Having run the rule over the championship favourites, Joe Napier turns his attention to the novice hurdle events at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival. Of those heading those markets, who is currently a betting proposition, and who is worth avoiding?
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle/Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle – Ballyburn
We could treat the future Ballyburn as two separate entities: the one who could run in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle on Tuesday, and the one destined for the Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle on Wednesday. However, would we recommend a different approach depending on where he goes? Almost certainly not.
That is because a peak-form Ballyburn looks comfortably superior to any horse in either line-up. The second favourite for the Wednesday contest, Slade Steel, was the horse trailing in Ballyburn’s wing mirrors last time at the Dublin Racing Festival, just going to show the scale of the favourite’s accomplishments already.
The Supreme could be more interesting with stablemates Mystical Power and Tullyhill both looking dangerous and Firefox having defeated Ballyburn on their hurdles’ debut. However, he looks the next powerhouse to come through the Closutton ranks and may only just be reaching full cry.
Verdict – PLAY
Triumph Hurdle – Sir Gino
Plenty of runners have been favourite for the Triumph Hurdle throughout the season, but the unequivocal market leader in the late build-up is Nicky Henderson’s Sir Gino. A winner in France on his only hurdles start in continental Europe, he won easily on his debut for Henderson before trouncing former Triumph Hurdle favourite Burdett Road by ten lengths, virtually on the bridle.
With this being a rare year in Ireland in which no horse has stuck out significantly, Sir Gino looks to have an outstanding chance and is many people’s idea of the NAP of the week. However, given Willie Mullins trained the 1-2-3-4 last season, there is at least a chance that one of Kargese, Storm Heart, Majboriugh or Bunting is very useful too, those being the quartet who filled the first four places in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at the Dublin Raving Festival. Salvator Mundi, second to Sir Gino in France, could also take his chance even if it will be his stable debut.
However, evidence suggests all will have to go some to match Sir Gino, who could be the latest off the Henderson production line of superstars.
Verdict – PLAY
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle – High Class Hero
Comfortably the most open of the Grade 1 novice hurdle events is the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle. There are broadly three horses, all trained by Willie Mullins, who are vying for favouritism, but the one whose average price is the lowest is High Class Hero, unbeaten to this point. He has won all four over hurdles, including a Listed event at Limerick in October and adding a fourth win at Thurles over his furthest trip to date in January.
On bare form, he is readily opposable, as the market suggests. As an unbeaten Mullins inmate at prices as big as 7/1, he could still be a betting proposition, but both Dancing City and Readin Tommy Wrong, who are his main rivals for the top spot in the betting here, have done their recent winning at a higher level. This is not a race to ignore the British challenge either, with both Captain Teague and Shanagh Bob representing the biggest stables and with stamina to burn.
Verdict – LAY
Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle – Brighterdaysahead
There have been some talented individuals win the Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle since its inception in 2016, but there probably has not been a renewal with the strength in depth of this year’s. Both Jade De Grugy and Dysart Enos look out of the ordinary mares on the ability they have shown to date, with the latter receiving 5lb from the former, as well as the favourite Brighterdaysahead.
However, Gordon Elliott’s mare has simply sauntered through her career to date, with two wins in Pattern company already. The latest came in a Listed race at Navan under a penalty, in which she won hard held by 12 lengths. It was even suggested that her trainer could consider the Grade 1 Mares’ Hurdle on day one as an alternative, such is the regard he holds the five-year-old in. She will be tough to beat, but then again some of her opponents may be of the same calibre.
Verdict – PLAY
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