The first weekend of June each year can only mean one thing for fans of horse racing- It’s time for the Oaks and the Derby at Epsom Downs and courtesy of Bet 365, GG.COM will be on course to report live on Oaks day tomorrow. Both sides of the Irish Sea are strongly represented in the feature races and two days of top action beckon.
Last year Dancing Rain took the Investec Oaks for William Haggas at odds of 20/1 with big-race specialist Johnny Murtagh providing her with a memorable front running ride. This year Haggas is represented by a more obvious candidate in the shape of Vow, who boasts a middle distance pedigree you’d readily associate with an Epsom Classic hope. Vow made her racecourse debut at Newbury back in April and despite being green, she won in the style of a classy prospect. Earlier this month she reappeared in the Lingfield Oaks trial and again showed signs of inexperience but once she straightened up, her formidable stride took her clear of her nearest rival Colima, who stayed on in eye-catching fashion to follow her home.
Colima has been the subject of market support from each way thieves who believe she has the scope to improve significantly from her last run, but she will do well to reverse form with Vow, who appeared to be in a different league. Both of these fillies have to step right up to figure here though and the 9/2 about Vow makes limited appeal because her running style thus far suggests she will take a while yet to learn her trade and reach her full potential. Epsom is a demanding course and a more obviously well balanced filly is what we’re looking for at this stage.
Maybe and The Fugue are fighting it out for favouritism at the market head, but Bet 365 have Aiden O’Brien’s filly in at 5/2, with recent Musidora Stakes winner The Fugue available to back at 11/4. Maybe sets the benchmark on two year old form despite losing her unbeaten record when third behind stablemate Homecoming Queen in the 1000 Guineas. The form of that race has since taken a knock last weekend at the Curragh and is open to suggestion now provided different conditions for some of the also rans, which include Maybe and The Fugue, who ran with promise back in fourth place that day.
Maybe must have a big chance of staying the Oaks trip. She is sired by Galileo and out of a Danehill mare that is related to Derby winner Dr Devious and last year’s Oaks winner Dancing Rain. Her style of running is that of a relentless galloper, rather than a horse blessed with bags of speed. The Fugue is another with plenty of stamina in her pedigree. She is a half-sister to a filly who won over two miles and her dam was sired by Sadlers Wells and was second in the Ribblesdale Stakes. She created a big impression when winning her trial rather easily with Twirl well beaten in second. There is an obscure statistic which puts a doubt over her chance though. In the last 16 years, out of the 194 horses drawn in stalls one and two in double figure fields over 1m4f, only 4 have managed to win, little over a 2% record. The SP’s say there should have been around 17 winners from 194, so the fact that there were only four makes the task of The Fugue, perhaps, a little more difficult. Both of these fillies command upmost respect, but there must be a bit of each way value available elsewhere.
Kissed is a 6/1 chance with our race-day sponsors Bet365 and this daughter of Galileo was a 900,000Gns yearling and could be a bit special. She is a three parts sister to last year’s Derby hero Pour Moi out of a Darshaan mare and is, on paper, the most likely of the O’Brien sextet to appreciate this trip. Her maiden win was little above average but left the impression that she could make the grade. What sealed the deal for a tilt at Epsom was her impressive seasonal reappearance at Navan in the Listed Salsabil Stakes over 1m2f, where she made every post a winning one to score by over eight lengths, looking better and better the further she went. Her inexperience is a worry tomorrow, but under Ryan Moore she looks a bit of each way value to continue her winning streak on the big stage.
The sole Godolphin representative Kailani has been supplemented for this and is worth a mention following an easy Listed win last time out which prompted connections to give her a shot here. It had the look of a tight affair before the race but the soft ground perhaps took the shine off the form and she has to prove she can uphold it now against superior opposition and under vastly different conditions.
Hughie Morrison is double-handed with Shirocco Star and Coquet and the latter is an interesting contender at the prices. This improving daughter of Sir Percy is out of a Nashwan mare and is a half-sister to smart middle distance winner Midnight Oil. She won her maiden at Wolverhampton last season, beating a couple of colts from Godolphin under a tender ride. Next time up at Newmarket she improved again to defeat higher rated rivals in a Listed event over a mile, where she had Nell Gwyn winner Esentepe well held back in third.
At Goodwood seven days ago, Coquet won the Height of Fashion stakes in decent style. She travelled like much the best filly in the race and perhaps was brought to the front a little too soon by Rob Havlin and the filly was a little lazy. Morrison did state before the race that she may be a little short of work so plenty improvement can be expected from this likeable galloper. Her handler also said, following her Newmarket win last season, that she would bypass the 1000 Guineas and be trained specifically for the Oaks. Snow Fairy and Love Divine won this race at Goodwood on route to Epsom and Coquet looks cracking each way value at 25/1 with Bet 365 to follow suit for her shrewd trainer. Much of the value has been squeezed out of the market following all the key trial races and this filly is perhaps the one that has gone relatively unnoticed by the layers.
It promises to be a great renewal and GG.COM will be at Epsom to report any findings live from the track tomorrow. Let’s hope Kissed and Coquet can run good races for us.
On Saturday, Camelot will attempt to fend off eight rivals in search of his fourth consecutive win and indeed his second Classic victory. Everything about this colt screams Epsom and Derby at you. At Newmarket he had to do it the hard way for young Joseph O’Brien but he found plenty of gears when they were required to put the race to bed in the final furlong. Stepping up to this trip, it would be no surprise if we witnessed one of the great Derby performances. It certainly has the feel of one of those years where there could be a stand-out champion in the division and Camelot has done nothing thus far to suggest he isn’t capable of scaling those heights. At 8/13 though, he is not an attractive bet for such a competitive race with so many factors to consider.
The best betting option may well be Dante winner Bonfire for an each way bet to nothing at a top price of 9/2 offered by Bet 365. We’re of the opinion that he definitely would have won the Criterium International at Saint-Cloud with a clear passage and the collateral form provided by 2000 Guineas runner up French Fifteen would then suggest that there is very little between Camelot and Andrew Balding’s colt over one mile. He didn’t appear to be stopping over 1m2f last time out and the Dante has shown itself to be a premier trial race for the Derby. It promises to be quite a match up and if Bonfire can hold himself together in the preliminaries he must have a huge chance of landing the World’s most famous flat race. How much these two outstanding colts improve over the Derby trip on Saturday at 4pm will almost undoubtedly prove to be the deciding factor.
Of the outsiders, Mickdaam is a tough sort and could outrun odds of 33/1 for the reunited Richard Fahey and Paul Hanagan duo. Thought Worthy is worthy of a mention as well. A stoutly bred son of Dynaformer he runs for an in-form yard and what he may lack in obvious class, he’ll make up for with stamina and he is another that could pick up any pieces left behind by more fancied runners in the nine runner line-up. He beat Frankel’s brother Noble Mission last time out and has a squeak.
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