Home / News / Champions Day Trends – Dave Young’s analysis of flat season finale

Champions Day Trends - Dave Young's analysis of flat season finale

Champions Day Trends - Dave Young's analysis of flat season finale

A week before the final British Group 1 of the season, Ascot hosts Champions Day with 5 Group 1’s on show. It truly does attract the best of the best and it’s no surprise that it’s the richest day in British racing.

I’ve pulled together some trends for the last 10 years to help piece together who is likely to take these races this year.

13:30 LONG DISTANCE CUP – GROUP 1 – 2M

The Long Distance Cup was promoted to a Group 1 from last year and this is the longest race on Champions Day. It was previously held in Newmarket but was brought to Ascot as part of the Champion Day initiative. 

  • 9 of the last 10 winners had won 2 or more times that season
  • 9 of the last 10 winners finished top 2 last time out (7 had won)
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had already run at Ascot (7 had won)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had already run at 2 miles (6 had won)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had won a Group 1
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were sent off 7/2 or shorter
  • 6 of the last 10 winners were the favourite

“Has two or more wins this season, placed Top 2 but preferably won last time out and has already run and preferably won at Ascot. Had raced at 2 miles, has won a Group 1 and respect the favourite”

14:05 CHAMPIONS SPRINT STAKES – GROUP 1 – 6F

The Champion Sprint Stakes saw Powerful Glory as a 200/1 winner in 2025 which made him the biggest priced winner in British Group 1 history. It was a crazy year given Qirat won at 150/1 just over a couple of months prior.

  • 9 of the last 10 winners had already run at Ascot (8 more than once)
  • 9 of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had NOT already won a Group 1
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 112+
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had between 2 and 5 wins at 6 furlongs
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had won that season
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had 5 or more runs that season
  • 6 of the last 10 winners finished top 2 last time out

“Likely to have run at Ascot and preferably more than once, did NOT win last time out had NOT won a Group 1 and ideally holds an OR of 112 or higher and has 2-5 wins at 6-furlongs”

14:45 CHAMPIONS FILLIES & MARES STAKES – GROUP 1 – 1M 4F

The Champions Fillies’ & Mares’ could be seeing something exceptional if the reigning Champion and current two-time winner Kalpana manages to secure her third success. She’s higher rated now than ever before and would be one the most memorable winners of the meeting this year, and for a long time to come too.

  • ALL of the last 10 winners had 3 or more runs that season
  • ALL of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 6 or higher
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had already won that season
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had already run at 1m 4f
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 111+
  • 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were 3-year-olds
  • 7 of the last 10 winners last ran 35 days ago or less
  • 6 of the last 10 winners last raced in France

“Will have 3 or more runs this season, be drawn in stall 6 or higher and preferably has won this season. Had run at 1m4f, holds an OR of 111 or higher and comes from the top 3 in the betting”

15:25 QUEEN ELIZABETH II STAKES – GROUP 1 – 1M

There has been no multiple winners of this contest since it became a Group 1 back in 1987 but any race with Frankel on the honours board shows just how special it is. We’ve had just 1 winning favourite in the last 7 years and in those 7 years every winner last raced in either Sandown or Longchamp.

  • ALL of the last 10 winners at least placed last time out (6 won)
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had 3 or more runs that season
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had already won that season
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had already won at 1 mile
  • 9 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 6 or higher
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had 5 or more career wins
  • 7 of the last 10 winners last raced in Sandown or Longchamp (the last 7)
  • 6 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 118+
  • 6 of the last 10 winners were 3-year-olds

“At least placed last time out but preferably won, has 3 or more runs this season and has won this season. Has won at 1 mile, drawn in stall 6 or higher and respect those coming from Sandown or Longchamp”

16:05 CHAMPION STAKES – GROUP 1 – 1M 2F

Another Group 1 with Frankel on the honours roll and this 10-furlong contest typically requires a horse rated 120 or higher. Back in 2011, this race held the status as Britain’s richest horse race before that title was reclaimed by The Derby in 2012, the year that Frankel won this race.

  • 9 of the last 10 winners had 4 or more career wins
  • 9 of the last 10 winners either won or were unplaced last time out
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had 3 or more runs that season
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 120+
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had already won at 1m 2f
  • 8 of the last 10 winners were aged either 3 or 4
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had already won a Group 1

“Has 4 or more career wins preferably including a Group 1. Either won or was unplaced last time out and has 3 or more runs this season. Holds an OR of 120 or higher, has won at 1m2f and is aged 3 or 4”

16:40 BALMORAL HANDICAP – CLASS 2 – 1M

A handicap to close Champions Day and it’s seen 8 of the last 10 winners holding an OR of 101 or higher and displays a draw bias given the field size. Arguably the easiest race to profile and also find a winner at a big price, the ‘getting out’ stakes on Champions Day is just as important a race for punters to find a winner in, as any of the Group 1’s that proceed it.

  • ALL of the last 10 winners last ran 25 days ago or less
  • ALL of the last 10 winners had NOT run further than 10 furlongs
  • ALL of the last 10 winners came from stall 11 and lower or 21 and higher
  • ALL of the last 10 winners carried between 8-12 and 9-6
  • 9 of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
  • 9 of the last 10 winners were Irish or British bred
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had no more than 4 career wins (the other had 5)
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had raced at Ascot before

“Last ran 25 days ago or less, hasn’t run beyond 10f in their career, drawn in stall 11 or lower or in stall 21 or higher and carries 8-12 to 9-6. Didn’t win last time out, is Irish or British bred, has no more than 4 career wins and has raced at Ascot before”

Commercial notice: This article on GG.co.uk contains affiliate links. The offers we promote come from operators that we trust and our experts have first-hand experience dealing with. If you open an account through one of these affiliate links then GG will earn revenue. However, we ensure that the money earned goes back into improving and enhancing our coverage of horse racing and other sports, as we look to provide an excellent service to our growing audience.