It doesn’t feel like that many weeks ago where I was writing about the weather wreaking havoc on fixtures, but we’re reminded again of how there are many uncontrollable elements that impact this sport. With a frosty forecast ahead I’m not going to be all doom and gloom as it does afford the opportunity to recuperate, and we may now see some more competitive fields.
In more positive news, the Gold Cup, Ryanair and Champion Chase entries have been released today so it’s really feeling like everything leads into Cheltenham now.
I’ll cover as much as I can in here but there will be no addition to the Ante Post suggestions just yet, but we can at least talk about a few who have been put in before now.
THE WEEK JUST GONE
New Years Day
At Cheltenham we saw a few good performances on their New Year’s Day card which started with Kalif Du Berlais taking a big step forward from his Newbury Handicap debut. He was officially rated 141 going into the race but has been handed a 10lb hike by the handicapper, justified given how good he looked, and he’s only a 5yo so has a serious future ahead of him all being well. You’d think the Arkle would be his only plausible target at Cheltenham, but connections might wait with him and Prestbury Park may not be on the cards, much like it wasn’t last season either.
Diva Luna drifted in the market to SP at 5/4 having been installed as short as 8/15 the night before, however she was entitled to win the race but was certainly priced too short in the first instance. Still, she’s shown a likable attitude and while I don’t think she had too much to beat, she’s still put some distance between herself and those in behind so there was plenty to like and I’m often a little harsh on the horses I have higher hopes for. She’s done little wrong so far.
Chantry House got back to winning ways, but the feeling post-race was that Nicky Henderson wasn’t expecting him to do so, and the original plan of Hunter Chasing is now no longer an option. It was good to see him winning again, but I thought Broadway Boy was another favourite who was installed too short. Maybe he sulked with not getting things his own way up top, but he didn’t jump as well as he can and that’s now two races at Cheltenham where he’s been a beaten favourite in handicaps. He’s starting to look held now off his mark of 150 so they may have to rethink spring targets and possibly wait for some relief by the handicapper.
Springwell Bay was an emphatic winner and while he was handicapped to run very well after his effort behind Jango Baie, he was slightly helped with the other favourite running no race and Colonel Harry falling before he’d shown his hand. I like the runner-up, Marble Sands, but I’m a little uncomfortable with the way the handicapper has taken the result as literal and raised Springwell Bay from 145 up to 154 which is 9lbs for a 9-length win. I’m not sure where you’d go with him after this. Maybe an Ultima with the fact they’ve tried a trip with him before although he was keen behind Hyland earlier this season. I think I heard that the Arkle might have been cited as an option but that’s surely a bizarre reference. He is another who, like Broadway Boy, may just be in the grips of the handicapper now.
Lucky Place took the Grade 2 Relkeel under a penalty having taken the Grade 2 Ascot Hurdle back in November. After suggesting him as a Stayers’ Hurdle bet, I have written about my worries with him not being entered in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle back at Ascot since. Clearly, my worry was premature as Nicky Henderson suggested that this was the plan since his last win and the Cleeve Hurdle will be his next target. It was another step in the right direction, and he’s now risen from a mark of 140 at the start of the season up to 153 as of now. He’ll still have to progress further if he’s going to make into a genuine Stayers’ Hurdle challenger but his last 3 RPR’s have increased by 4, then 6 and then 8 and I think he’s going to be even better when stepped up to 3 miles. That Cleeve Hurdle is going to be some contest with the prospect of Crambo, Strong Leader and The Wallpark from the Long Walk facing off again and Lucky Place being thrown very much into the deep end. I say thrown into the deep end as it’s going to be borderline Grade 1 standard for this division but I thought he might be ready to do that in the Long Walk, so the fact Nicky Henderson has bought time and experience over the middle trip beforehand means he’s hopefully going to be ready, and it won’t be a sink or swim moment.
