The Breeders’ Cup gets under way at Keeneland on Friday, with four Grade 1 juvenile contests showcasing some of the best two-year-olds from both sides of the Atlantic.
Matty Sutcliffe has been studying the form ahead of the opening day, picking out four horses to watch.
18:55 Keeneland – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Grade 1) (Turf) (2yo)
Libertango is the obvious play in here, with a strongly run contest looking likely to play into her hands from stall two, but down the market, VELOZEE may be worth considering at the prices, given how closely her form ties in with the favourite.
The Sioux Nation filly won her first two starts, both over the minimum trip, at the start of the season, looking very much a filly to follow. She took a backwards step when stepping up in trip to six furlongs at Naas behind Victorious, but that didn’t appear to be her true running, and she was back to form when closing the gap on that rival in the Queen Mary, faring best of those held up in a race which appeared to suit those to the fore throughout.
Velozee was then third to Moonrise at Ascot, travelling strongly in front but unable to stay on up the hill as strongly as the two ahead. Her next race saw her post a career-best RPR when a length third to Sun Goddess in the Phoenix Stakes, just behind Folsom Blues in second and pulling clear of the fourth.
The winner has since won twice more before beating Libertango by a similar margin in the Cheveley Park last time out, and the runner-up bolted up by six lengths in the National Stakes. Velozee was a solid third, and as has been the theme of her races, she had the highest stride frequency in the contest along with a fairly short stride length, which suggests this Keeneland track will play to her strengths.
She wasn’t disgraced down in class next time out, and while she does have to improve markedly on that, this strong-travelling filly will be suited by a patient ride from stall six and shapes as if racing around a bend will bring out further improvement.
19:35 Keeneland – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) (Dirt) (2yo)
The unbeaten EMPHATIC has stall ten to contend with, which might make life trickier, but having twice already displayed the ability to handle two turns, as well as being able to break sharply, those draw concerns can be negated.
She comfortably won her first two starts in the summer, before stepping up in grade for the Alcibiades Stakes over course and distance earlier this month. The 17/20 favourite Summer Starlet, who bolted up by five lengths in the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes at Saratoga, was widely expected to win, but Emphatic confirmed her superiority, pulling over a length clear of her and 18 lengths clear of the third in the process.
The Alcibiades Stakes has proved a successful path to this race, with both Immersive (2024), also by Nyquist, and Wonder Wheel (2022), also ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, landing the double, the latter when the Breeders’ Cup was staged at Keeneland.
Another daughter of Nyquist landed this in 2020, and Emphatic can follow suit if negotiating stall ten early on.
20:15 Keeneland – John Deere Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) (Turf) (2yo)
I’d have thought Oisin Murphy would’ve been obliged to ride Curracloe for Qatar Racing here, but ten minutes before writing this selection, I discovered he’s set to part ways with Qatar as their retained jockey, presumably why he’s been given free rein to ride ALWAYSANANGEL.
Murphy rode the winner of this race last season for Joseph O’Brien’s brother Donnacha, and lightning can strike twice. The daughter of Harry Angel is still relatively unexposed after four starts, having made a winning debut at Fairyhouse in July.
She then stepped up to Group 2 company, where she was only just beaten by two of our best fillies in Señorita Bonita and Libertango, staying on strongly. She confirmed the suspicion that she’d improve for a step up in trip when taking a Listed race at Cork over seven furlongs in fairly comfortable fashion, having travelled strongly throughout.
A clear career-best followed when third to Sun Goddess in the Cheveley Park Stakes, failing to match the gears of that one back down in trip. She again stayed on strongly there, and this step up to a strongly run mile could suit.
She’s not obviously bred for the trip by Harry Angel, but she’s out of a Dalakhani mare from a family of winning milers, with Footstepsinthesand in the pedigree too.
21:35 Keeneland – Brown Advisory Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) (Colts & Geldings) (Turf) (2yo)
The Europeans have largely dominated this race, as our turf horses are naturally far superior, but we appear markedly weaker in this division than in most years.
The main hope is Folsom Blues, but he has stamina to prove. I’ve said a few times of late that I don’t rate Haffner’s form all that highly, and Great Barrier Reef is another with stamina to prove, particularly from stall 14.
The home team have won the race just three times in the last ten years, though one of those came here, and HOW’S AL TODAY can follow suit. The Munnings colt made a winning debut on the dirt at Churchill Downs over five and a half furlongs in June, but failed to back that up in Grade 2 company next time out.
Connections switched him to the turf at Kentucky Downs, and he created a smart impression when bolting up by four lengths under Brian Hernandez for the first time. He was then stepped up to a mile in Listed company back there, and he confirmed suspicions that he was potentially a very smart colt on grass as he again bolted up, by just over four lengths.
He travelled notably strongly in midfield, before angling wide off the bend and displaying a smart turn of foot, just nine days after his previous win, that none of them could come close to matching. The form has worked out well, with the second and third winning since, the latter a Grade 2 here on the grass.
He’s had more time to sharpen up than he did before his last race, and if progressing again, he can prove the biggest threat to the Europeans, with plenty of questions surrounding them.
Matthew Sutcliffe’s Four to Watch for Friday 30 October
18:55 Keeneland – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Grade 1) (Turf) (2yo) – Velozee 16/1 1pt EW 3 places
19:35 Keeneland – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) (Dirt) (2yo) – Emphatic 5/2 1pt WIN
20:15 Keeneland – John Deere Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) (Turf) (2yo) – Alwaysanangel 16/1 1pt EW 3 places
21:35 Keeneland – Brown Advisory Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) (Colts & Geldings) (Turf) (2yo) – How’s Al Today 7/1 1pt WIN
FAQs
When was Matthew Sutcliffe’s article published?
Matty Sutcliffe’s article was published at 3.25pm on Wednesday 28 October.
Who is Matthew Sutcliffe?
Matthew Sutcliffe is GG’s newest contributor, often providing a value angle for his tips. He writes weekly columns for the weekend’s racing, as well as taking aim at ante-post markets at the Cheltenham Festival. Follow him on X: @MattySutcliffe
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