GG Editor Rob Plumbridge runs you through his selections for all 9 live ITV Races on Saturday – taking in Cheltenham, Newbury and Doncaster.
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1.50 Newbury
Talk about a tough start! Very difficult to know where to begin here with lots of unexposed types racing on softer ground at the end of the season. Favourites struggle in this and due to the nature of the race I’m inclined to pick something at bigger odds for a small each-way play.
There are plenty of last time out winners in here, but the one stepping up markedly in class is ANCESTRAL LAND who landed a Class 5 on his 2nd start comfortably by 3 lengths. That was on proper soft ground at Chepstow which takes some getting through, and I thought he was a really interesting play from a yard that does well with their juveniles. Tom Marquand is an eye-catching booking for Clive Cox and I’m hoping he’s improved lots in his break.
2.05 Cheltenham
Tough to look past the charms of THE HOLLOW GINGE here given how well he goes fresh. Last season he was just touched off here – and he was 10lbs higher. This is now his lowest ever rating over the larger obstacles. Everything seems in his favour on Saturday.
The case for him is an obvious, but compelling one.
2.25 Newbury
Initially I was keen to try and get HAMISH beat in this given his odds. However, it’s very hard to make a case with credible rivals few and far between. It’s hard to knock Hamish’s season, with two wins to his name including a fine performance in the Cumberland Lodge Stakes last time where he was a comfortable winner.
Arguably more impressive was his 3/4 length 2nd to the all-conquering stayer Kyprios in the Irish St Leger. Lone Eagle looks like a shadow of the horse from last season, and the others have a bit to find with the selection who really should just go and win this.
2.40 Cheltenham
Another short priced favourite that should have no trouble winning. PIED PIPER is quite simply the best horse in this line-up. He was touched off by Knight Salute at Aintree, but that race was very much an after thought that suited Knight Salute a lot more.
Pied Piper can show his class today and I’m expecting a big margin victory here. This track is much more suitable and it’s very difficult to see past him unless the others have significantly improved over the winter.
3.00 Doncaster
It would be disappointing if Aesop’s Fables didn’t win this for connections. He’s now significantly down in grade to Listed level. He has come up short in Group 1 company the last twice.
However, he is short enough for this at 11/10 and I can’t get over his disappointing performance in Ireland which according to connections was largely due to the Soft ground. It’s going to be similar tomorrow and I’ll be taking him on with his rapidly-improving stablemate HISPANIC who won his maiden recently by 8 lengths on soft. He’s around 9/2 and will do for me against the favourite.
3.15 Cheltenham
CLEAR THE RUNWAY has a tremendous record over fences and will be a warm order here. He is now 5/7 over the larger obstacles and comes here with runs under his belt so promises to be in good shape.
He should be able to take this step up in class, and is in the form of his life. The Widdow Maker can follow him home.
3.35 Doncaster
I backed EPICTETUS on his last run where he ran a blinder to just be beaten by Silver Knott on the Rowley Mile. He’s a horse going very much the right way and can improve once more to take this Group 1.
He sees out the mile very well and I think inexperience cost him in his last race where he edged left at a crucial time. He’s very well thought of in the yard and can get the better of Auguste Rodin who has won his last two, but the form of that is somewhat questionable.
3.50 Cheltenham
A really open contest with many looking to run well and gain an entry into the corresponding race at the Festival. it’s hard to know which will be tuned up 100% looking to win rather than qualify. However, AN TALLIUR is likely one of those.
He rose through the ranks last season and he could do the same this year as he matures. Crucially in the context of this race he goes brilliantly when fresh. He’s 2/2 when returning from a break of over 100 days, and I can see him doing so again.
4.10 Doncaster
NOMADIC EMPIRE continues to go down in the weights and is now 9lbs below his last winning mark. He ran a shocker last time at York, but my impression of him is that he just doesn’t like that track – as many horses don’t. He’s run a few bad races there and is much more suited a track like Haydock or Doncaster.
He won’t mind cut in the ground here and I’m convinced he has a race like this in him this season. He’s been expensive to follow but we can claw some back here.
Also COPPER KNIGHT can roll back the years despite his recent poor form. He was joint first in a dead heat here last year and will relish some soft ground. Tim Easterby has his string in great form right now and he’s a good play at 20/1 or thereabouts.