Cheltenham ante-post tipster Dave Young (A.K.A Cheltmental) guides us through his thoughts on the previous weeks racing, along with looking ahead to the upcoming races that could feature some winners at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival.
Dave has been involved in Antepost betting and the Cheltenham Festival for almost 20 years and he’s managed to make a good few quid from it. With this column, you’ll be able to have a fly on the wall experience as to what he’s looking forward to each week and how he views what’s happened after the events.
Alongside his thoughts on the racing, Dave will be putting up some suggested bets where he see’s appropriate.
GG ANTE-POST BOOK:
For the purposes of this column everything will be put up to a 1pt win stake. I typically do not stake EW for long term Antepost bets as I would prefer to put myself in the position to have multiple horses running for me, where I see fit.
A race I’ll want to get covered at some point is The Foxhunters Chase and I think now is the time to pull the trigger on THE STORYTELLER following his most recent point win on Sunday at Quakerstown. His 7 and a half length victory meant he’s notched up three wins in this sphere following a near 400-day layoff. He’s progressed with each run and this latest effort was a really good performance in beating Some Are Lucky who himself had won his last two points by over 20 lengths in each. It may not always be the classy horse who lands this race, so to mention that he is already a Cheltenham Festival winner and has raced exclusively on the New Course and has posted significantly higher RPR’s than his OR in 3 of those 4 races may be futile. He’ll also be the oldest horse to land this since Earth Mover in 2004 and it would be Gordon’s first Foxhunters winner but at a top price of 9/1 he’s only going to shorten in my opinion and he’s the only one in the market I’d want on my team sheet.
HARMONYA MAKER is a top price 20/1 for the Mares Novices Hurdle which is far too big. She beat LAW ELLA on hurdling debut by a wide margin and while stable mate Deeply Superficial did the same, albeit a smaller margin but very comfortably, Harmonya Maker has always been held in high regard and has plenty of racecourse experience. She could be seen this Sunday at Punchestown where she won her bumper in impressive fashion and Deeply Superficial is in there too. I’m not sure they’ll face off but I think it’s worth getting her in the book now because she’ half the price in some places and at 20/1 I’d be happy to have her in the book with one eye on adding another to this race should we need it.
7th December
THE STORYTELLER – Hunters Chase @ 9/1
HARMONYA MAKER – Mares Novices’ Hurdle @ 20/1
22nd November
PROSCHEMA – Stayers Hurdle @ 25/1
16th November
MONMIRAL – Arkle Novices Chase @ 33/1
BLUE LORD – Ryanair Chase @ 33/1
The Week Ahead
With below zero temperatures forecast for most of this week we could see fixtures hit or at least we’ll see field sizes affected. This also will play a part in how much to consider some of the winners over the weekend with a view to the big spring festivals. However, there is the potential for some exciting racing and hopefully across the sea it will still be nice racing ground so let’s get stuck in.
Friday
Friday sees the start of Cheltenham’s two-day International fixture and hopefully we’ll see the Cross Country Handicap Chase run. DELTA WORK was often sighted as good ground horse but put that to bed when landing the Cross Country back in March downing stable mate and legend of the game Tiger Roll. EASYSLAND, the 2020 Cross Country winner and 2021 runner up (who is only 8 turning 9) will be in receipt of 23 pounds from Delta Work so despite his lack of form there’s scope for a big run from him. BACK ON THE LASH has won round here before on good ground too so he’s going to be a major player with the race being run as a handicap.
Saturday
Saturday provides 4 Graded races and a listed contest with a few pointers towards March historically. Doncaster’s December Novices’ Chase over 3m has Grade 2 status and was won last year by Threeunderthrufive, but the race is yet to produce a same season Festival winner. On the same card we have the Listed Summit Juvenile Hurdle which has produced some nice types and even a Triumph Hurdle winner back in 04/05 in Peace And Co. Ground will likely reduce the field size here and quite a few are entered here and at Cheltenham for their Triumph Trial but the early market would suggest that Joseph O’Briens NUSRET will line up and this one caught a few peoples eyes on his hurdling debut last month. He’s another Munir & Souede runner like Peace And Co however I’m not sold on him just yet and we might not learn to much here unless it’s a very comfortable victory. I’d quite like to see MEDYAF for Dan Skelton in here because I don’t think he was suited to Cheltenham the last day.
