The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes looks one of the best races of the entire flat season, with the likes of Paddington, Tahiyra and Nashwa all bidding to add their name to the illustrious list of winners in the race. French-based runners have a fine record in the race and they’re represented by Big Rock and Facteur Cheval this year, with both looking to have lively chances.
There’s plenty of questions marks around the market leaders:
- Will Paddington bounce back to form?
- Can Tahiyra mix it with the big boys?
- Can Nashwa return to form back down in trip?
- With no Inspiral in the race, can Frankie steer Chaldean to a memorable victory?
GG editor Tom Aldridge previews this years race, picking out some interesting trends for the race, identifying the key runners and lively outsiders to look out for, before giving his expert verdict on who he expects to win.
Last year’s renewal saw Roger Varian’s 33/1 outsider BAYSIDE BOY run out a shock winner ahead of Modern Games and Jadoomi, after market leader Inspiral had blown the start:
Key Trends
- 9 of the last 10 winners came from stall 6 or higher.
- 7 of the last 10 winners were three-year-olds.
- 7 of the last 10 winners won last time out, including each of the last five renewals.
- 6 of the last 10 winners were rated 120+.
- Only 3 favourites have won in the last ten years, with Roaring Lion being the last winning favourite back in 2018.
- French-based trainers have won three of the last nine renewals.
Key Runners
PADDINGTON
(A P O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
The deserved favourite in here. Has won all four races over this trip, including an impressive three Group 1’s. Two of his victories over this trip have come on soft ground, so the deluge of rain incoming at Ascot won’t hinder his chances, and the only negative he seems to have is the fact he lost his unbeaten record last time out in the Juddmonte International Stakes. He did finish behind Nashwa that day and that rival is now 4lb better off here, but I feel the soft ground and drop in trip will better suit Paddington and I fancy the O’Brien runner to reverse that form on Saturday.
TAHIYRA
(Chris Hayes/D K Weld)
Chris Hayes’ star filly has only tasted defeat once in her career to date, but she might be doing so again on Saturday as I don’t feel she’s up to the lofty standard set by some of her rivals in here. This will be the first time she takes on the boys, and she’ll be receiving weight from all her rivals, but the form of her wins this season hasn’t worked out great and I think she’ll need a career best to get in the mix on Saturday. There’s no denying she’s a talented filly, as she proved when winning the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot in June and the Matron Stakes last month, but I think she’d have wanted the ground to be on the drier side to be seen to her best. With the soft ground probably going against her and the fact she’s taking on the boys for the first time, I’m willing to take her on.
NASHWA
(John & Thady Gosden/Hollie Doyle)
The Frankel filly has been a bit hit and miss over the last year or so, but the drop back in trip can help her and she won’t mind the cut in the ground. Her four races on ground deemed good to soft or worse have seen her two wins and a second, with the other performance easily forgiven on the back of a 204 day break. In her last two races she’s only been beaten by three rivals – Mostahdaf, Auguste Rodin and Luxembourg, which isn’t a bad record at all when you consider they are all multiple Group 1 winners. She finished ahead of Paddington when the pair met in the Juddmonte and she’s 4lb better off with that rival here, but she’s less reliable than the O’Brien runner and her draw in stall 3 isn’t ideal. On her day, she’s easily capable of winning this, but you just can’t be certain which Nashwa will turn up on Saturday!
BIG ROCK
(Christopher Head/Auerlien Lemaitre)
Christopher Head’s colt is the pick of the French raiders when looking at the market, which is interesting considering he’s failed to win any of his last three races. That being said, one of those defeats came against Arc winner Ace Impact, so we can forgive him that one! Another of those defeats came against Inspiral at Deauville back in August, and that form has since been franked by the Gosden runner bolting up in the Sun Chariot Stakes next time out. The french runners last run saw her finish runner-up for the third successive race, when chasing home Sauterne in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp, where he finished half a length ahead of the other french runner lining up on Saturday, Facteur Cheval. He’s 1lb worse off with that rival this time around, and I’d have them closer together in the betting. He’s an interesting runner, but I’m not convinced he should be half the price of the other French runner.
Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes – Key Runners, Lively Outsiders + Big-Race Verdict
The second of four Group 1’s on the card gives the Fillies and Mares a chance to test their credentials and land one of the feature 1m4f prizes for the season. It is a field that might be lacking in some real Group 1 class performers, but there could easily be one or two that…
Thu 19 Oct 2023Lively Outsiders
FACTEUR CHEVAL
(J Reynier/Mickael Barzalona)
The second of the French raiders has an even longer winless streak, stretching back to almost a year to the day. He has since lost all five races, but he’s finished in the top three in each of those and the furthest he’s been beaten by is a length and a half. He’s also stepped up in class this season, with his last three races all being at Group 1 level. They include a close second in the Sussex Stakes behind Paddington, and he meets that rival on 4lb better terms on Saturday. The best of his form has come on soft or worse ground, so with ground conditions to suit I’m expecting a big run from him, especially with top jockey Mickael Barzalona booked again for the ride.
CHALDEAN
(Andrew Balding/Frankie Dettori)
With no Inspiral in the race now, Frankie Dettori has been booked to ride Chaldean, which I’m sure would’ve been the best outcome for Andrew Balding! Frankie has been on board the horse five times, winning three races, including the Dewhurst last year and the 2000 Guineas this season, so he clearly gets on with the horse well. He has winning form on soft ground but has to reverse St James’s Palace Stakes form with Paddington form, and I’m not convinced he will. Paddington seemed to have the measure of him fairly easily that day, and having been soundly beaten in France since, I think he might be outclassed again here.
Big-Race Verdict
I’m fully expecting the ground to be extremely soft on Saturday, which will suit PADDINGTON perfectly. A P O’Brien’s runner wasn’t disgraced when losing his unbeaten record last time out, and with the drop back in trip and the return to softer ground I think he’s a deserved favourite. I’d have preffered him to be drawn a little higher than stall 5, but I do still feel he’ll have the quality to come out on top.
At a bigger price, I can’t ignore the chances of FACTEUR CHEVAL either. The French raider may not have a win to his name this season, but he’s put in some superb efforts and meets Paddington on 4lb better terms than when chasing him home in the Sussex Stakes back in August. His best form has been on soft ground and I’d be confident he’ll be able to reverse form with the other french runner this time around. A 4YO has finished in the top three in each of the last six renewals, and I think he’s a cracking E/W play in this.
SELECTION: PADDINGTON (Win – 6/4 generally) + FACTEUR CHEVAL (E/W – 14/1 generally)
*odds correct at time of posting – 4.15pm Thursday 19th October
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