The Group 1 Vertem Futurity Trophy is one of the key races for 2YO’s in the flat season and often gives us pointers towards some of the classic winners for the following season. Eight runners are set to go to post for this years renewal, with A P O’Brien hoping to continue his excellent record in the race.
Our editor has identified some of the key trends to follow and provided a runner-by-runner guide below, including our big-race verdict.
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Vertem Futurity Trophy – Doncaster (1m, 3.35pm Saturday 22nd October)
Key Race Trends
- A P O’Brien has won four of the last ten renewals (including three of the last five).
- Favourites have won six of the last ten renewals.
- Seven of the last ten winners had raced over one mile previously. Five of those had won at the trip.
- Of those to have an official rating (only four winners in the last ten renewals had an OR), they have all been rated 108+.
- Six of the last ten winners won their last race (although only two of the last five).
- Six of the last ten winners had already raced in a group 1-3 race. Of those six, all six had won at least one of their group 1-3 races.
- Just two winners in the last ten renewals won at double-figure odds (33/1 Marcel in 2015 + 12/1 Mac Swiney in 2020)
Runner-By-Runner Guide
Auguste Rodin
Currently ante-post favourite for next year’s Derby and the best chance for A P O’Brien to continue his excellent record in the race. Fits the trends for racing and winning over one mile previously, having an OR of 108+, and winning in group company. That group win came last time out in the Champions Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown, where he always looked the likely winner and won a shade cosily. Will go off as favourite and could take some stopping.
Captain Wierzba
Outsider of the field who was last seen in a Group 3 at Saint-Cloud, where rival jockey Christophe Soumillion pushed Rossa Ryan off Captain Wierzba and has since been subsequently banned for two months. Prior to that he had made all to gain his maiden victory at Ffos Las back in August. Does appear to be up against it however, with only two recent winners winning at double-figure odds.
Dancing Magic
Another outsider who looks up against it. Has failed to win any of his four races to date, including finishing behind Epictetus and Holloway Boy in the Autumn Stakes last time out. Doesn’t bode well for him that he’s raced in group company but failed to win, and with outsiders not having a great record he would be a shock winner.
Epictetus
John & Thady Gosden’s sole runner in the line up, who was just edged out by Silver Knott in the Autumn Stakes. Had previously won on debut, finishing comfortably clear of Flying Honours, who has since won the Group 3 Zetland Stakes. Fits the ratings trend and has raced over one mile previously, but doesn’t fit the trend of winning his last race. However, he was only just touched off in the Autumn Stakes and that is some of the best form on offer, so he is one of the likelier winners and a big run is expected.
Holloway Boy
The shock 40/1 Royal Ascot winner has failed to win since, although he has gone close in all three races. He placed in the group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood, and only found Nostrum too good in the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes at Newmarket. His most recent run saw his path blocked when making his run, and eventually running on well when in the clear to chase home Silver Knott and Epictetus in the Autumn Stakes. With a clearer run here he can be expected to go close, but it may be a case of finding a couple too good again.
King Of Steel
David Loughnane’s colt ran out an impressive winner on his debut earlier this month, but this will be a huge step up in class. He could handle it, but the only horse to have come here after just one race and win was Kingsbarns back in 2012, and he was sent off as favourite that day. This isn’t the strongest renewal, but he will have to be something special to land the honours.
Salt Lake City
A P O’Brien’s second string was last seen running out a comfortably five length winner of a maiden at Navan earlier this month, but was previously well beaten at York by Desert Order. That winner had previously been beaten by Epictetus, so on that form he looks up against it in here. He does fit the trend of winning his last race, plus winning over the one mile trip, and his trainers superb record in the race does give him a shout. However, he isn’t the yards main hope, and with the collateral form with Epictetus he could be hoping for a placed finish at best.
Stormbuster
Dubawi colt who was last seen running out a decisive winner at Newbury last month, and seems to be improving with each run. Prior to that, he was comfortably beaten by Flying Honours at Salisbury, and that winner had previously been well beaten by Epictetus. He does fit the trend of winning over one mile in his most recent race, however his OR of 99 puts him up against it here, and the collateral form with Epictetus suggests he will find a few too good here.
Vertem Futurity Trophy Verdict
Trainer A P O’Brien can continue his excellent record in the race with AUGUSTE RODIN, who looks to be the next star of his. He is already a Group 2 winner, which is the best form on offer here, and he can put that to good use to land his first Group 1. Epictetus has some solid form lines over a couple of this rivals and he looks best of the rest. Unfortunately that’s reflected in the odds, so for those looking for an E/W angle into the race the pick could be Holloway Boy, who would’ve finished closer to Epictetus with a clearer run in the Autumn Stakes last time out.
- Auguste Rodin
- Epictetus
- Holloway Boy
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