In the past few weeks several racing journalists/pundits have voiced the opinion that trainer Nicky Henderson is out of form and that his Cheltenham Festival runners should be treated with a degree of caution. Let’s examine the yard’s recent form to give us some background…
Since the beginning of February (until the close of play on March 4th) Henderson sent out six winners from 43 runners at a strike-rate of 13.95%, well below his overall strike-rate in the past 12 months of 20.67%.
However, the expected number of winners based on their odds was only 6.27, so his current strike-rate has little statistical significance. Much was made of a number of his horses pulling up, but we’ve had some desperate ground to cope with in the past four of five weeks and it’s no surprise that some of his runners simply failed to handle it. Here are those 43 runners split by Proform’s Going Allowance (GA) – the lower the number, the softer the ground…
The thirteen horses who raced on the worst ground produced just one winner and five pulled-ups…
Desperate ground looks to be a valid reason for some of Henderson’s horses disappointing but there are other reasons too. What the type of horse does he run in the month of February – ones that are probably not good enough to run at the Cheltenham Festival. As someone who has been in the racing game for over 25 years, this is far from the first time that Nicky Henderson’s form has been questioned as Cheltenham approaches. Look at his strike-rate in the past four Februarys….
His strike-rate has dipped below 14% on three occasions but, in 2021, 2022 and 2023, his strike-rate in March bounced back…
In summary, if you want to back a Nicky Henderson runner at next week’s Cheltenham festival don’t let the trainer’s current form put you off. The one I’m looking forward to most is not SIR GINO or SHISHKIN but MILL GREEN, a wonderful old servant who has placed in the last two renewals of the Pertemps Final. He’s a general 20-1 shot and has each-way claims again.
Andrew Mount’s Myth Busters – The Grand Annual Should Be Avoided At All Costs
We are learning more and more about the 2024 Cheltenham Festival as the days go by, and Andrew Mount continues to offer his guides to some crucial misgivings about the meeting. Last week, he took a broader view of how stats can prove a multitude of views, but looks in more granular detail at the…
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