Cheltenham ante-post tipster Dave Young (A.K.A Cheltmental) is on hand to talk us through his thoughts following the weekends superb action at the Dublin Racing Festival. He discusses some of the key horses who could be set to line up at the Festival, and which races they could/should be aiming for!
Dave has been involved in Antepost betting and the Cheltenham Festival for almost 20 years and he’s managed to make a good few quid from it. With this column, you’ll be able to have a fly on the wall experience as to what he’s looking forward to each week and how he views what’s happened after the events.
Alongside his thoughts on the racing, Dave will be putting up some suggested bets where he see’s appropriate.
GG ANTE-POST BOOK:
For the purposes of this column everything will be put up to a 1pt win stake. I typically do not stake EW for long term Antepost bets as I would prefer to put myself in the position to have multiple horses running for me, where I see fit.
I’m taking a bit of a punt with this runner because she’s not certain to head to Cheltenham however we’ve reached the point in the season where plenty of NRNB concessions are available so that’s my recommendation here. FUN FUN FUN is 6/1 NRNB (and best odds guaranteed) with Bet365 and I think she’s as good a bumper horse as I’ve seen this season. Willie Mullins has been quoted saying:
“I know the prep she had – I didn’t think she’d be fit enough to do it. Patrick was scrubbing her along and she blew up, but she just got her second wind and took off again as if she just jumped in. The depth of that bumper and Patrick went by as if he just jumped in. That’s a huge performance.”
Now the owners have Its For Me as the favourite right now, and Fun Fun Fun being a mare means they have options for her at Aintree and Punchestown, but they’ve not been afraid of runner horses against each other in the past which we saw this weekend with Blue Lord and Sceau Royal and even in this bumper, they had the first two home. At Cheltenham we saw Peace & Co and Top Notch split by a neck in The Triumph so for me, they’ll run both here and I think with her 7lb mares allowance she’ll be very hard to beat. Patrick bred and owned her too, so there’s potential that he might just want to take the ride in March, which means you could see her and the current favourite flip-flop in the market, so with the NRNB concession being 2 points short of the ante-post proper top price she’s a no brainer and I think she’s a good bet too.
The second suggested bet this week comes from a horse you’ll have seen mentioned numerous times and it’s MINELLA CROONER for the NH Chase at 16/1 NRNB with Bet365 (so BOG too). This horse is one I’ve talked about before being a little idle and a bit of a boat. He’s running tomorrow over 2m 7.5f which will qualify him for the Festival providing he finished top 4 but he’s a 4/6 poke. He’s also in the Ten Up Novices Chase on Sunday which has been a pointer for the NH Chase in years gone by so should the unexpected happened and he fails to complete, he could be seen again to ensure he gets in providing all is well. Gordon ran Chemical Energy the other day and that was a little curious as he was due to be seen next in March. He ran OK but I think that Gordon doesn’t have a number one just yet and Minella Crooner will be well fancied when he lines up so 16/1 with the NRNB concession is a very exciting price.
7th February
FUN FUN FUN – CHAMPION BUMPER – 8/1 BetUK but recommend 6/1 Bet365 NRNB
MINELLA CROONER – NATIONAL HUNT CHASE – 20/1 BetUK but recommend 16/1 Bet365 NRNB
25th January
ECHOES IN RAIN – MARES HURDLE – 10/1
PAISLEY PARK – STAYERS HURDLE – 8/1
10th January
4th January
Fakir D’Oudairies – Ryanair Chase @ 10/1 – NRNB with William Hill
20th December
Dawn Rising – Albert Bartlett Hurdle @ 25/1
7th December
THE STORYTELLER – Hunters Chase @ 9/1
HARMONYA MAKER – Mares Novices’ Hurdle @ 20/1
22nd November
PROSCHEMA – Stayers Hurdle @ 25/1
16th November
MONMIRAL – Arkle Novices Chase @ 33/1
BLUE LORD – Ryanair Chase @ 33/1
Dublin Racing Festival Review
Another great weekend of racing was seen at the 2023 Dublin Racing Festival despite the general consensus that it left us with more questions than answers. I’m going to run through most of the results with a view to Cheltenham and see just how many questions has arisen, and whether they can in fact be answered.
