There have been many changes to the Grand National over many years, but this renewal will see the field size cut from 40 to 34 which shouldn’t have a huge impact in finding the winner but both Auroras Encore (2013) & Minella Times (2021) were number 35 winners. I’m going to look at the last 10 running’s to hopefully steer us in the right direction for finding the potential 2024 Grand National Winner.
First up I’ve provided a checklist to summarise my findings and with the 11 criteria able to find nine of the last 10 winners having ticked eight or more boxes and six of those nine ticked nine or more. There does seem to be eight stronger trends which have helped find seven of the last 10 providing they tick at least seven of the boxes but all the last 10 ticked at least six.
I appreciate that’s a lot of number to digest, so I’ve used to the checklists to provide shortlists of the remaining runners before final declarations. This has been split into two sections however, due to the fact the max field size is 34, and those lower down the list are unlikely to get in, plus the nature of being a lower rated horse means they’ll tick boxes for handicap wins etc simply because that’s their level. Anyway, let’s crack on.
8-point checklist
- Carrying 11 stone or less (subject to change at final decs)
- Won this season
- At least 3 runs this season
- 10+ career chase runs
- Has won a Chase Handicap
- Ran inside the last 38 days (possibly harsh on Cross Country runners)
- No prior run in Grand National unless they won
- Has raced at Aintree or is Irish-trained
Additional Trends
- Rated 146-150
- Aged 8 or 9
- Won at 3m+
TOP 40 RUNNERS IN THE RACE WHO TICKED 7/8 OR MORE (and 9+/11)
- No. 37 – CHAMBARD (8/8)
- No. 29 – LIMERICK LACE (8/8)
- No. 27 – MAC TOTTIE (8/8)
- No. 38 – KITTYS LIGHT (7/8)
- No. 30 – MEETINGOFTHEWATERS (7/8)
- No. 26 – ADAMANTLY CHOSEN (7/8)
BOTTOM 18 RUNNERS (UNLIKELY TO GET IN) WHO TICKED 7/8 OR MORE (and 9+/11)
- No. 50 – TULLYBEG (8/8)
- No. 57 – WHERE IT ALL BEGAN (7/8)
- No. 56 – TOMMIE BEAU (7/8)
- No. 53 – FAMOUS BRIDGE (7/8)
- No. 47 – ANNUAL INVICTUS (7/8)
General Overview and some substance to the trends highlighted above
- Seven of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or 9, outside of those we had two 11yo winners in 2013 and 2014 and a 7yo winner in 2022. Curiously, each of those three carried 10-10 or less.
- Eight of the last 10 winners carried less than 11 stone with Many Clouds (2015) and Tiger Roll (2019) the exceptions and they were rated 160 and 159 respectively.
- The average OR (Official Rating) of the last 10 winners is 148 but all the last eight winners were rated 146 or higher and six of those eight rated between 146 and 150.
- The market has seen five of the last six winners priced 14/1 or shorter with two favourites and a 10/1 second favourite victorious in the same period. It’s also seen two favourites pulled up in that time.
- Eight of the last 10 winners had won already this season and that’s true of all the last six winners. All 10 had at least three runs under their belt this term and six were last seen running at The Cheltenham Festival, three of those winning. Eight of the last 10 had at least 10 career chase starts but the last two didn’t (7 & 9 respectively).
- Seven of the last 10 had won over at least three miles previously and eight of the last 10 had won a Handicap Chase, six of those eight had won two or three.
- The average number of days since last racing for the last 10 winners is 38 however, eight of the last 10 ran inside 38 days with One For Arthur (2017 – 84 days) and Minella Times (2021 – 62 days) the exceptions.
- Only Tiger Roll (2019) won this having been a runner in a previous Grand National but he was also the reigning champion. six of the last 10 winners had run at Aintree racecourse before in some sphere and the four that hadn’t were all Irish-Trained.
Summary
The nature of some trends in a race of this type are going to limit just how far we can whittle down the field and by taking those who scored 6/8 which would have found every winner in the last 10, we’re still left with 33 of the 58 left in and 20 of the top 40. Being a little more forceful of those trends using those scoring 7/8 or higher (which would have found seven of the last 10 winners) means we reduce the total field to 21 and from the top 40 we’re down to 11 runners.
To pull this even tighter I’ve used those who ticked nine out of the initial 11 trends, which accounts for six of the last 10 winners to bring our shortlist down to just six horses. Although three of the other four did tick eight of the 11 boxes, we’d still be left with 15 runners, which is expected given that connections will target certain types and run their seasons in line with what has worked historically.
CHAMBARD is a 12yo and you’d have to go back to 2004 and Amberleigh House for the last winner that age although that’s the only box of the 11 he doesn’t tick. Currently priced at 100/1 and slower ground about would suit
KITTY’S LIGHT just missed out on trends for not having won this season but did end last term with a win which looks to be part of the reason why he’s been kept out of the limelight to afford an OR which should hopefully see him sneak in, but potentially well treated. At 16/1 the price reflects the profile more than current form but in a Grand National you ideally want some numbers on your side which this lad certainly has
MAC TOTTIE is an 11yo so missed out on the age bracket and although he’s not won at 3m+ he has won at 2m 7 ½f so couldn’t be closer to joining CHAMBARD and KITTYS LIGHT on their scores. The three runners who hadn’t won a race at 3m+ were aged 7, 8 and 9 so while the 100/1 about MAC TOTTIE is attractive should he run, he’s missing the stamina argument and doesn’t have age on his side
The next three are all 7yo’s and the concern with those is that other than NOBLE YEATS two years ago, the last 7yo winner came in 1940. MEETINGOFTHEWATERS was bought by JP for a Grand National and the 14/1 about him is probably short enough. LIMERICK LACE only missed out by age and not having won at 3m+ but she was second to COKO BEACH and staying on at the line so she holds a chance and the 25/1 about her seems fair. ADAMANTLY CHOSEN hasn’t won a Handicap Chase before now and again doesn’t tick the age bucket but he is a 33/1 shot. I suppose my biggest reservation about him is that his Handicap chase form reads terribly.
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