The last of the Group 1’s for Champions Day is arguably the feature contest of the card, where the worlds best 1m2f horses battle it out for the £737,000 winning prize money on offer. Baaeed headed into the race last season with his unbeaten record on the line, but was unfortunately put in his place by Bay Bridge. Can the Sir Michael Stoute horse be the first one since Cracksman in 2017 and 2018 to land this race in back to back years? It would be some feat if he does so.
GG editor Jake Russell previews this years race, picking out some interesting trends for the race, identifying the key runners and lively outsiders to look out for, before giving his expert verdict on who he expects to win.
Last year’s renewal saw Sir Michael Stoute’s BAY BRIDGE come out on top in a thrilling finish with Adayar (2nd) and My Prospero (3rd) all within half a length of each other. Odds-on favourite Baaeed lost his unbeaten record in the process, where he could only finish fourth:
Key Trends
- 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 4 or older.
- 5 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 6 of the last 12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting.
- 6 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Champion Stakes, 8 of the las 12 winners had their last run within the last 59 days.
- 7 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Ascot, 4 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Ascot.
- 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 10 furlongs, 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 10 furlongs.
- 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 9 previous flat runs, 12 of the last 12 winners had at least 4 previous flat wins, 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 5 previous flat wins.
- 12 of the last 12 winners had a rating of 117+.
- 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 win in a group 1 or 2 race.
- 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 4 runs that season, 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous wins that season.
Key Runners
7. Horizon Dore
(P Cottier/Mickael Barzalona)
Like usual I am not going to sit here and state I am a French racing expert, so it’s hard to gauge where Horizon Dore’s form sits with most of the runners in the field. Being a French raider you would have to take them seriously when running over here in the softer conditions, as he holds some decent form on the not so good underfoot conditions.
He is an improving French 3yo gelding who comfortably justified favouritism in the Group 2 Prix Dollar at Longchamp over 1m2f a few weeks ago, completing a four-timer in the process and taking his overall record to 6 wins in just 8 career runs. The French raider has been improving with each passing run, and has been taking the step up in class in his stride. Therefore he brings quite an attractive profile to this contest, which is his first attempt at Group 1 level.
French raiders haven’t been doing so well since coming over and contesting in our Group 1’s, although he doesn’t fit the usual type, as he is an improving 3yo tackling a Group 1 for the very first time. That might speak for something as connections aren’t messing around pitching him in Group 1 company.
8. King Of Steel
(Roger Varian/Frankie Dettori)
There are a few question marks on whether most of these will handle the expected softer underfoot conditions, however one things for sure and that is the Roger Varian runner will do well if there’s plenty of cut in the ground. He only ran the twice as a 2yo, a winner at Nottingham on debut in quite soft going, he then went on to run in the Group 1 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes at Doncaster which was also quite soft ground.
His seasonal re-appearance as a 3yo was an excellent 2nd in the Derby at Epsom where he pushed Auguste Rodin all the way to the line. Ever since that fantastic effort, there has been quite a hype about the horse, and he duly obliged that by landing the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, producing an excellent performance to win by 3 lengths going away. He got his black type as a 3yo, and ever since he has mixed it up in Group 1 contest. They include a 3rd in the King George at this venue in July, before going on to finish 4th in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown. He may have finished fourth that day, but was only beaten a length staying on well in the closing stages. Leopardstown suited the front runners that day, and the winner Auguste Rodin was given a very good ride from Ryan Moore, so he was not for catching.
Frankie Dettori rides him this weekend in his last ever Champion Stakes, so you bet there will be quite a bit of market support for this horse. He has won on similar conditions to this, and I have a feeling this race has been the big plan for him in the 2nd half of this season.
3. Mostahdaf
(John & Thady Gosden/Jim Crowley)
In these classy, but also quite open contests, I like to take the tactic of the best horse is the most likely winner. And the Gosden runner here is relatively clear on ratings, with the current rating of 128, that is a fair way clear off everyone else in the field. The one underlining factor that is in the back of my mind with him is the ground, I think the softer conditions might not suit. I would imagine Connections will monitor it after the first few races and decide from there. However, Shadwell are currently going for the top owner for the season, so it might be a case of taking the risk and reaping the rewards.
He no doubt has the best form on offer, with two Group 1’s to his name this season. His first run back in the UK was an excellent performance in the Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at the royal meeting in June, after an 88 day break, he won going away by 4 lengths. He then backed that up in the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes at York last time, where he made all to win by a length, with Nashwa and Paddington in 2nd and 3rd. Those two run in the race before this, so keep an eye on that form and how it turns out etc. That Royal Ascot victory earned him a career high rating of 128, and he backed it up next time out at York.
He is very versatile in terms of how he can race, but the concern is the ground. Should it not be an issue, he could be the they all have to beat here judging by his previous performances and current rating.
1. Bay Bridge
(Sir Michael Stoute/Richard Kingscote)
Last years race was somewhat based around Baaeed and it being his last ever career run before going off to stud, as he looked to go there unbeaten. However, the Sir Michael Stoute horse made sure it wasn’t the fairy-tale ending all us racing fans were hoping for by winning this contest last year, and winning it pretty well indeed. He was somewhat of an unknown quantity before the race this time last year, as his biggest career win to date for a Group 3 Coral Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown in May. However, it is best to focus on the performance in this race from last season, where he was up with the pace and held on gamely to win by half a length with Adayar in 2nd.
He has been mixing it up in some decent company this season, winning the September Stakes at Kempton before heading off to the Arc a few weekends back, where he finished a very creditable 6th, only beaten by a few lengths. The form of the yard this season is a little concern, but we know he likes this race and does well in the expected conditions. It will come as no surprise should we get a repeat from last year, as he did beat quite a classy field that day.
6. Via Sistina
(George Boughey/Oisin Murphy)
A real nice type that has come on well this season, she is the only mare in the field so gets a little weight off the boys, although older than the 3yo’s who run off level weights with her here. The George Boughey star was unfortunate to taste defeat in the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet when last seen 61 days ago, just headed so very close to the line.
The 5yo has Group One winning form over the trip when landing the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh, which when you look back was a decent performance given the circumstances. She was awkward out the stalls, kept at the back before being switch to challenge, where she hung left, hampered a few rivals before going on to stay on well and assert in the closing stages, winning by just under 2 lengths. She pretty much did everything wrong and still got up to win on the day.
Trained by George Boughey, she has been performing well this term and is worthy of taking her chance in this top class Group 1 contest after a 60+ day break. More improvement is needed but could be possible for this progressive mare, and she has proven herself in softer conditions previously. I think she could be a little overpriced in the market.
Big-Race Verdict
In what is quite the classy field, I have found it a little tricky to side with one here, as realistically quite a few of them have chances of landing this feature contest. However, I have decided to side with the 3yo King Of Steel. Although this is a race that might not suit the younger horse, with 9 of the last 12 winners being 4yo or older, Roger Varian thinks the world of this horse. I think this has been the plan all season long, hence why he was dropped down to 1m2f in the Irish Champion Stakes last time out. Although he finished fourth that day, he was only beaten a length and the winner was probably suited by the way he was ridden at the track. Frankie will look to go out with a bang in his last Champion Stakes, and given his ride has some form on the soft, I think this could be made into a stamina test and King Of Steel will be there or thereabouts come the finish. These conditions suit him better than most in the field.
SELECTION: King Of Steel (Win – 4/1 generally)
*odds correct at time of posting – 1.30pm Friday 20th October
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