The Flat is back in the UK this weekend, and the first Premier Handicap of the new season is the Lincoln, over the mile trip at Doncaster. Jake Russell (@jakeRuss1000 on Twitter) takes a look at the main protagonists, as well as a few bigger priced runners, before giving his verdict.
It could be the ideal opportunity to take advantage of BetUK‘s new customer offer – where you can get £20 in Free Bets when you place a £10 bet.
Al Mubhir
Currently heading the market, the William Haggas trained horse seems to be all the rage heading into the contest on Saturday, for a trainer who has won this race a joint record 4 times in the past, they will be bidding for the record breaking five wins in the Lincoln.
His career record currently sits at a respectable 2 wins in just 6 career starts, including a cosy 1 length win on Debut at Newmarket back in 2021. He then struggled in some Novice contests after that, getting beat four times in a row.
He was given an opening rating on 96, which did drop down to 90 after a few more runs, before winning a 14-runner field at Haydock in Heavy conditions, where the new softer conditions seemed to have suited him nicely.
He was raised 7lb’s to a new career high mark of 97, so he would have that to overcome, but he looks the type to keep improving with each run, and should we get the softer conditions that are predicted, he could be one to run well for an inform yard (57% win strike rate for the last 14 days, 4 winners in just 7 runners).
Awaal
Another horse in the contest where the softer conditions will suit. He wasn’t seen at all as a two-year-old, and did run in a few races in quite succession last season, racking up some decent form in the process.
A decent 3rd on debut, he then went on to beat the Britannia winner Thesis by a head on his second career start at Lingfield, which is form with some substance behind it. He then ran in another Novice contest to get his Handicap mark, where he came 2nd in a six-runner field, and was given a mark of 93 shortly after. That fairly lenient mark was put to good use where he dotted up in a decent handicap contest at Redcar, beating Spirit Catcher by just under 4 lengths, which was in heavy conditions, very much like Al Mubhir.
He was raised 9lb’s after that performance, to a new rating of 102, which he will run off in the Lincoln. He seems to be coming on with each run, and judging on his last run of the season last year, he could be a black type horse running in a Handicap.
Wanees
Charlie Hills’ son of Le Havre looked a nice type as a two-year-old, winning on two occasions, before going on to contest in Handicaps last season as a 3-year-old. He was a winner on Seasonal debut last year, winning a class 2 Handicap at Sandown, with City Runner a half a length in behind, he looked set to have a decent mark for the Britannia at Royal Ascot, where he ran a decent 6th place out of 30 runners.
He then went on to run a slightly disappointing race at Goodwood where he finished down the field, but he did run far to free that day so that wasn’t ideal. He duly obliged next time out when landing a 12-runner contest at Haydock in September, beating Montassib by just under a length, getting a 3lb rise in the process, to a mark of 96.
He has a decent weight in this, and does seem to go well fresh. If he in race keenness has been rectified, he will be an interesting contender, especially with Jim Crowley booked.
Croupier
One runner on the bigger priced side who looks to have a decent chance is the Simon and Ed Crisford trained Croupier, who has some decent form to his name, with 3 wins in just 9 career starts, and he looked to be improving nicely throughout last season.
He won a decent class 3 1-mile contest at Windsor in September, beating New Pursuit by a head, always holding on nicely heading up to the line, before going on to run well in defeat at Haydock next time out where he finished 5th of 14 runners. He didn’t get a clear passage through that day, which resulted in him only getting the chance to run on in the final furlong, where he was keeping on very nicely all the way to the line given his bad luck in running, he done very well to finish where he did. However, he put that disappointment behind him next time out at Chelmsford, where he won a decent little contest by 2 lengths, with Excel Power in behind.
His career high mark of 96 doesn’t look enough yet to stop him, as he is one who has progressed up the ratings with each run. Harry Burns who rode him to victory at Chelmsford takes the ride for the Lincoln, and at the current price of 25/1 he will run a decent enough race.
Eilean Dubh
One of the more exposed runners in this field, Karl Burke’s colt had a busy time of things last season, but did win some very decent handicap contests for the Skybet Sunday Series.
That Includes a classy performance at York, where he beat Lion Tower by just over 2 lengths. He’s had the pipe opener in the Wolverhampton Lincoln Trial earlier this month, where he was disappointing but looked as if the run was needed. That will set him right for this, and at a bigger price he could run into the frame, especially given how experienced he is in these bigger fields.
BIG-RACE VERDICT
The main three at the top of the market look potentially the most likely to improve past a lot of these and win, with a few of the others looking like handicappers and these potentially black type horses. Given William Haggas’s record in this race, Al Mubhir might be the safer option to side with, but they both have to run up to a career high mark, both of which haven’t ran at it as yet and he is quite a short price for a 22-runner field. The more I look at CROUPIER the more I think he has a decent chance of running well and getting into the frame, so he would be my each way shout for this contest, that is always very, very competitive. Good Luck.
TIP – CROUPIER E/W
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