Cheltenham ante-post tipster Dave Young (A.K.A Cheltmental) is on hand to talk us through his thoughts for the week ahead, as we edge ever closer to the Festival next month. He gives his thoughts on some of the Cheltenham runners we could see in action this week, and a brief insight into the handicaps ahead of their entry announcements this week.
Dave has been involved in Antepost betting and the Cheltenham Festival for almost 20 years and he’s managed to make a good few quid from it. With this column, you’ll be able to have a fly on the wall experience as to what he’s looking forward to each week and how he views what’s happened after the events.
Alongside his thoughts on the racing, Dave will be putting up some suggested bets where he see’s appropriate.
Ante-Post Outlook
7th February
FUN FUN FUN – CHAMPION BUMPER – 8/1 BetUK but recommend 6/1 Bet365 NRNB
MINELLA CROONER – NATIONAL HUNT CHASE – 20/1 BetUK but recommend 16/1 Bet365 NRNB
25th January
ECHOES IN RAIN – MARES HURDLE – 10/1
PAISLEY PARK – STAYERS HURDLE – 8/1
10th January
4th January
Fakir D’Oudairies – Ryanair Chase @ 10/1 – NRNB with William Hill
20th December
Dawn Rising – Albert Bartlett Hurdle @ 25/1
7th December
THE STORYTELLER – Hunters Chase @ 9/1
HARMONYA MAKER – Mares Novices’ Hurdle @ 20/1
22nd November
PROSCHEMA – Stayers Hurdle @ 25/1
16th November
MONMIRAL – Arkle Novices Chase @ 33/1
BLUE LORD – Ryanair Chase @ 33/1
Festival Thoughts
Handicap entries for The Cheltenham Festival are released this week and I’ve touched on this subject before. This is an ideal opportunity to assess the potential runners and to look at what you think the Irish runners will receive as a UK mark. In recent years there’s been lots of talk about UK ‘TAX’ being applied and typically the rule is 5-7lbs. However that has created a slightly lazy assumption from bettors I believe because there are some for who 5lbs might be light and others who may appear harshly treated on the same rise.
It does take a little time to work through, but it’s really helpful form study for the big week because you’re going to know what you think the horse has achieved, where they might be best suited and what they might receive as a UK mark. This becomes valuable research when the weights are unveiled as you can pre-empt those who may or may not make the cut, those who are going to be too highly rated and those that look liked they’ve been either assessed correctly, harshly or lightly.
The Week Ahead
WEDNESDAY
A few final Festival pointers could be had this week starting with Punchestown on Wednesday where BRANDY LOVE will have her first start for new owner Mrs J Donnelly. She’s been prominent in the betting for the Mares Hurdle all season and despite not being seen yet there’s still plenty of confidence behind her. The lightly raced 7yo was impressive at Punchestown when slamming Love Envoi by 8 lengths whilst sporting a first time hood (which is retained here). She did however jumped with issue on her second start over hurdles, which was on her penultimate run, so while she’s clearly a horse with a massive engine and one who goes well fresh (record reads 111 after a break in excess of 75 days), she has been a beaten favourite twice on her second start of the season. I don’t want to say that having this prep run is going to be detrimental to her Cheltenham chance but it’s well worth bearing in mind.
She takes on 6 others with the chief danger coming from QUEENS BROOK according to the betting. Another mare high on the list of those in with a chance in March but also another who has inconsistent form and has twice been beaten odds-on already this term. Sure to make dents in the Mares Hurdle market but not one to be involved in from an ante-post perspective.
THURSDAY
Thurles on Thursday and The Michael Purcell Novice Hurdle which has thrown up Martin Pipe winners in the past and while it may not have been so useful in recent years it’s still a race I like to keep a close eye on. If we’re thinking Cheltenham capability then only REXEM & SA FUREUR really whet the appetite, although the former has been well beaten the last twice and while I’m lukewarm on him the drop back in trip might just help him return to realising his potential, however he’s not in the Martin Pipe. Sa Fureur would be more of the one to watch I’d think with Gordon using this race as a target more than most trainers. He’s currently 132 rated and looks worth all of that and I think the better ground may just see him in a better light which could be handy come March, as it’s not looking like we’re going to be getting a deluge of rain any time soon.
SATURDAY
Saturday over in Ireland there is a Grade 3 Juvenile in the opener at Fairyhouse which was won by Burning Victory in 2020 before she was a fortunate winner of The Triumph following Goshen’s dramatic unseat. Willie Mullins has two in the race, with ZENTA for JP McManus an interesting filly.
Back over in the UK we have an entire Pertemps sponsored card at Chepstow which sees the final Qualifier, but the feature meeting of the weekends comes at Haydock where we have three Grade 2’s starting with The Adonis. The entries suggest it could be a relatively deep renewal so anything winning by a wide margin would be worth taking note of. I would just say that the race has seen some recent impressive winners who flopped a little after (Solo in 2020) so just tread carefully and try to balance the recency bias that this fixture often conjures up. Following this we have The Pendil Novices Chase over 2 and a half miles where BOOTHILL should take some stopping despite having to concede weight all round, although SOLO might have something to say about that if putting his best foot forward. The final of the three Grade 2’s is The Dovecote which unfortunately looks like a very weak renewal.
SUNDAY
Across the sea there’s a couple of Graded races at Naas starting with a Grade 2 two mile Chase. CHACUN POUR SOI could line up which would look like a penalty kick although he does have a little to prove at the moment. 2 mile Grade 2 hurdle comes in the 15:10 and Willie Mullins could run TACTICAL MOVE who defied an 1158 day layoff to land his Maiden hurdle last month in Punchestown when very easy to back. He did jump left so we’ll keep an eye on that in here but despite the fact he’s a 9yo Novice Hurdler having just his 3rd start under rules, he was well touted in his early days and might just put on a bit of a show providing the dreaded ‘bounce’ stays away.
Until Next Week
I’ll be back with the final instalment of this column next week where I’ll mentioned the handicappers which I think could be worth keeping on side of and hopefully some suggested bets if the prices are right.