Cheltenham start Saturday’s card with the Triumph Trial, which I touched on before and it was Defi Du Seuil in 16/17 who took this before his first of two Festival wins. You’d think SCRIPTWRITER would go here too and he was very good the last day, but again I’m not sold on him as a future Grade 1 winner so my eyes would firmly be on PERSEUS WAY for Gary Moore who was an eyecatcher in defeat behind Scriptwriter. He bolted up after and while he needs to keep improving his jumping, he clearly has an engine and the general 25/1 about him for March could look big if he is able to get his head in front in here. Again though, you’d want to see the winner doing it readily if we’re to take them seriously for the big races going forward.
The first of the two Grade 2’s on the card is the International Hurdle where Greatwood winner I LIKE TO MOVE IT is vying for favouritism alongside former Champion Hurdler EPATANTE. Good ground merchant KNAPPERS HILL is close in behind although is giving weight away. It looks an interesting renewal, and it will be key to remember that this ground is likely much quicker than anything we’ll experience come March. Rooster Booster was the last horse to win this and the Champion Hurdle in the same season and like I Like To Move It, he also landed the Greatwood carrying top weight. He’s a 50/1 poke for the big race in March before this but despite his solid record around here, he’s twice been well beaten at The Festival which tempers any enthusiasm surrounding that seemingly big price.
The second is an Albert Bartlett Trial, registered as The Bristol Novices’ Hurdle, and Kilbricken Storm did me a big favour in winning this and the big one in the same season back in 17/18. Its worth mentioning with him though, he was a bigger price on the day (available at 50/1) and was top priced 33/1 after winning this, so I wouldn’t always jump in to back one early for that race. Blazing Khal won this last year and was well fancied for The Potato race before meeting with a setback and Unowhatimeanharry also did the double in 15/16 so there’s a few reasons to watch this with interest. OUTLAW PETER won well the last day and will relish this ground while WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT ran OK here last month behind HERMES ALLEN but would probably prefer it softer. The same is true for DE LEGISLATOR for Lucinda Russell who won with a bit in hand last time out and should he line up I think the early show of 33/1 for this race is big. He could be soft ground dependant though, so we’ll have to see if they let him take his chance or not but he’s one for your notebooks all the same.
Over in Ireland we have the Grade 3 Klairon Davis Novice Chase which Gordon has won 4 of the last 5 runnings. He has HOLLOW GAMES, MARS HAPRER and THREE STRIPE LIFE all in contention but you’d think that MIDNIGHT RUN for Joseph O’Brien will also line up so there will be some depth to the race. Riviere D’etel, Andy Dufresne, Tornado Flyer & Hardline are the last four winners of this race who all commanded respect going into the Spring but they all failed to deliver.
Sunday
Sunday has two decent cards at Cork and Punchestown with The Hilly Way & The John Durkan the main events. We’ll start with the latter as it’s the only Grade 1 this weekend and we’ll hopefully see Gold Cup favourite GALOPIN DES CHAMPS in action. CONFLATED & FAKIR D’OUDARIES could also line up so it’s going to be a race with depth I’m sure but really, we’re expecting a demolition from the Willie Mullins charge. He’s already a general 5/2 chance for the big one in March which feels awfully short, especially when you consider the vibes around last year’s John Durkan winner Allaho are not all positive. He obviously won the Ryanair after this but Kicking King did the double into the Gold Cup back in 04/05 and Willie used this for Djakadam as a sighter before The Blue Ribband event in March.
We have both APPRECIATE IT & FLAME BEARER entered in the 2m 1f Beginners’ Chase on the card and there’s also the listed Mares Novices’ Hurdle I mentioned at the start where DEEPLY SUPERFICIAL & HARMONYA MAKER for Gordon Elliott are both entered, although connections of the former have LA MALMASON with Gavin Cromwell who may run instead.
