No bets this week as the racing has calmed down somewhat since the turn of the year but it will soon be ramping up again and so will my suggestions. The weekends cards look to be in some doubt so I won’t spend time looking into those but instead I’ll crack on with my A-Z for the seasoned chasers which brings this mini series up to part 3 of 4 with novice hurdlers and chasers available to read below:
GG Cheltenham Ante-Post Book – 4th January
Cheltenham ante-post tipster Dave Young (A.K.A Cheltmental) is on hand to give us his A-Z of the Novice Hurdler division. He discusses some of the key horses who could be set to line up at the Festival, and which races they could/should be aiming for! Dave has been involved in Antepost betting and the Cheltenham…
Wed 04 Jan 2023
GG ANTE-POST BOOK:
For the purposes of this column everything will be put up to a 1pt win stake. I typically do not stake EW for long term Antepost bets as I would prefer to put myself in the position to have multiple horses running for me, where I see fit.
4th January
Fakir D’Oudairies – Ryanair Chase @ 10/1 – NRNB with William Hill
20th December
Dawn Rising – Albert Bartlett Hurdle @ 25/1
7th December
THE STORYTELLER – Hunters Chase @ 9/1
HARMONYA MAKER – Mares Novices’ Hurdle @ 20/1
22nd November
PROSCHEMA – Stayers Hurdle @ 25/1
16th November
MONMIRAL – Arkle Novices Chase @ 33/1
BLUE LORD – Ryanair Chase @ 33/1
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Seasoned Chasers A-Z
A PLUS TARD
Wide margin and ready winner of The Gold Cup last season and he’ll be heading straight to Cheltenham now. Bit of a concern that he’s only raced once since that victory last March and he pulled up in that race so there’s a lot to be taken on trust if you’re thinking of backing him to retain his crown. Henry does seem to have a bit of a poor recent record with horses travelling to the UK for these one off Grade 1’s so if there is anything in that it would temper enthusiasm even more.
AHOY SENOR
You’ll think I’m mad by the end of the paragraph but AHOY SENOR hasn’t quite been the same horse as he was last season. He’s posted a 135 and a 143 RPR this term which are miles off the level you need to be to even run in a Gold Cup let alone be competitive. It was split by a 167 figure at Aintree where he made a howler at the first but that run at least gave some hope that he’s not regressed as much as those other two runs would suggest. His run at Kempton in the King George was a little bit of an afterthought and it was owners and the assistant trainer who wanted him to run there as opposed to his trainer Lucinda Russell. However, her comments post-race were quite striking in that she was very pleased with his performance. I thought he jumped as well as I’d seen him, but while the ground might have been soft enough and the track sharper than he’d prefer, I was disappointed in his finishing effort. Those comments though have dangled a last thread of hope on the horse and coupled with his effort in the Brown Advisory last year, where I thought he could have jumped better and the ground was against him, means 66/1 about him could be worth toying with
ALLAHO
Hasn’t been seen this season but the vibes are suggesting he’s going to run at Cheltenham and it’ll be an attempt at a third Ryanair for which he’s a short priced favourite already. Clearly very impressive in the last two renewals of that race but form figures from a break of triple figure days reads 4261 so he might not just be as bullet proof as his price would lead you to believe. Also on those runs after a break, his RPR next time out was significantly higher (+29, +18, +20, +10) however he is officially rated 177 and run even 10lbs below his best might still be enough. I think there are better even money chances, and the bookies will probably want to take him on in boosts or specials nearer The Festival so those with him already backed shouldn’t be overly worried, because he is the stand out horse, but those who are thinking about him now should definitely wait until race week.
BLUE LORD
Officially rated 167 and he’s a horse I put up earlier this season at 33/1 for The Ryanair for which he’s now a 6/1 chance. He is the same price though for the Champion Chase after his latest win which came at 2m in beating CAPTAIN GUINESS by 11 lengths. That was a really good effort, but stable mate CHACUN POUR SOI made a big mistake at a crucial part of the race however the gut feeling is that BLUE LORD would have still won. We’ll see how he goes at The Dublin Racing Festival where his owners are looking to also run SCEAU ROYAL, who wouldn’t be a Champion Chaser in waiting but could there be something in that to suggest they are still thinking Ryanair with BLUE LORD?
BRAVEMANSGAME
This horse is a very good one. Unfortunate last year with Cheltenham and the going which I do think was a lose lose situation for connections. They chose not to run, and I think that might have been the right decision because I was looking to place lay him on account of the ground and the test of stamina that would have been presented. However, if he’s to be considered for a Gold Cup then he has to stay well and for me, I’m not sure he does. His King George win was a decent one and really he went off a big price considering he was 6/1 at his peak in the ante-post market for the race. To pick holes I would say that Harry Cobden didn’t give him the best chance by riding him wider on the track and allowing L’HOMME PRESSE to jump into his ground on occasions, so while that could be seen as a positive given how far he won by, can you really trust that he wasn’t given an optimum ride and still won by such a wide margin? The fact is, L’HOMME PRESSE probably wasn’t sound throughout the race and misses Cheltenham now. He also jumped markedly right throughout. HITMAN bled, ENVOI was another Henry horse over in the UK who underwhelmed and while AHOY SENOR ran well to my eye, this was an afterthought and not his ideal conditions. So I’d not downgrade his King George victory, I just wouldn’t be getting carried away with it, and for me he’s not a Gold Cup winner in waiting and hasn’t yet taken on the top open chasers.
