In a brand new segment, we welcome expert Cheltenham ante-post tipster Dave Young (A.K.A Cheltmental) to guide us through his thoughts on the previous weeks racing, along with looking ahead to the upcoming races that could feature some winners at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival.
Dave has been involved in Antepost betting and the Cheltenham Festival for almost 20 years and he’s managed to make a good few quid from it. With this column, you’ll be able to have a fly on the wall experience as to what he’s looking forward to each week and how he views what’s happened after the events.
Alongside his thoughts on the racing, Dave will be putting up some suggested bets where he see’s appropriate.
GG ANTE-POST BOOK:
For the purposes of this column everything will be put up to a 1pt win stake. I typically do not stake EW for long term Antepost bets as I would prefer to put myself in the position to have multiple horses running for me, where I see fit.
22nd November
PROSCHEMA – Stayers Hurdle @ 25/1
16th November
MONMIRAL – Arkle Novices Chase @ 33/1
BLUE LORD – Ryanair Chase @ 33/1
The Week Ahead
Friday sees two Grade 2’s run at Newbury which have a habit of producing future festival winners, but we could also see JET POWERED in the first race, a maiden hurdle typically targeted by Nicky Henderson, who is currently second favourite for The Supreme. Just before we move on from this; Nicky has won this with JONBON, SON OF CAMAS, JENKINS and BUVEUR D’AIR in recent years, all of whom did not go on to win at The Festival. SHISHKIN did debut at Newbury and fell however he ran at the middle December meeting and not in this.
Back to the Grade 2’s and The Berkshire Novices Chase comes up first. CHAMP won this before winning the 3m Novices Chase at Cheltenham in March in 2020 and it’s even thrown up a same season Gold Cup winner in CONEYGREE back in 14/15. Despite The Berkshire being contested over 2 and a half miles it’s typically a better indicator to future staying chasers with the likes of DENMAN, BOBS WORTH and CLAN DES OBEAUX on the winners roll. STAGE STAR, winner of The Challow Hurdle here last season, will be a warm order to land this and I hadn’t really pictured him as a staying chaser before this entry. There have been winners of this race who wouldn’t stay, but in light of what’s been mentioned, and the indicator to future staying chasers, STAGE STAR just got a whole lot more interesting as a prospect with the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Christmas a possibility and there was already lots to like about his chasing debut too.
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Shortly after we see The Long Distance Hurdle which has had some really interesting renewals in recent years. THISTLECRACK was the last to do the double back in the 2015/16 season and UNOWHATIMEANHARRY was beaten favourite the season after however it’s worth noting that those horses were not the most fancied runners in the Stayers Hurdle market at the time. PROSCHEMA is almost certain to run with only bits of rain the forecast. He ran out an impressive winner last month when landing The West Yorkshire Hurdle by some way and I’m not so sure he’s as ground dependant as some might. I’d be worried about him on soft or slower ground, and we’ve had that recently at The Festival, but typical spring ground would suit. He’ll potentially face 2020 Broadway Novices’ Chase winner CHAMP who is 4 from 5 around this track and his only defeat came over 2m while chasing; which arguably was one of his better efforts (posted a 170 RPR joint only to that Cheltenham Festival win). He’s 10 turning 11 and looks regressive now so I’d fancy that PROSCHEMA could beat him and in doing so he’ll still be talking a respected scalp. Previous winners of this race PAISLEY PARK and THOMAS DARBY could be in opposition too while DASHEL DRASHER picked up the pieces at Aintree last month and remains over hurdles for now.
PROSCHEMA is a top price 25/1 shot for the Stayers’ Hurdle in March which I think is more than fair with the expectation that he’s going to land his race this weekend. He will need to step forward again at either Ascot for the Long Walk or at Prestbury Park for the Cleeve Hurdle, but I think he’s being underestimated at present and I have issue with plenty at the head of that market, as discussed last week, which is why I want him in the book
Saturday sees the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth run and Nicky Henderson holds all the aces with both EPATANTE and CONSTITUTION HILL among the confirmations. He’s also the last trainer to do the double with this and the Champion Hurdle with BUVEUR D’AIR in 17/18. Last year’s joint winner NOT SO SLEEPY is set to run again and Gordon Elliott, who last ran SAMCRO in here, has PIED PIPER as an option who would be very interesting although he’s far from certain to run. The conditions last year were more testing than the Good To Soft going description would lead you to believe so I’m not worried about the weather forecast but I do think EPATANTE is going to be better this season over a bit further which she showed when winning in fine style at Aintree at the intermediate trip. Currently, she’s a top price 5/1 for the Mares Hurdle in March and that’s potentially a reasonable enough price however she’s shown her best when able to take a lead and this race will likely be a small field and a tactical enough affair so it’s purely a watching brief for me. Who knows; she might even get turned over and provide a bit of a shock this weekend which could mean she takes a walk the Festival market.