Over at Cork The Hilly Way was won by ENERGUEMENE who went on to win Willie Mullins his first Champion Chase and aside from CAPTAIN GUINNESS the field looks quite poor so he should win as he likes proving the ground doesn’t quicken up too much. If it did I expect he wouldn’t run but he’s not desperate for the testing surface many suggest so it will just be nice to hopefully see him out on track. The 6/4 about him for another Champion Chase seems about right as really Edwardsone looks to be the only threat, but he looks to be a serious one.
Before this we should see either or both ALLEGORIE DE VASSY & DINOBLUE in the Grade 2 Mares Novices’ Chase. The latter was a course and distance winner on debut, but the former is already 4/1 favourite for the Mares’ Chase following 2 decent wins at Fairyhouse last season. She should improve for a fence and the division is crying out for a new heroin so I’m hopeful she can be it. I would say that she has the potential as opposed to the fact she’s proven herself, so we’ll sit back and watch for now.
There’s also a Grade 3 Novices’ Stayers Hurdle which hasn’t thrown up a Festival winner but Black Hercules did win the season after as a Chaser and he was sent off favourite for the Albert Bartlett the same season as when winning this. It’s definitely a race to keep an eye on though because on paper it looks to be a Grade 3 in name and nature, but should something bolt up I’d take notice.
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The Week In Review
BALLYGRIFFINCOTTAGE was a very impressive winner of a Novices’ Chase at Haydock which wouldn’t be the easiest place to make your chasing debut. He is a 7yo turning 8 who’s had his issues so with that in mind I would suggest he’ll be a horse who will show his best on soft or slower ground which makes him less attractive for those Spring Festivals from an ante-post perspective.
Thursday TELMESOMETHINGGIRL was beaten by GLENGOULY in a beginners’ chase, and she posted her lowest RPR since the summer of 2020. I’d suggest the pair should not be in the forefront of Spring Festival thoughts however the form may work out better than it first looks with a 137 rated mare a well beaten back in third so keep that in mind going forward.
Friday saw GELINO BELLO win over 3m in a match race and I don’t think we learnt anything. He’ll head to the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Christmas where we should finally get a handle on how good he could be. Over at Sandown it was another winner from Paul Nicholls’ yard who landed the Grade 2 Winter Novices’ Hurdle in HENRI THE SECOND and he did so in good style to be fair to him. He’s a half brother to Enrilo who also landed this race which is worth mentioning because comparisons may be mentioned going forward but Enrilo was very much a law unto himself, so I’d hope Henri The Second has his own ideas on racing. His previous conqueror CHIANTI CLASSICO didn’t run in this race despite holding an entry, but he did win himself on Thursday in good style and the pair could be set to clash in The Challow at Newbury although plans are yet to be confirmed.
Saturday was a mega day for racing and there were so many great performances that you’ll have to sit tight to ensure I give them all the mention they deserve. MINELLA CROONER got his head in front narrowly. I like this horse a lot, but he’s a rascal so whether he ends up in a NH Chase, a Brown Advisory or an Ultima remains to be seen. On the same card FACILE VEGA had a jog round and was never doing anything other than that. He’s obviously a very serious talent and couldn’t do more than he did but for him to shorten into 5/4 for The Supreme off the back of it is ridiculous. The Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Christmas could be his next assignment but, in any case, he’ll be in a Grade 1 next time out where hopefully we’ll get some greater perspective to him. I’m not knocking the horse; I just think the price is absurd this far out and it’s the curtain raiser which is known to have all sorts of promotions available nearer time or on the day.
At Aintree NOBLE YEATS picked up the Many Clouds Chase and quickened like a sprinter in the last furlong to give DASHEL DRASER a 3 and a quarter length beating. AHOY SENOR didn’t jump well again and had to settle for third a further neck behind. The excitement for him as a Gold Cup horse is a little extreme, especially now he’s top priced 12/1 for the Blue Riband event. You’ll have seen the mention from Ruby Walsh in the week when he was a 66/1 poke, but I’d read more into that comment to suggest he had reason to believe he was going to run a big race in The Many Clouds, which the market would also agree on.