CHACUN POUR SOI
Holds entries over 2, 2 and a half and 3 miles in the next month so it looks like they’re going to go up in trip with him, he even holds a Stayers Hurdle entry. I really like this horse, but he is on the way down now and I wouldn’t fancy him around Cheltenham to show his best, which he’ll need to do now if he’s to pick up even a weak Grade 1.
CONFLATED
All roads lead to the Gold Cup where he probably should have run last season but that potentially could have come a year too soon anyway and A PLUS TARD was unbeatable in hindsight so this could pay dividends for connections. Really good run at Christmas although the withdrawal of A PLUS TARD took away the real yardstick in the race. I think he goes on any ground and a top price of 14/1 in the Ante-post markets as opposed to the top price 10/1 NRNB looks generous to me.
EDWARDSTONE
I’ve struggled to get EDWARDSTONE on side as a chaser which is a little strange because I loved him as a Novice hurdler, I just think I always had a ceiling on him which wasn’t that of an Open Grade 1 chaser. His tingle creek win was very taking and that was the first time he posted an RPR in excess of 170 so I’d need to see him back that up if I’m to trust he’s worthy of the Official rating of 170 because regardless of how good that win looked, it’s a bit of a reach to really believe he’s a 9lb better horse than last season, especially as he was a second season novice last term and an 8yo at that. Not sure we’ll see the Clarence house this weekend at Ascot with the weather looking cold but there’s a chance the race will be re-scheduled as they did in 2013 & 2017 by moving it to Cheltenham Trails day. That’s already an 8 race card though so we’ll have to wait and see. Ultimately I want to see him take on ENERGUMENE because in my mind the reigning Champion Chaser will eat him up. I am conscious of my bias against EDWARDSTONE though which is why I want to see the clash sooner rather than later.
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ENERGUMENE
Touched on briefly in EDWARDSTONE’S section but hopefully we see the pair face-off before Cheltenham although I’m not sure that Ascot will go ahead this weekend, or if it does whether ENERGUMENE will want to travel to race on quick ground, Alan King pulled EDWARDSTONE in the Shloer because of quick ground too. Back to this lad though, he was a very impressive winner of the Queen Mother but we know that wasn’t the real SHISHKIN so I’d revert back to their clash in the Clarence House the year prior. That was a battle for the ages, but the fact ENERGUMENE came out of that in fine fettle and destroyed his field at Punchestown after The Festival shows that he’s an established Grade 1 two mile Chaser, something which not even EDWARDSTONE can say just yet. Wins the Champion Chase again for me, but I really hope we see him clash with his market rival before Cheltenham, because I’d rather lose his price ante-post and know he’s got his measure than back him now and hope
FAKIR D’OUDARIES
Added to the advised horses when the NRNB markets opened up for The Ryanair and in terms of Cheltenham that’s the only place he could line up, and I think he only does if ALLAHO doesn’t run. Connections were quite vocal last season about picking their races for the horse which worked well as he picked up 2 Grade 1’s which should be the aim again; Ascot then Aintree. He is probably a Grade 1.5 horse in that he’s too good for Grade 2’s but not quite up there with the very best at Grade 1 level. I like him though, he likes Cheltenham but a lot hinges on ALLAHO for me, although connections may not have Cheltenham in mind either way hence the NRNB concession advice
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS
Potentially one of the best horses we’ve seen in a very long time and despite his fall in The Turners last season we all know he won that and won it very well. The knuckling on landing wouldn’t be a worry for me because he jumped very well and if anything looked more assured bar the last at Fairyhouse after. Really good in the John Durkan back in December and I’ve not concerns about his stamina given he was a 3m Grade 1 winner over hurdles as a novice 2 years ago now. Very short price for the Gold Cup, but he’s earned that right and it’s crazy to think he’s only just turned 7 too.
GENTLEMAN DE MEE
Ready winner at Aintree last season when beating EDWARDSTONE and at that point had plenty thinking he was a contender for this seasons Champion Chase. Alas, he was well handled at Sandown and even more so at Leopardstown this Christmas. He’s rated 158 so a little high for a handicap tilt this spring and I would expect him to step up in trip now (has entry in the Dublin Chase over 2m 1f at The Dublin Racing Festival) and well beaten favourite in the 2021 Martin Pipe when he jumped right. Did have a bad unseat at the start of this season though so confidence building may be the key to him and he’s either one for other Spring Festivals (especially if handicapping up in trip) but he may roll into next season with potential and be one of those we never see the best of or that Aintree run turns out to be a rogue line of form.