Back at Newbury we have another Grade 2 Novices’ Chase, this time the John Francome over just shy of 3 miles. Recent winners of this tend to be above average with NATIVE RIVER, THISTLECRACK, ELEGANT ESCAPE, SANTINI & AHOY SENOR all taking the race. It’s crucial to acknowledge though that it’s not produced a same season Cheltenham Festival winner although all of those mentioned placed in March. That is all apart from THISTLECRACK, who missed the Festival through injury but was favourite for the Gold Cup. This could spell potentially bad news for fans of THYME HILL who is set to run here following a useful chasing debut. He did look a little slow that day and possibly more of a National Hunt chase type although I’m not sure trainer Philip Hobbs would go down that route plus he does have a classy element to him. He’s 20/1 for the NH Chase and 8/1 for the Brown Advisory at the time of writing just for future reference. Paul Nichols will likely run GELINO BELLO here who was good value for the winning margin in his chase debut where the chief rival failed to start (unseated just after the tape went up) and he had to set his own fractions. This race should have much more pace to it, and we’ll see how much there is between him and THYME HILL at this stage.
There’s also the Coral Gold Cup which has thrown up future Gold Cup winners in NATIVE RIVER (155
OR), BOBS WORTH (160 OR) & DENMAN (161 OR) but I’m not sure we’ve got a horse of that genuine calibre and potential in this field. A fantastic race in it’s own right though and this years’ renewal looks as competitive as ever. Peronsally I’ve had a few quid on CORACH RAMBLER and little bit more on OSCAR ELITE.
PROSCHEMA is a top price 25/1 shot for the Stayers’ Hurdle in March which I think is more than fair
with the expectation that he’s going to land his race this weekend. He will need to step forward
again at either Ascot for the Long Walk or at Prestbury Park for the Cleeve Hurdle, but I think he’s
being underestimated at present and I have issue with plenty at the head of that market
Over in Ireland on Saturday there’s a beginners chase over 2m 4f to kick start the card and it’s been won by BOB OLINGER and ENERGUMENE in the last two years. There’s a whole host of quality potential runners including CLASSIC GETAWAY, JOURNEY WITH ME and MINELLA COCOONER so you’ll want to keep an eye on this one. There’s another race at Gowran on Saturday you’ll firmly want to be locked into as FACILE VEGA could make his hurdle debut in the Maiden Hurdle at 14:15. Willie Mullins took this in 2020 with FERNY HOLLOW (who beat BOB OLINGER) before he missed the season through injury and in the past the likes of EASYWORK and INVITATION ONLY have landed this before going on to step up in trip after.
Sunday’s feature is the Monksfield Novices’ Hurdle with AMERICAN MIKE the most notable entry in a race which Gordon Elliott has won 6 of the last 8 including same season Festival winner SAMCRO in 2017. AMERICAN MIKE had his critics after winning on debut with plenty suggesting that he wants togo out in trip which meant the Albert Bartlett was talked about plenty, but I see no rush to remove him from the Ballymore picture as he looked in desperate need of some better-quality horses around him. We’ll find out a lot more here, because he should face the likes of AFFORABLE FURY, a two time hurdle winner already and in impressive fashion the last day when stepped up in trip, INTHEPOCKET, a runaway winner on hurdling debut for JP and Henry De Bromhead on heavy ground at 2 miles and LA MALMASON, a WALK IN THE PARK filly who is a half sister to STAGE STAR who won an ordinary enough mares Maiden on debut but will get her fillies and 4yo allowance in here. I wouldn’t be in a rush to back AMERICAN MIKE for any race at Cheltenham given how defensively the bookmakers have priced him, but it’s a must watch race and there will be plenty of future winners in this race for sure.