Sandown saw an unbelievable effort from EDWARDSTONE in The Tingle Creek who looks to have very strong chance of landing the Champion Chase in March. For all I’ve knocked him as a Novice, to do that first time up in Open company was nothing short of ridiculous so his top price of 7/2 looks fair to say the least. Another striking 2m chase effort came from JONBON in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase where he looked much more accomplished over his fences, and you’d struggle to believe he was only a Novice in doing so. He quickened away from BOOTHILL nicely from the second last but if I’m to be critical I’d say I was a little disappointed that he needed to be asked to go clear and potentially a horse with a bit more class and more guts in a finish might be able to able to steal a few lengths off him before he winds himself up. That might have been the case in his Aintree victory over EL FABIOLO so I do think something is going to take him on in an Arkle, so he’s not as bombproof to me as the market would suggest at 7/4. However, to contradict that slightly, we’ve not seen anything yet that would be capable of doing that to him so it’s plausible he’s not going to have anyone else to worry about in which case the 7/4 will look huge with hindsight.
Sunday was a day of bubbles being potentially burst as we saw not one winning favourite on the entire card. LOSSIEMOUTH was very impressive in the Juvenile hurdle and Patrick Mullins has suggested that they certainly don’t have anything better in their yard than her so given the fact she was already a single figure favourite before Sunday it’s no real surprise she’s now a general 3/1 chance. I would say that she’ll improve from that run, but I would also add that ZARAK THE BRAVE probably isn’t the best yardstick given he wasn’t expected to do what he did first time up and they couldn’t have jumped the last flight any more differently from each other so I’m not 100% sold on her just yet.
MARINE NATIONALE proved me wrong when winning the Royal Bond and he’s going to be Supreme bound according to Owner Trainer Barry Connell but I don’t think CHAMP KIELY showed his best effort and I’m not sure it would have Facile Vega worried. Again, we’ll find out more next time out where hopefully we see the pair face off.
MIGHTY POTTER took the Drinmore where THREE STRIPE LIFE made an error early on causing his saddle to slip and leaving Davy unable to recover. BANBRIDGE probably showed he’s not a Grade 1 horse as a well beaten third and I’m sure fans of GAILLARD DU MESNIL as a NH Chase prospect would be thrilled with his effort. But back to the winner and he was impressive and flung himself to the head of the Turners market where he is a top price of 5/1 which looks about right at things stand.
Probably the biggest shock was in the Hatton’s Grace where HONEYSUCKLE finished third and ended her unbeaten run. She ran to a RPR of 158 which was just 1 point shorter than her season ending RPR of 159. The last two seasons she’s run 5 points lower on her seasonal reappearance (160 last year and 152 the year prior) so I wouldn’t say she’s finished by any means and the two in front of her both tend to run very well fresh. Of course, it was unexpected, but she’s never looked unbeatable, and she’s now got the chance for redemption at least over in Ireland before a tilt at a third Champion Hurdle in March which surely, she’s earned if she can get back to winning ways next time out. Winner TEAHUPOO will be Stayers Hurdle bound and looks a serious player in a ropey enough looking renewal so the 12/1 looks generous at first glance but he really does look slow ground dependant and I’ve already touched on his freshness.
Finally, we saw two nice types in the bumper, but it was probably CHAPEAU DE SOLEIL who drew more attention when seemingly leaving himself too much to do. I’d like to see him run again before any real judgement, and I know Ferny Hollow was beaten in this race too, but I don’t know that it was attitude that cost him the race like Ferny, I think it was ability that cost him.
Andrew Mount’s Eyecatchers – Tuesday, 6th December
GG tipster Andrew Mount reveals his list of eyecatchers from the past week’s action Find out which runners he wants to keep onside below, alongside bet365‘s new customer offer of £50 in Free Bets when you deposit and bet £10. CHARM OFFENSIVE (won, 2m4f handicap hurdle, Ayr, Tuesday, November 29th) Nick Alexander’s CHARM OFFENSIVE stuck…
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