GREANETEEN
Didn’t race at last seasons Festival and I’m not entirely sure if they’re planning on him going this year but he does have an entry and the race isn’t look that deep so I hope they take their chance. Sandown often cited as his ‘home’ turf but we comfortably beaten by EDWARDSTONE in the Tingle Creek so either that’s a rock solid form boost, or maybe he was not in the same space as his previous season given he won the Haldon this season but didn’t the term before. Was only 2 lengths of PUT THE KETTLE ON when she won her Champion Chase which would look to be one of the weakest renewals in recent years given CHACUN didn’t seem to stay up the hill. Thumped ALTIOT after that and I do wonder now he’s been beaten at Sandown if they will keep him fresh for Cheltenham instead of looking to take in the Game Spirit en route. Wouldn’t say he’s in with a winning chance come March but I’d like to see him line up there fresh all the same.
MINELLA INDO
Comes alive at The Festival with 2 wins and 2 seconds but did look like he was beatable in this Gold Cup division with how he paddled up the hill in his winning year and even more so last season. But, he will have more behind than in front of him it’s just a big grey area around who will ride him, given Robbie Power has retired and Jack Kennedy is side-lined although would be on CONFLATED you would imagine. He’ll be popular in the previews from an EW or place perspective.
NOBLE YEATS
Unable to run at Lingfield this weekend due to a vaccination issue but will run in The Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham on Trials day now. Best form clearly comes at Aintree and I was pretty disappointed in his run in The Ultima last season. I don’t think the course is his bag and I’m not sold on that quick sprint finish at Aintree in the Many Clouds Chase because he looked like he’d just been chucked in at the final flight but ultimately he beat DASHEL DRASHER who is a non-stayer at 3 miles and as much as I like AHOY SENOR, he’s not been at his best this season to trust as a yardstick either. I think him being single figures for the Gold Cup is ridiculously short and he might just go off second favourite at this rate so even if there was no GALOPIN DES CHAMPS, should he really be the most likely winner, not for me.
NUBE NEGRA
Surprising that he didn’t win The Desert Orchid at Kempton over Christmas given EDWARDSTONE unseated at the first but he’s clearly a much better horse fresh as he’s posted equal or regressive RPRs very often with breaks inside 100 days. His best performance came in defeat in the 2021 Champion Chase which I’ve touched on earlier being a poor renewal but I think he wants quick ground, so should the festival come up Good for any reason (I know they’ll water) it wouldn’t be preferred going for many in here, including EDWARDSTONE. Wouldn’t want to consider him at all ante-post in case they ran in the Game Spirit as I want him here fresh and that quicker ground would also be crucial but could be of interest in special markets such as place only or without come Festival week
PIC D’ORHY
Won comfortably last weekend and I’m not so sure why people worried about the ground when connections have raced him on heavy following a wind op before. Still, while it was a very good run I’m not sure it was quite up the RPR of 168 that he was given but surely they have to try him in the Ryanair given he pulled up at Aintree last season when I fancied him quite a bit in the Manifesto Novices’ Chase
PROTEKTORAT
Dan Skelton would be hoping he can gain more Grade 1 success with this horse who ran well in last years Gold Cup despite a few iffy jumps. Ultra-impressive at Haydock in the Betfair Chase with A PLUS TARD not firing that day but he’s potentially still progressive and that last run was his third RPR in the 170’s from his last 4 starts which only favourite GALOPIN DES CHAMPS and A PLUS TARD can claim if we ignore the latter’s Betfair Chase blank. Has to have a chance, but is it a winning one?
SHISHKIN
A shame to see him so poor in the Tingle Creek was the cries post-race but considering he had such a big issue last spring he ran pretty well for a long part and was kicked pre-race too. No entry in the Champion Chase so it’s likely to be The Ryanair for him but really you’d like to see a win before Cheltenham to trust he’s back to anywhere near his best and the top price without NRNB of 8/1 is barely worth looking at when he’s 6/1 with the money back concession, which in truth looks plenty short anyway if ALLAHO was to run as that wouldn’t scare him away. I’ll be waiting to see him out again, but I think he’s not the lost cause plenty are suggesting and if anyone can get him back we know it’s Nicky Henderson
STATTLER
Paul Townend took some stick for his ride on STATTLER on new years day but that was his first run in Open company and he was taking on a recent Gold Cup winner in MINELLA INDO over a trip that would have been too short so I thought he ran well and was encouraged by how close he finished. His NH Chase form will be crabbed because of those in behind but he finished with loads left in the tank which is why I think he’s a serious contender for the big prize in March. He’s about an 8/1 shot now which I think is about right, but we know he stays, we know he likes Cheltenham and we know he jumps well. If you need anything to enhance your estimations of this horse just watch the last flight to the line in his last two starts and you’ll see all you need too