Still with New Years Day but over in Ireland, Fairyhouse saw Willie Mullins and Paul Townend landing 4 of the 7 races with Aurora Vega, Sounds Victorious, Allegorie De Vassy and Champ Kiely. Of all those performances I thought that Champ Kiely was the most impressive having defied a layoff of 614 days to pitch up with a 145 RPR chasing debut. He was seen playing third fiddle to Impaire Et Passe in the 2022/23 season as a Novice Hurdler, but he is now already a 9yo. However, with only 9 runs under his belt. That screams caution if thinking about longer term targets for him, however it was good to see him back. I’m not sure the form is the strongest but he deserves to be treated in isolation given his own circumstances.
At Tramore, I was disappointed that we didn’t see Gerri Colombe in the New Years Day Chase as he wasn’t declared for the Savills Chase over Christmas either. He needs to be mentioned as I suggested he was a worthy play in the Gold Cup right at the start of this season’s book, however it isn’t ideal that he’s not been out, especially when the ground should have been ideal for him. He was in the Gold Cup entries and having been entered in these races, at least it shows that he’s coming along. I certainly would want to see him out on a course before Cheltenham as that would be some feat to head straight the Gold Cup in March. I think with how the Savills Chase panned out, Galopin Des Champs looks as good as last year, but going back to my reasoning behind Gerri Colombe, I think he could have finished closer last year with a bit more luck, so I’m still not ruling him out. The winner of the New Years Day Chase, Embassy Gardens, is a nice horse and it was good to see him take in this prize. Monty’s Star still ran with credit although a beaten favourite, on a track that I’m not entirely sure suited him. That was his first foray into open company and he’s likely to take a big step forward next time out.
On Sunday over at Naas we had a couple of Graded races which both went the way of the second favourites. In the Grade 2 novices’ chase it was Ile Atlantique who took the bull by the horns and ran out a good winner with Firefox and Inthepocket in behind. Conditions were testing which would have suited him, having stamina in his form and wins on bad ground in there too, but there will still be the slight cloud over him that his form last spring significantly tailed off. I’m not sure if we’ll see him now before Cheltenham as they went from this meeting to Prestbury Park last year so it presents a quandary of him having clear ability, but can he do it in the big festivals?
In the Grade 1 feature, the Lawlors Of Naas Novices’ Hurdle another ante-post recommendation was seen in action with Jasmin De Vaux a well beaten 11/8 favourite. His jumping was worse than his debut and he was keen early on but never looked like landing a blow and Paul Townend certainly looked after him in the home straight. Again, I’ll reiterate that it was bad ground despite only being called soft and I’d be prepared to give him a chance to do better, but I wouldn’t be holding my breath. I suppose he falls into the category of “he’s in the book now” and by that, I mean it still wouldn’t shock me if he improves and runs a race in March, but I wouldn’t be betting him for a Turners now although I’ve not quite thrown away the ticket just yet. The winner, The Yellow Clay, looked a much more complete horse and when I was looking at the trends for this race I saw that runners with more races under their belt typically fared better, so I thought he might be the one to beat despite the market; he showed speed for a stayer to win like he did last time out. I’m not sure whether he’s a Turners winner but he’d have a chance, although he does look the right type for an Albert Bartlett. Gordon hinted it will be the former race for him come March although there’s lots of time for things to change between now and then.
COMING UP THIS WEEK
There are some decent Graded races scheduled for Saturday in the UK but with weather causing issues we don’t know what will survive at this moment, or even where the races may take place with the BHA open to moving fixtures to race-fit courses. Still, it’s chasers to the fore this weekend over here, with Novice Chasers having two Grade 2’s to aim at with the Hampton over 3 miles in Warwick and the Towton over 2m 3½f in Wetherby. As for the open chasers, the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase over 2m 4½f is scheduled in Kempton at the moment.
Sunday would be all about Punchestown with their card hosting the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novices’ Hurdle where I’m hoping we’ll finally see Salvator Mundi strut his stuff. I put him up as a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle recommendation in Week 2 and since then we’ve not seen a horse set a very high bar for the 2 mile Novices’. A little like Gerri Colombe earlier though, I thought we’d have seen him again by now, but maybe more like Lucky Place, the trainers will have their plans and they will know best. There’s also the Grade 3 Novices Chase over 2m 3½f where Willie’s only entry is Lecky Watson yet Gordon Elliott has 6 to choose from.
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