We have all the must-know 2024 Cheltenham Festival Trends for day one of the National Hunt showpiece, which takes place on Tuesday 12th March. Cheltenham fanatic Dave Young (AKA @cheltmentalFB on Twitter) has delved into the trends for all day one races, which includes a useful cheat sheet for all the Day 1 races. Day one will see the likes Champion Hurdle, Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Arkle Challenge Trophy take place on a stunning day’s action.
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The festival is on its way and I have picked out the key trends for each of the seven races on day one of the Cheltenham Festival and also picked out a selection that hits the trends.
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1.30pm)
- 24 of the last 27 winners won last time out
- 12 of the last 14 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
- 11 of the last 12 winners had won a Graded Novice Hurdle
- 7 of the last 10 unbeaten that season
- 21 of the last 29 winners ran in the last 45 days
- Only 2 of the last 10 winners ran inside 28 days and 0 in the last 5
- No winner in headgear for over 30 years
- Last 5 winners Irish or Nicky Henderson trained and 10 of the last 11
Trends Pick – JERIKO DU REPONET
Arkle Novices’ Chase (2.10pm)
- Last 14 winners won last time out
- 22 of 24 last winners were single-figure priced
- 7 of the last 10 winners were sent off favourite
- 7 of the last 10 had won all their completed Chase starts
- In the last 10 years, 3 Supreme winners have raced here and all won
- 14 of the last 19 winners had won or placed at Cheltenham previously
- Only 1 winner in headgear in this century (WESTERN WARHORSE)
- Every winner this century had not finished outside the first 3 over fences
Trends Pick – FOUND A FIFTY
Ultima Handicap Chase (2.50pm)
- 19 of the last 23 were 11/1 or shorter
- 12 of the last 15 winners were in their first or second season chasing
- 18 of 23 were rated 143 or less
- 10 of the last 14 ran had run at Cheltenham that season
- 7 of the last 10 ran in the last 45 days
- 15 of 23 were rated 140+
- Only 3 of the last 15 hadn’t raced at a previous Festival
- Irish have only won twice since 1967
Trends Pick – CHIANTI CLASSICO
Champion Hurdle (3.30pm)
- 34 of the last 40 won last time out
- 11 of the last 13 were unbeaten that season
- Ireland and Nicky Henderson have won 21 of the last 25 between them
- Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson have won 10 of the last 15
- Avoid horses who failed to finish top 3 last time out
Trends Pick – STATE MAN
Mares’ Hurdle (4.10pm)
- 15 of the last 16 had won over at least 2m 4f
- 8 of the last 10 ran inside the last 40 days
- 8 of the last 10 had 2 or more starts that season
- Previous Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle winners have never won this
Trends Pick – ECHOES IN RAIN
Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (4.50pm)
- 8 of the last 10 winners didn’t wear headgear (last year’s winner did but previous 8 did not)
- 8 of the last 10 winners were double-figure prices
- 14 of the last 19 were rated 124-134
- 14 of the last 19 winners had won no more than once over hurdles
- Look for a horse who raced this year, preferably since January
- Only 3 of the last 19 were rated 135+
- No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
- Last winning mare was Une Artiste in 2012
Trends Pick – EAGLE FANG
National Hunt Chase (5.30pm)
- 13 of the last 14 had run in a Graded Chase
- 10 of the last 13 winners were rated 145+
- 7 of the last 10 were Irish trained
- 13 of the last 18 were aged 7 or 8 and 24 of the last 33
- 10 of the last 14 had run at a previous festival
- 10 of the last 14 had run 5+ times over fences
Trends Pick – SALVADOR ZIGGY
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