An outstanding weekend of racing has shaken up the ante-post market for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. After numerous statements were made by the principles, here is how the betting for the race is now shaping up.
Betfair Chase – Saturday, 23rd November
At his happiest hunting ground of Haydock, Royale Pagaille claimed a second successive Betfair Chase in the gamest fashion for Venetia Williams and Charlie Deutsch. He took his record at the track to five wins from six starts, an exceptional strike rate, but odds for him for the Gold Cup are almost non-existent – he will be 11 by March, and despite some consistent form of 656 in the Cheltenham showpiece before missing last season’s renewal, it is unsurprising most bookmakers are uninterested in even laying him at any price.
The significant performance of the race from a Gold Cup perspective came from Grey Dawning though. Stepping into open company, the gallant grey travelled like the winner, only to hit the last and be overhauled by the winner. Conditions were particularly testing, but he was ten lengths clear of the rest, so this did not look a case of a lack of willpower or stamina.
The seven-year-old is still comfortably the shortest price of any likely British contender for the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup. However, despite this respectable effort, SkyBet, Paddy Power and Betfair all eased him from pre-race odds of 10/1 or 12/1 out to 14s. This was then extended to 16/1 after events at Punchestown on Sunday.
Both Capodanno and Ahoy Senor failed to finish having been held up on the ground. Both can now be backed at 100/1, the former having previously only been as big as 40/1, the latter 50/1. Neither of the well-held pair of Gold Tweet or Limerick Lace are priced up, while Bravemansgame is still a 100/1 shot after this third-placed effort, a slight improvement overall on his Charlie Hall form.
John Durkan Chase – Sunday, 24th November
The three favourites for the Cheltenham Gold Cup all reappeared in the 2m4f John Durkan Chase on Sunday and served up a contest for the ages.
Despite drifting from favouritism on the day, Fact To File significantly enhanced his reputation with a determined victory. The second season chaser had been one of the star novice chasers last term, but was uneasy in the betting here having been defeated on his seasonal debut last term. However, he belied those fears by grimly battling to a half-length success over Spillane’s Tower as JP McManus had the one-two.
The winner is now the clear outright favourite for the Gold Cup in March. Best odds of 4/1 have vanished and been replaced by 11/4 with Paddy Power and Betfair, as the seven-year-old appears to be the bright young thing in this division.
In second, Spillane’s Tower, who was not one of the aforementioned three favourites for the Gold Cup, broke into the top trio in the race’s betting. Despite finishing his novice season with two Grade 1 successes, there were doubts about whether his form would live up to the big guns. He put those concerns safely to bed here, and James Joseph Mangan will have been delighted by this near miss; his charge was the joint youngest horse in the race.
Paddy Power and Betfair shortened him dramatically from 33/1 to 8s for the Gold Cup while SkyBet, who were offering much shorter odds about him to begin with, are 10s from 16/1, and now offer the best value about the six-year-old.
The established guard had to settle for third and fourth, with Galopin Des Champs and Fastorslow nevertheless playing their parts in the run-in. The two-time Gold Cup winner may have been deposed as favourite for a third straight success, but though his Punchestown hoodoo continues here, this was perhaps his best ever run at the course, as he was headed only after the last having been part of setting a strong gallop. 7/2 is what he generally trades at, little difference to what he was available at beforehand, as only Fact To File’s shortening has left him in second place for the time being.
It was Fastorslow who was the biggest drifter. The apple of Martin Brassil’s eye was extremely well-backed having beaten Galopin Des Champs on their previous three meetings at the track, but despite being in contention throughout the straight, he could not contend from the last, and was beaten 6½ lengths. His supporters will not have lost too much heart though and it could prove an overreaction by SkyBet to have doubles his price from 7/1 to 14s.
Of the eight who took part, only Journey With Me, who finished sixth here despite some outside interest, cannot be backed anywhere for the Gold Cup. The last of seven finishers, Inothewayurthinkin, is actually available at the shortest price of the remainder; Gavin Cromwell’s charge was unfancied on his return here over a trip shorter than ideal but was still pushed out to 20/1 from a high of 16s beforehand after failing to land a blow.
Grangeclare West suffered from setting a decent gallop on his first start for 11 months here despite being another runner who was supported on the day. His price doubled from 33/1 to 66/1 for the Gold Cup after Patrick Mullins pulled him up, and he is now a bigger price than stablemate Minella Cocooner, who ran a race full of promise in fifth over a distance well short of his ideal – the eight-year-old won the 3m5f bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in April and was fifth here. Betfair and Paddy Power introduced him at 50/1 to add Cheltenham’s Gold Cup to his Sandown prize.
Gold Cup Market Moves
Fact To File ↑ 11/4 from 4/1
Spillane’s Tower ↑ 10/1 from 33/1
Galopin Des Champs → 7/2
Minella Cocooner → 50/1 (New Entry)
Bravemansgame → 100/1
Fastorslow ↓ 14/1 from 7/1
Grey Dawning ↓ 16/1 from 12/1
Inothewayurthinkin ↓ 20/1 from 16/1
Grangeclare West ↓ 66/1 from 33/1
Capodanno ↓ 100/1 from 40/1
Ahoy Senor ↓ 100/1 from 50/1
Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.