3/5 trained by Willie Mullins (Last three)
- 3/5 ridden by Paul Townend (Last three)
- 3/5 Cheltenham winners – Rathvinden 2018 won The National Hunt Chase, The Storyteller 2018 won The Plate
- 2/5 were aged 7
Quick Summary:
Gordon Elliott has MIGHTY POTTER as the favourite in here with JAMES DU BERLAIS for Willie Mullins next in the betting. He’ll be pleased that 5 of the last 5 favourites have won this, however it’s crucial to point out Monalee was joint favourite with Gordon’s Sutton Place who pulled up. He’s had one other favourite run in her which was another joint favourite in 2020 where Battleoverdoyen fell. Aside from those two who failed to complete all his other runners have been 10.0 or bigger. Willie Mullins had no runner in this in 2019 but has had 16 runners across the other four years so he’s not afraid to run them against each other. This means that of his 7 entries we should see at least 3 or 4 line up. Of the race itself, it has produced winners, although MIGHTY POTTER is favourite for The Turners which is not one of the 3 races won in March but something that ran here although Faugheen went mighty close in 2020.
14:10 – 2m 1f Dublin Chase
Quick Stats:
- 5/5 winning favourites
- 5/5 trained by Willie Mullins
- 3/5 ridden by Paul Townend (Last three)
- 1/5 Cheltenham winners – Min 2020 won The Ryanair
Quick Summary:
BLUE LORD is going to be sent off a very short favourite and 3 of the last 5 had also been sent off odds-on. It’s a great race historically for the market leader but only MIN won here before tasting Festival success and he went on to win the Ryanair so our BLUE LORD bet isn’t quite in the bin yet despite the obvious negative that came in the Clarence House with Energumene well beaten. Shouldn’t make any difference but BLUE LORD wears a tongue-tie and there’s only been 5 of the 30 runners in this over the last 5 years who could say the same.
14:40 – 2m 5f Handicap Chase
Quick Stats:
- 4/5 rated 135 or lower
- 4/5 sported headgear – 1/4 First Time
- 3/5 rated between 130 & 135
- 2/5 ridden by a claimer
- 1/5 winning favourites
- 0/5 Cheltenham winners
Quick Summary:
Another race which appears to be a target in it’s own right with no Cheltenham festival winners for the same season being seen here. 4 of the last 5 were rated 135 or lower which halves the field on current entries and the majority of those also wore some form of headgear so that might be worth looking into. 6, 7 and 8 year olds have won this in the last 5 years which whittles those 13 rated 135 or below down to just 5 but previous winners GLAMORGAN DUKE and BIRCHDALE do still meet the rating criteria despite their age. Of those 5 though, all but RAMBRANLT’JAC & MALINA GIRL usually wear some headgear so again you can see why INDIGO BREEZE is favourite & NOW WHERE OR WHEN is as short as 7/1 in places. MARS HARPER is the other one so he’s of automatic interest at 20/1 especially when you look back at his run behind Mighty Potter earlier this season which might just take a significant form boost an hour earlier.
15:10 – 2m Irish Champion Hurdle
Quick Stats:
- 4/5 winning favourites (Last four)
- 4/5 were aged 7 or 8
- 3/5 trained by Henry De Bromhead (Last three)
- 3/5 ridden by Rachel Blackmore (Last three)
- 3/5 Cheltenham winners
Quick Summary:
This years renewal looks much more competitive than last years in fact the last 4 running’s have seen an odds-on favourite which STATE MAN looks unlikely to be, although possibly not far off. HONEYSUCKLE stands alone on the stats so while STATE MAN has looked really good so far this season, the Mare might just be raring to go for this one and I think will attract plenty of support.
15:40 – 2m Novice Hurdle
Quick Stats:
- 4/5 winning favourites
- 4/5 trained by Willie Mullins (Last four)
- 4/5 produced Cheltenham Winners – 2021 Produced two Galopin Des Champs won The Martin Pipe
- 4/5 were aged 6 or 7
- 2/5 ridden by Paul Townend (Last two)
Quick Summary:
We’ve seen 5 Cheltenham winners in this race with 4 of those doing the double, albeit 2 in The Supreme and 2 in The Ballymore so its not one to whittle down festival targets for certain. Worth mentioning that Galopin Des Champs was sent off 100/1 for this race back in 2021 so actual form as opposed to potential trumps all in here. This will be the first real test for FACILE VEGA but he’s likely up to it.
16:10 – 2m Handicap Hurdle
Quick Stats:
- 4/5 were aged 6 or 7
- 4/5 priced single figures
- 3/5 rated 131 or lower
- 3/5 trained by Charles Byrnes
- 2/5 ridden by a claimer
- 1/5 Cheltenham winners – Bleu Berry finished 17th, won The Coral Cup in 2018
- 0/5 winning favourites
Quick Summary:
GAELIC WARRIOR looks likely to head here and props up the market because of it and his mark of 143 could afford some room to manoeuvre although we’ve not seen him tested this season. Using the trends from above though you’d land on HEY JOHNNY who is around an 8/1 poke while both AN MHI and FORTUNEDEFORTUNA for Gordon Elliott could shortern and tick another box themselves. While this columns is more geared to what we’ve seen I’d like to mention Henry De Bromhead was very complementary of BALLYADAM recently and suggested that he was surprised with his no show in Galway but is expecting a big run from him soon so at 16/1, and while he may be facing a good things in GAELIC WARRIOR, he’ll be taking a few pound of mine this weekend.
16:40 – 2m Mares Bumper
Quick Stats:
- 4/5 priced 16/1 or higher
- 3/5 were aged 5
- 2/5 trained by Willie Mullins
- 1/5 sported headgear and for the first time
- 1/5 Cheltenham winners
Quick Summary:
Typically a high priced runner wins this but then records are there to be broken and probability suggests a market principle is due to come out on top. Last years winner LILY DU BERLAIS is in the field while Willie Mullins has two entries (one is another Munir & Souede owned horse like Lily) for those who like backing Willies in the bumper.