The Most Recent Future Cheltenham Festival Winners from Key Races Mentioned:
Last Week In Review
Two bets were advised last week and both horses were in action after publication so it’s only right that we start by reviewing their efforts. MONMIRAL (put up for the Arkle at 33/1) was no match for JONBON on debut having looked to struggle at points with the furious gallop being set. In the immediate aftermath on Racing Twitter you would have thought we’d just seen the rebirth of ARKLE himself. That’s more of a reflection of the want from the fans of this sport than of the reality of the performance and this is partly why I put MONMIRAL up last week. JONBON was a 4/1 chance for March pre-race while MONMIRAL was of course 33/1. If you were to scale those odds to a 100% betting market for their match up (I appreciate it’s not the same but just bear with me) you’d see them priced around 2/13 (87%) vs 13/2 (13%). I also put up a vote on Twitter (which caused some discussion) where over 80% of the votes suggested that they thought JONBON would win and around 14% expected a MONMIRAL victory. So betting aside, it was VERY likely that JONBON would win this, and for me he did what was expected of him, but no more.
He returned a 2/5 favourite vs 11/4 for MONMIRAL which would scale the Ante-post prices, pre-race, to much closer to 8/1 JONBON and 20/1 MONMIRAL. The point of me bringing this up; well, it’s simply to say that before they ran I saw MONMIRAL as value for March and I would suggest the result hasn’t changed the expectation as much as the pricing over reaction might suggest. MONMIRAL ran well in the main and if he hadn’t have bumped into JONBON he would have a 1 next to his name and likely would have shortened as is the way with Ante-post betting in it’s current state. But I’m not disappointed or losing faith because he was beaten, or because his price has drifted in places to 40/1, I’m actually excited to see round 2 between the pair which will hopefully take place at Sandown in a couple of Weekends which has been confirmed the next step for each following this race. I don’t think MONMIRAL was given a really hard time of it, I think that JONBON didn’t have as much left in him as people might think, and I do think that in a race with a more even gallop that MONMIRAL can be held up and show his stamina in the finish. We saw what happened to JONBON going the blistering pace at Grade 1 level did to him in the Supreme, it’s not sustainable for him at the highest level. I will finish this part by saying that clearly MONMIRAL needs to step forward, and should he not visibly improve, hopefully against JONBON, next time out then I’d be writing him off for an Arkle, but don’t write him off just yet.
BLUE LORD was the second recommendation and you’ll be pleased to read that this will be a far shorter review. He won, the race turned into a sprint, so we didn’t learn conclusively about his stamina at this trip and grade, but we did learn that he’s going to be aimed for The Ryanair (Willie said he’ll follow an ALLAHO route to Cheltenham) so I’m happy we’ve got him in the book, although he’s short enough now based on that performance.
On the same card at Clonmel both SCARLET AND DOVE and ELIMAY were beaten in the Listed Mares chase won by DOLCITA. I’d say that the former came out with more credit than the latter although both will be better for that run. DOLCITA shouldn’t be winning the Mares’ Chase in March but she did run well
AUTHORISED SPEED is worth mentioning because he ran out a wide margin and comfortable winner last Tuesday but I’m not as excited by him as some others. Clearly it was a decent performance but for me the RPR of 138 is about right given the runner up was beaten by a 112 rated horse in receipt of 9lbs. I know you need to take the result on its own merit, but I’d say if he’s going to turn into a Graded novice hurdler for the season, he does need to step forward so the jury’s out for now. Another wide margin winner was FIRESTREAM at Chepstow on Friday who raced keenly enough through most of the race and didn’t jump with the most fluency but showed he has an engine to overcome that to win in good style. The race was as shallow as they come though so he’s another who will be better tested stepping up in class, that could help him settle though so he’s one to keep an eye on although much like AUTHORISED SPEED, I’m not sure we’ve seen a Graded hurdler just yet.
THUNDER ROCK was an impressive winner of the Novices’ Handicap Chase at Ascot on Friday and is now officially rated 150 over fences. He’ll have to be tried in better company, and possibly has achieved that rating due to running over the middle trip as opposed to pinning his colours to the mast of a stayer or a speedball. I’m not convinced he can run beyond that number any time soon but I’m happy to be proven wrong. It’s interesting in this sphere now after Willie Mullins made comments about SIR GERHARD in that he’s not quite ready or showing what he’d like or expect at home. This would have big implications on The Turners market at the middle trip so it’s something to bear in mind over the coming weeks as plenty behind him in the betting might look overpriced in hindsight should he not make it as a Novice Chaser this season.
