The Charlie Hall Chase is the feature of a two-day early-season fixture at Wetherby, but the meeting is also home to the West Yorkshire Hurdle, another Grade 2 contest run on the same Saturday.
Always keen to find winners, I’ve looked at the last 15 renewals of each race to highlight the trends that matter and hopefully help us land on the winner of both.
CHARLIE HALL CHASE
There are 19 fences to be jumped in the Charlie Hall Chase, and we’ve seen plenty of top horses both win and lose this race, so I’m determined to find out what it takes to be in the former group.
Topline Trends
- All of the last 15 winners were aged between 6 and 9
- 13 of the last 15 winners were NOT the favourite (five were second favourite and five were third favourite)
- 13 of the last 15 winners did NOT win last time out
- 13 of the last 15 winners had already won at Grade 2 level or higher
- 12 of the last 15 winners had NOT raced at Wetherby (the other three had run and won here)
- 12 of the last 15 winners were NOT the highest-rated runner in the race
Age
- 6yo – 4/15 (27%)
- 7yo – 4/15 (27%)
- 8yo – 3/15 (20%)
- 9yo – 4/15 (27%)
There’s a clear age bracket that finds the winner of this race, but what’s more interesting is comparing the younger end of it with the older. 6 and 7-year-olds are both profitable to back blind, while 8 and 9-year-olds are not. In fact, four 6-year-olds have run in this race in the last 15 years and all of them won.
Price
- Favourites – 2/15 (13%)
- 5/2 to 8/1 – 12/15 (80%)
Favourites have a hard time in this race, and there have been three odds-on favourites in the last 15 years, all of which were beaten.
That doesn’t mean this is a race to look for a shock or big-priced winner, though, with 12 of the 15 winners sent off between 5/2 and 8/1, and backing all of those blind has been profitable (+£21 from 43 runners).
Last Time Out
- Won – 2/15 (13%)
- Top 3 – 4/15 (27%)
- 156 to 259 days off – 10/15 (67%)
- Raced left-handed – 10/15 (67%)
- Raced between 2m5f and 3m1f – 8/15 (53%)
Four of the five winners who had already run this season were beaten on that run, which fits the general pattern that winners of this race probably didn’t win last time out. Even a top-three finish hasn’t been a pointer to success here.
Most winners came here fresh, and most also raced left-handed last time out. On that point, Djelo was the only runner to qualify under that marker last year, and he won the race. Horses who raced right-handed last time out are profitable to back blind, showing a minor 1% ROI across the last 15 years, but only two of those winners came in the last 10 renewals, which makes them unattractive overall.
Just over half of the winners last ran over a trip between 2m5f and 3m1f inclusive. The real relevance of this trend is that backing everything that ticks this box shows a -45% ROI, whereas backing everything else finds just one fewer winner and shows a +44% ROI.
Course Form
- Winners who had RUN at Wetherby – 3/15 (20%)
- Winners who had WON at Wetherby – 3/3 (100%)
While course form isn’t essential, if a horse has been here before, it must have won here too. It doesn’t need to be a multiple course winner, but it can’t have been here and not won.
Career Form
- 3 or more chase wins – 14/15 (93%)
- Had won a Grade 2 or better – 13/15 (87%)
Winners are split roughly half and half between those with double-figure chase starts and those without, but most had at least three chase wins. Most winners had also won a Grade 2 or better before now.
Official Rating
- Winners who held the highest OR in the race – 3/15 (20%)
- Winners who held an OR between 159 and 165 – 7/15 (47%)
Most winners of this race were NOT the highest-rated runner in the field, and some of that will be down to the penalties carried. While just under half of the winners held an OR between 159 and 165, that bracket shows a 58% ROI, so it looks like the place to start.
WEST YORKSHIRE HURDLE
The staying hurdle division gets an early-season feature here, and this is a race that has produced a few two-time winners, including Tidal Bay in his later years. It hasn’t been a race for favourites in the main, but we’ve also had only two double-figure priced winners this century, and they were sent off at just 10/1 and 12/1.
Topline Trends
- Age is not a significant indicator in this race
- Horses who have run here before are expected to have won here too
- 13 of the last 15 winners were the 2nd, 3rd or 4th favourite (the other two were favourite)
- 12 of the last 15 winners raced left-handed last time out
- 12 of the last 15 winners had at least 4 wins over hurdles
- 10 of the last 15 winners had already won at Grade 2 level or higher
Age
- 5yo – 1/15 (7%)
- 6yo – 2/15 (13%)
- 7yo – 4/15 (27%)
- 8yo – 4/15 (27%)
- 9yo – 1/15 (7%)
- 10yo – 1/15 (7%)
- 11yo – 1/15 (7%)
- 12yo – 1/15 (7%)
With winners aged from 5 to 12, you’re not going to whittle down this field much using age, but it’s worth mentioning that 9-year-olds have the lowest strike-rate at just 7%.
Price
- Favourites – 2/15 (13%)
- 2nd to 4th favourite – 13/15 (87%)
Favourites don’t have a great record in this contest, but those just behind them in the betting, in 2nd, 3rd and 4th, account for the rest of the winners, and each of those markers is profitable to back blind.
Last Time Out
- Won – 4/15 (27%)
- Top 2 – 8/15 (53%)
- 189 to 309 days off – 11/15 (73%)
- Raced left-handed – 12/15 (80%)
- Raced between 3m and 3m½f – 8/15 (53%)
Last time out winners are not profitable to back blind, but last time out runners-up are, and the two groups have produced the same number of winners. Most winners finished in the top five last time out, and no winner had failed to complete on their previous start.
More winners than not came here fresh and had raced left-handed last time out but, as with the Charlie Hall Chase, you won’t make money following those. You would, however, if you backed those who raced right-handed last time out.
Backing all runners who last ran over between 3m and 3m½f shows only the tiniest of profits, but it has found the last two winners, who were the only qualifiers in their respective years.
Course Form
- Winners who had RUN at Wetherby – 5/15 (33%)
- Winners who had WON at Wetherby – 4/5 (80%)
As with the Charlie Hall, course form isn’t essential, but if a horse has been here before, it’s most likely a course winner too.
Career Form
- 4 or more hurdle wins – 12/15 (80%)
- Had won a Grade 2 or better – 10/15 (67%)
Some seasoned hurdlers have landed this prize, as have some horses who had already been chasing. The minimum bar, though, is four hurdle wins, and it’s preferable that they have already won a Grade 2 or better.
Official Rating
- Winners who held the highest OR in the race – 5/15 (33%)
- Winners who held an OR between 142 and 149 – 7/15 (47%)
- Winners who held an OR between 150 and 160 – 8/15 (53%)
Backing the highest-rated runner in this contest would have found a third of the winners, including the last two, and shows a healthy 43% ROI. That said, before those two, the last top-rated winner came back in 2016, so it’s not a hard and fast rule.
Backing all runners with an OR between 142 and 149 is profitable blind, showing a 15% ROI, and backing all runners rated between 150 and 160 is also profitable, with a 6% ROI. Ultimately, expect the winner to hold an OR of between 142 and 160.
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