A big field handicap at Newmarket which has seen many Irish trained winners over the years and a few more fancied winners in recent renewals.
I’ve looked at what it takes to land this prestigious event by comparing trends from the last 25 running’s to the last 10.
KEY TRENDS
- Probably aged between 4 and 7 but respect horses aged 10 or 11
- Respect single-figure priced runners and especially the 3rd favourite at SP
- Draw bias suggests being drawn in the lower two thirds with a preference to the bottom 5 stalls
- Respect runners rated 83-88 and carrying 8-8 or less
- Preferably placed Top 4 last time out
- Not expected to have Rowley Mile form
- Not expected to have won if 3 or fewer runs but ideally has won with 4 or more runs this season
- Respect Irish trained runners
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 4yo – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 5yo – 4/25 (16%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 6yo – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 7yo – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 2/25 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 9yo – 0/25 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 10yo – 1/25 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 11yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
Winner of all aged in this race over the last 25 years but it’s worth noting that horses aged 10 and 11 hold the highest strike rates and are both profitable to back blind from just one winner each from 12 runners collectively.
5-year-olds have the worst strike rate this century with just 4 winners from 199 runners. That said, 3 of those winners came in the last decade from 84 runner’s but that still leaves them and loss-makers if backing blind.
PRICE
- Favourites – 4/25 (16%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Top 3 in the betting – 12/25 (48%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 8/1 or shorter – 8/25 (32%) & 6/10 (60%)
In the last 10 renewals we’ve had 7 winners from the Top 3 in the betting but it’s 3rd favourites who hold 4 of those wins and show a healthy £22 profit from 14 qualifiers. This ties in somewhat with the number of winners who were sent off 8/1 or shorter which includes more runners but is still profitable, just on a smaller scale.
It’s the same 3rd favourites that make money from the last 25 renewals with £28 profit from 32 qualifiers so that’s a marker that seems to be consistent and probably still improving.
DRAW
- Bottom 5 stalls – 10/25 (40%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Top 5 stalls – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- Stall 1-11 – 12/25 (48%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Stall 12-22 – 9/25 (36%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Stall 23+ – 4/25 (16%) & 2/10 (20%)
There is a noticeable draw bias in this contest with lower drawn runners holding favour. The maximum field size has reduced in recent years, but splitting the stalls into thirds shows that you want to be in the lower two-thirds.
WEIGHT AND OFFICIAL RATING
- Carrying 8-8 or lower – 12/25 (48%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Holds an OR of 83 to 88 – 11/25 (44%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Combined – 11/25 (44%) & 4/10 (40%)
While the measures above find less than half of winners we do see the OR bracket as profitable across the last 25 renewals showing a 117% ROI using Betfair SP and 14% to industry SP.
When combining the weight carried and official rating held we find 11 winners from the last 25 renewals which shows a 30% ROI to SP but 155% to Betfair SP. The combination is performing at an actual versus expected of 1.5! It still runs at an A/E of 1.37 from the last 10 renewals but it’s -17% ROI to SP yet +42% ROI to Betfair SP. Looks like a system for the exchange SP’s but well worth noting.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran at 2 miles or further – 19/25 (76%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Top 4 finish – 17/25 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Sent off 5/1 or shorter last time out – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
Placing in the Top 4 last time out looks like a good indicator and while more winners than not ran at 2 miles or further last time out, it’s clearly not an essential.
More winners than not were sent off bigger than 5/1 last time out, so potentially in a competitive race or while having a clear prep run.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Newmarket Rowley Mile – 12/25 (48%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Winners who had WON at Newmarket Rowley Mile – 2/12 (17%) & 0/4 (0%)
- Winners who had RUN in a previous Cesarewitch – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
Possibly not too many options to have run here before but with many older horses having won this contest it’s maybe slightly surprising how few had won here or even run here.
With that in mind, looking at winners who had previously competed in this race finds a few but the last back in 2020 and only Aim To Prosper has ever won this race twice, which didn’t come in successive season.
SEASON FORM
- Had 3 runs or fewer this season – 14/25 (56%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 0 wins this season – 14/25 (56%) & 4/10 (40%)
Most winners of this race and more so in the last decade, had run no more than 3 times this season. That lends itself to make the 0 wins this season marker looks more understandable but I’d expect horses with 4 or more runs to have won this season, those with 3 or fewer are likely to be winless.
TRAINERS (with winners in the last decade)
- Mullins, WP – 3/32 +£10.50
- Oleary, Mrs C (Tony Martin) – 1/1 +£33
- Mullins, Emmet – 1/5 +£10
- Henderson, N J – 1/2 +£7
- Charlton, Roger/Harry – 1/4 +£2
- Brynes, C – 1/4 +£1
- Morrison, H – 1/17 -£9
- William, Ian – 1/20 -£12
Looking at the winning trainers from the last 10 renewals you can see that the split is 60/40 in favour of Irish trainers and all the winning Irish trainers would be profitable to back blind.
Not going to be a hard and fast system to follow but we’ve seen Irish raiders performing better in recent years in English flat handicaps than they have done previously.
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