Willie Mullins
I’m going to start by looking at Willie Mullins in isolation and purely from a numbers perspective. Firstly he’s been top trainer at Cheltenham for the last 4 festivals and secondly he had an abundance of runners of the weekend, plenty who were sent off as favourite. In fact he ran 45 horses this year with 10 of those sent off as favourite. He managed 8 winners across the two days with half of those winning as favourite.
In terms of winners, he had his second best Dublin Racing Festival for total winners but he equalled last seasons strike rate at 18%. His favourites performed in line with the DRF as a whole (6 winners from 15 – 40%) although every year bar 2020 he actually outperformed the general favourites with his own.
For Cheltenham Festival potential winners who ran at the DRF he historically hits between 4% – 9.5% so I’d forecast on this season he’d had 2-4 Cheltenham winners from his DRF squad. When I look at potential Cheltenham winners based on his strike rate at DRF then I’d forecast between 33% – 57% which means 3 or 4 winners will come from those who ran this weekend. To look directly at those who won at The DRF and who could go on to win at Cheltenham I would suggest that 2 or 3 are forecast to double up.
I’ve listed below a table for a year on year comparison to display his strike rate for all runners and a table for his favourites only:
DRF Racing In Review
Novice Hurdlers
GOOD LAND took the curtain raiser in nice enough style but the front 5 were split by less than 5 lengths and all were ridden to suggest everything was on the line. More to take from this would be that GRANGECLARE WEST, QUAIS DE PARIS & WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT are not going to be landing any spring Grade 1’s, although handicaps wouldn’t be out of the question. In saying that; Good Land was given a revised official rating in Ireland of 141, ABSOLUTE NOTIONS given 138 and SANDOR CLEGANE 136. These are all ratings which would suggest they’re not Grade 1 novices so I’d still be of the thought that we’re not going to see an Albert Bartlett or Ballymore winner from this race, but those lower ratings might just prove fruitful for a couple of these in handicaps by the end of this season.
Sunday saw FACILE VEGA well and truly trounced which drew comments from Willie Mullins about the way he was ridden suggesting he was ridden like a machine and not a racehorse. A friend of mine has highlighted that Willie does seem awfully protective of this horse given he’s been bullish enough to state he’s their best novice hurdler from a long way out (something he’s often not so keen to publicly declare) and I wonder if the romance of the story, Quevega’s baby, he touted him before he was named to be special etc is clouding his judgement. I’m not here to question the master that is Willie Mullins, although it will be interesting to see how a few of these losers fare at Cheltenham given he’s complemented Energumene in defeat and suggested that tactically (more towards jockey error) has cost both Facile Vega & LOSSIEMOUTH. This potentially puts the 2m Novice Grade 1 form into dispute and you’d imagine the first 3 home would all benefit from a step up in trip going forward. It’s going to be hard to trust that Paul Townend, a very experienced jockey, really did just go out too fast on Facile Vega as opposed to it being a publication of the horses true ability. Who’s to say that if he’d have gone slower he still would have won? It’s an impossible conundrum to solve and we’re not going to learn anything more from now until the race has been run.
While we’re on the 2 to 2.5 mile novice hurdlers I’ll mention GAELIC WARRIOR briefly, who was backed like he couldn’t be beaten and won like he still might have more to come. This was a pretty good effort although I’m not sure he’s a Grade 1 horse like most seem to think. He doesn’t seem to respect his hurdles which didn’t do Faugheen any harm but I’m not so sure he’s is as progressive as the change in his Official ratings would suggest, because for me, he was a mid 140’s horse on his debut for Willie back in the Boodles, but he was beaten. He seems to have settled in now and really should be improving as a just turned 5yo but his UK mark will force him into Grade 1’s, which he might not just be ready for. That said, the Supreme has just been blown open, while the Ballymore is looking more and more competitive, but Willie has stated that he’ll go to the Ballymore unless he “get’s away with murder” in which the county hurdle would be his choice. The comments again suggest to me that he believes FACILE VEGA is unbeatable in the Supreme and I’m starting to think who am I to question such bullishness from the maestro.
