In-play betting will be a key factor in this year’s World Cup, allowing bettors to place wagers on a game at the finals while it is live. The in-play odds can change quickly based on what is happening on the pitch with goals, cards, substitutions, injuries and game state all having a massive impact.
This in-play betting strategy will be a guide to reading the match properly rather than reacting emotionally to the changing of the odds.
What Is In-Play Betting?
In-play betting is the act of betting on a match once it has begun. There are a huge range of markets that remain available to customers after the match has kicked off, including match result, next goal, over/under goals, corners, cards, player shots, team to qualify and bet builders.
Significantly, in-play differs from betting before the match has kicked off in that it is constantly changing based on the action on the pitch.
How Live Odds Move During a World Cup Match
Events on the pitch can change odds in any number of ways, with early goals, red cards or injuries often the biggest culprits in terms of market moves.
Markets often suspend when something like a VAR check, a substitution or penalty is taking place, allowing the odds compilers to react to the changes of the game.
However, the odds can overreact in big moments, especially if bettors pile into a favourite chasing the game or to back a high amount of goals if there is an early strike.
Read the Game State Before Betting
Game state is arguably the most important aspect of in-play betting, with every team’s requirements and needs likely to be different. For example, a favourite going behind early and a team needing a draw to qualify are likely to play very differently.
Likewise, if a knockout match is heading towards extra-time, teams are likely to behave in a different way from in the first five minutes of a group-stage contest.
If a team is already through after their first two group games, they may also approach the final one very differently.
Best World Cup In-Play Markets to Consider
Some of the best in-play markets to consider include over/under goals, with changes in the flow of a game able to offer insight into how many goals will be scored.
Card markets can also be an interesting angle, especially in knockout games or matches with plenty of tactical fouls.
Team to qualify markets can also be valuable in the latter stages of a tournament, with momentum swings happening often.
In-Play Betting During the Group Stage
Group-stage in-play betting can be affected by the qualification scenarios of each team. Sides may have to play in a more attacking way based on what is happening in other games in their group. This can happen especially quickly in the final group games, in which things can change at almost every moment.
In-Play Betting During the Knockout Stage
The knockout stages can differ from group games, with teams often willing to settle for extra-time rather than risk losing. It must be noted that to win in 90 minutes and to qualify markets are not the same.
Common In-Play Betting Mistakes
In-play bettors often make mistakes, which includes betting immediately after a goal, ignoring vital team news or substitutions and chasing losses.
It must also be noted that favourites are often poor prices in play and lots of knockout stage matches can end up going to extra-time rather than seeing a winner in 90 minutes.
Responsible In-Play Betting Tips
Live betting moves quickly and impulsive decisions can be made. Always set a budget for your betting before the match and don’t chase losses or make emotional bets. Always bet on markets that you understand.