Saturday at Ascot was marred by the ground which caused several notable non-runners. It was Nicky Henderson who received the most attention on the matter as CONSTITUION HILL was pulled out. Personally, I thought it was predictable given that he’d mentioned in the middle of last week that he was a doubt on the ground. He was 1 of 12 non-runners due to unsuitable ground which does confirm he wasn’t just being over precautious. I understand the frustration in wanting to see the best horses race, but for me, the onus falls onto the racecourse itself to ensure the best possible racing surface for the time of year and the card it’s holding. Cheltenham last week was a shadow of former November meetings and I’d blame the racecourse for that too. There is only so much within our control though, so not to say it’s solely the racecourses responsibility, but they have far more control of the racing surface than any trainer does. The control a trainer does have though is to decide what they do with their own horses
Onto the results and we saw COOLE CODY win a match in the Grade 2 1965 chase and GOSHEN back in the winners enclosure following a great run in the Grade 2 Ascot hurdle. Neither of these are future Cheltenham Festival winners but it was great to see each of them land a notable race. THAMES WATER, a well-bred full brother to MINELLA MELODY, was impressive in the bumper so hopefully we’ll see him back here next month for the Class 1 Listed bumper where we’ll find out a bit more.
Haydock was much more reliable in terms of fields and TAHMURAS overcame racing in snatches to win the Listed Novice hurdle well in the end. The race lacked any depth though and he might want a step up in both trip and class, but the Tolworth Hurdle has been mentioned as a next target, so we’ll see how he travels in better company there. HITMAN was phenomenal and while I expected him to win this race well, he was better than I thought he might be. He is only a 6yo turning 7 so there’s lots more to come and hopefully he’ll get his chance against the big kids in the King George, a race which should suit him. It’s worth remembering he was a second season Novice last year, so what he might lack in experience and age, I’m sure he makes up for in home schooling and training. He’s not been to Cheltenham yet so he might be a Melling Chase horse for the spring plus Paul Nicholls has hinted that BRAVEMANSGAME could be his Ryanair horse for this season.
PROTEKTORAT ran out a ready winner of the Grade 1 Betfair Chase with reigning Gold Cup champ A PLUS TARD never really travelling and pulled up in the race. I was a bit bemused early on with Harry Skelton sitting just in front of A PLUS TARD because he wasn’t travelling, but it’s much easier to see this and comment from the sidelines than in a race riding situation. Harry did make use of PROTEKTORAT early enough in the race though and it would appear he was running his own race rather than waiting for a move from Rachel Blackmore on the favourite. I was impressed with the winner, but I’ve no doubt he was trained to the minute for the race on Saturday so he potentially could lack a real challenge before the Gold Cup if they try to plot an easier route to that. I know the lure of the triple crown isn’t there like it used to be in the days of KAUTO STAR, but I’d be desperate to see him take his chance in the King George as he’s every right to put in a bold show. I wouldn’t be rushing to back him for a Gold Cup just yet though
Over in Ireland we saw KILCRUIT make his chasing debut but his main rival JOURNEY WITH ME was a late non-runner so we learned very little other than he jumps magnificently. MIDNIGHT RUN picked up the Grade 2 Novices chase but he was entitled to run well given how much chase experience he has, and it confirmed that the race still won’t be a crucial factor in deciding who might win the big novice chases in the spring. QUEENS BROOK got back to winning ways but was facing HEAVEN HELP US over a trip too short for her so we’ll need to see more if she’s going to a Mares Hurdle winner in waiting, but she has the potential to make into a major player at the very least
Sunday we saw two Cheltenham Festival winners back in the winners enclosure with DELTA WORK landing the opener and STATE MAN landing the feature Grade 1 Morgiana Hurdle. The former looks rock solid for the Cross Country but he’s priced as such while STATE MAN didn’t blow me away despite dispatching of multiple Grade 1 winner SHARJAH with relative ease. That initial reaction was upgraded when I watched the race back and saw how much more there is potentially to come. He didn’t jump as well as a seasoned pro but then why would he, it was his first race in open company. We’ll learn more at Christmas I hope, and we might or should see him face HONEYSUCKLE before March. He’s certainly a horse with great potential, I’m just not so sure we’ll see it over hurdles, but he’s already achieved a lot more than most
DARRENS HOPE took the Florida Pearl Novices chase but I was more focussed on MINELLA CROONER who was mentioned in the column last week. I was a little disappointed that he was beaten but it was his first run over fences, it was a Grade 2 and it was much better than when he was seen following a set back so I’m confident there’s bundles more to come. There were quite a few fences missed in the race and MINELLA CROONER would have benefitted from that, but I think him being outbattled may be a good sign for future prospects because he looks like he would appreciate a significant step up in trip. He’s 25/1 top price for the NH Chase now but a general 20/1 shot so I think it best to keep him on the radar but off the team sheet for now. Entries for him and how he comes out of the race would provide valuable information before deciding whether we pull the trigger or not