Back to Saturday where I’ve already mentioned LOSSIEMOUTH who was caught in a pocket, taken back a good few lengths then ultimately beaten only a couple of lengths by her stable-mate GALA MARCEAU. Everyone could see it wasn’t helpful what happened to her, although I do think the eventual winner is a pretty good one herself. That probably means that Lossiemouth could come out of the race with enhanced credentials considering how much distance she put between herself and those in behind, but I do still wonder if she really was as unbeatable as she’s been touted as then should she have actually reeled the winner in. Personally I think Paul did what he should in this race by riding her to win. Yes, she didn’t find as much as he was possibly hoping, but I don’t believe if she’s beaten in March it’s the after effects of this ride. I’ve thought she was good but beatable before The DRF and that opinion has stayed the same. Gala Marceau however, has gone up in my books and appears to be on an upward curve, and arguably quite a steep one.
Novice Chasers
EL FABIOLO was ultra-impressive in the Irish Arkle and in hindsight he was a massive price for that race at around 13/2 when he was about the same price Ante-Post for the Arkle proper and there was no JONBON to contend with. He jumped well and showed that he is an improved horse from last season so I think he can serve it up to Jonbon which sets up a really exciting clash in March. BANBRIDGE ran on well to take second place and he’ll now head to The Turners which is where APPRECIATE IT may well end up too, although based on Saturdays effort, he wouldn’t be winning a Grade 1 again any time soon. DYSART DYNAMO had even less in the finish in him which makes me believe that he doesn’t have it in him to strike at the top level, especially when he’s actually in a race for the latter stages. Not such good news for the Lucky 15 with Appreciate It a probably non runner to start things off but we did see one of the 4 confirm he’s going to be very hard to beat.
MIGHTY POTTER quickened clear in The Flogas and stamped himself as clearly the best middle distance chaser on either side of the Irish Sea. He could and would stay 3 miles but Gordon Elliott has confirmed it’ll be The Turners for him so the 7/2 about him is long gone and I really do think he’s one of the bankers of the week (just in front of DELTA WORK). GAILLARD DU MESNIL showed he a good horse without being great, so I’d think the NH Chase would still be his most likely Festival target as an RSA winner would have been going close in here. JAMES DU BERLAIS possibly suffered from a little bounce after his impressive win on New Years day which came after a 612 day absence, so I wouldn’t write him off just yet but he’s be more of interest up in trip anyway, so Mighty Potter wins the lot.
The Seasoned Horses
On Saturday GALOPIN DES CHAMPS won nicely and STATTLER did himself no harm with a resilient finishing effort after being ridden fairly close to the pace. He’s answered enough questions to suggest he can run well in a Gold Cup but Galopin Des Champs does look hard to peg back although he’s still a really short price for a race which is never a walkover. Still he’s improving all the time and has shown that he can go quick for a longer time than most, so roll on the Blue Ribband event in March because I can’t wait to watch it all unfold.
Sunday we saw BLUE LORD turned over at long odds-on which wouldn’t typically be ideal for an Ante-Post suggestion but seeing as we’ve got him for the Ryanair, it probably worked out quite well for us. I questioned the level of his form before this race because while he was emphatic the last day he beat a Chacun Pour Soi who now appears to be a shadow of his former self and Captain Guinness wouldn’t be the strongest Grade 1 standard yardstick. GENTLEMAN DE MEE was a potential Champion Chaser in waiting after his victory over EDWARDSTONE at Aintree so while he’s inconsistent, he clearly has a big engine in there but does need to get things his own way out in front really and he can throw in a bad jump so he’d not always guaranteed to get that.
STATE MAN was really good in the Irish Champion Hurdle and certainly improved again from his last run over Christmas. Clearly CONSTITUTION HILL will be a very tough nut to crack but he too possesses ‘the button’ and when he’s asked for an effort he certainly responds. Trusting a former juvenile in open company and a potentially regressive mare as the form up holders isn’t the most comfortable of feelings though, however he’s beaten everything that could beat the best of the rest in England so it’s him vs Constitution Hill in March and it’s a clash I cannot wait to see!