Ascot plays host to one of it’s biggest days of the year on Saturday, with a huge FOUR Group 1’s on Champions Day. The Group 1’s are sandwiched by the Group 2 Long Distance Cup to kick off the card, and the competitive Balmoral Handicap to end the card, on what promises to be a fantastic day of racing.
Tote are guaranteeing a huge £250,000 in the Placepot for it, so our editor has given his selections in an attempt to land the big prize pot.
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Leg 1: 1.15pm
Leg 1 Selections: (7) Trueshan
With the rain continuing to fall, it’s difficult to get away from TRUESHAN here, who bids to land a fourth successive victory in this. Alan King’s star stayer had looked to be on the decline earlier this season, but a recent wind op seems to have done the trick, and he’s since won the Doncaster Cup and the Qatar Prix du Cadran. Hollie Doyle changed tactics and made all to win the latter, and I think they could go with similar tactics here, but whatever happens I’m struggling to see him finishing out of the places.
Leg 2: 1.50pm
Leg 2 Selections: (2) Kinross (6) Spycatcher
This is a bigger field than the opener, but again there is a clear one to side with in here – last year’s winner KINROSS. He won this comfortably last season, and has been in excellent form of late, winning a couple of Group 2’s before finishing a slightly unfortunate runner-up in the Prix de la Foret last time out. He was forced to switch out at a crucial stage in that race and would’ve likely won with a clearer passage, and providing he has a clear route in here I simply cannot see him finishing out of the top three.
With it being a bigger field, I am going to add another into the placepot, and that’s Karl Burke’s SPYCATCHER, who has been a model of consistency this season. He’s effective on soft ground, has won twice this season and has only finished out of the top three one this season. Last time out he was three lengths behind Sandrine, but dropping back down to 6f should suit the selection more and I expect him to reverse that form.
Leg 3: 2.25pm
Leg 3 Selections: (9) Jackie Oh (8) Bluestocking
I’m a bit surprised to see Free Wind heading the betting currently, as although she put in an excellent performance in the Yorkshire Oaks and can forgive her run in the Arc, I just feel her best form is on better ground and she might struggle to give 6lb to JACKIE OH. A P O’Brien’s 3YO disappointed on her sole previous visit to Ascot but she’s improved since that, winning a Group 3 and finishing runner-up in her two most recent races. That includes last time out in the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera, where she put in a superb effort to chase home Blue Rose Cen. The step up in trip should suit and I expect her to go very close.
The other one I’ll add is BLUESTOCKING, whose best effort to date came on soft ground in the Irish Oaks. She does have a bit to find with Free Wind on Yorkshire Oaks form, but I feel the ground will suit her much more than the favourite and I’m confident she’ll be able to reverse that form. Connections have opted to put her in cheekpieces for the first time and if they can eke out some improvement she’s more than capable of winning this.
Leg 4: 3.05pm
Leg 4 Selections: (9) Paddington (3) Facteur Cheval
This is a fantastic renewal of the QEII Stakes and I’ve already written a preview for this race here or by clicking the image below, so for those who have already read that you’ll know I’m very keen on PADDINGTON returning to form. A P O’Brien’s star 3YO is a perfect 4/4 over this trip, with two of those wins on soft ground, and he only lost his unbeaten record when stepping up in trip in the Juddmonte International Stakes. He was hardly disgraced that day, and the ground wouldn’t have suited him, so I’m more than happy to forgive him losing his winning streak. Back down in trip and with ground conditions to suit, I’m convinced we’ll see him back to his brilliant best in this.
The other one I do like is one of the French raiders – Jérôme Reynier’s FACTEUR CHEVAL. He chased home Paddington in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood on his sole previous visit to the UK, and didn’t get the best of rides from Maxime Guyon that day. He’s since gone close in a Group 1 back in France with Mickael Barzalona on board, and he’s booked again here, which is a positive booking in my eyes. He meets Paddington again on 4lb better terms and I think he’s a cracking E/W bet, so I have to add him to my placepot too.
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes – Key Runners, Lively Outsiders + Big-Race Verdict
The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes looks one of the best races of the entire flat season, with the likes of Paddington, Tahiyra and Nashwa all bidding to add their name to the illustrious list of winners in the race. French-based runners have a fine record in the race and they’re represented by Big Rock and…
Thu 19 Oct 2023Leg 5: 3.45pm
Leg 5 Selections: (3) Mostahdaf (1) Bay Bridge
At the time of writing, French raider Horizon Dore heads the betting, having won his last four races back in France. However, he steps up to Group 1 company for the first time here and I think he may get found out. I’ll be taking him on with the highest rated runner in the field, John & Thady Gosden’s MOSTAHDAF. Comfortably clear on ratings, he arrives on the back of two Group 1 wins, albeit both on better ground, but he has a 2/2 record on soft ground too (only at Listed level admittedly) so I don’t think the ground will be as big an issue as people are making out. He is the best horse in the race and I’m just hoping class prevails, regardless of the ground conditions.
If connections deem the ground too soft, they may pull him out, so I will also put up last year’s winner BAY BRIDGE as a second selection. Ignoring his debut, his record with cut in the ground is superb so there’s no doubts whatsover about him handling the conditions on Saturday. He also comfortably beat Mostahdaf at Sandown last year, and did well to finish 6th in this year’s Arc, so there’s no doubting he’s a talented horse. Putting both runners in seems a pretty safe option to me, and I’d be extremely disappointed if we went out of the placepot here.
Leg 6: 4.25PM
Leg 6 Selections: (12) Rhoscolyn (2) Raadobarg
The only handicap in the race, and this is extremely difficult to try and pick the winner out of! I’ve used recent race trends to try and narrow the field, and one angle is the impressive record David O’Meara has had in recent renewals – he’s won 3 of the last 6 runnings, and has a runner finish second in one of the other renewals. I think the pick of his runners this year will be RHOSCOLYN, whose best efforts this season have come with cut in the ground. His last effort over this trip saw him run out a gutsy winner at Goodwood last month, and he was only a couple of lengths away from the winner here in his last race a couple of weeks ago. David O’Meara and Jason Watson teamed up to win this last year with Shelir and I expect them to be thereabouts at the finish again this year with Rhoscolyn.
Nine of the last ten winners were rated 101+, so I’m also going to add in RAADOBARG. This will be his first race this season outside of Class 1 company, and he’s hardly disgraced himself in any of his races since joining George Boughey’s yard. One of his best efforts this season came at Ascot, when finishing within 3/4 of a length of the winner Chindit in May – the winner gave that bit of form a major boost when finishing runner-up in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes next time out. The selections last two runs have seen him finish third on both occasions, and with all bar one of his career victories coming on ground with cut in, I expect conditions to suit him here. Rossa Ryan is booked again for the ride and he’s in superb form currently, and with the drop in class sure to help see him to better effort, I expect to see Raadobarg go close.
Suggested Placepot
Leg 1 Selections: (7) Trueshan
Leg 2 Selections: (2) Kinross (6) Spycatcher
Leg 3 Selections: (9) Jackie Oh (8) Bluestocking
Leg 4 Selections: (9) Paddington (3) Facteur Cheval
Leg 5 Selections: (3) Mostahdaf (1) Bay Bridge
Leg 6 Selections: (12) Rhoscolyn (2) Raadobarg
32 Lines x 50p = £16
Check out this week’s Weekend Watch podcast, where Andrew Mount, Dave Young and Kate Tracey guide us through their picks on the fantastic Champions Day card at Ascot:
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