It may be felt that Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls carry a majority of the home burden when it comes to the Cheltenham Festival. But after last week’s column on the remaining Irish trainer below the top tier, this week’s features those among the British ranks who have been successful at the big meeting.
Joe Napier has studied the numbers to find out any trends regarding the home team’s personnel in 2024.
A History
Studying the last ten years of British success at the Cheltenham Festival, one thing stands out quite notably compared to their Irish counterparts: the Brits, outside of Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls, have recorded significantly more victories than the Irish minus Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott and henry De Bromhead. Even if we add in Great Britain’s third most successful trainer to even those we take out (David Pipe, for those wondering), the score still stands at 66 for the rest of GB compared to 49 for the rest of Ireland.
This is not to say that the Irish domination has been overplayed in recent years, as the Prestbury Cup results in the last decade quite demonstrably show us that the lion’s share of prizes return to the Emerald Isle. However, the top yards do some seriously heavy lifting when it comes to these results, while there is a far more even spread on home shores.
We will include Pipe for the purposes of this column to analyse the 73 winners shared between the 38 trainers to have won a race at the Cheltenham Festival in the last ten years. He and Dan Skelton, with six winners, top this particular training league, although elements of their tallies point again towards a more even sharing of winners; Pipe has no winners at the Festival since 2017, for instance, while four of the Skelton yard’s six victories have come in one race, the County Hurdle.
Equally, whether the smaller British yards are on the rise quite as much as their Irish counterparts is arguable. In the last decade, the most successful year for such trainers in Britain was the furthest ago, when 13 different winners emerged from their bases in 2014. 2015 was the second most successful to boot, while the nadir came in 2021, when just three Festival winners represented British yards outside of the Henderson/Nicholls pair.
A slight increase in recent years however, has ensured there is plenty to take away from a punting perspective. Let us see which winners these trends may guide us towards.
Fences or Hurdles?
Where Irish trainers were narrowly more successful in hurdle races, the Brits excel significantly more over the larger obstacles. From our select groups in both nations, 24 hurdles victories each have been recorded in the last decade. However, in chases, the fight is far more one-sided, with the British yards claiming 47 to Ireland’s 23.
This is quite a substantial gap, both between the British and Irish trainers in terms of chase wins, but also between hurdles wins and chase wins for the hosts. Even discounting their five victories in the novices’ handicap, no longer run at the Festival, there is still a clear indication that the larger obstacles bring out the best in horses representing these yards.
Best Races
We could probably dedicate this section purely to the Ultima Handicap Chase. All of the last ten renewals have gone to Britain, and with Nicky Henderson responsible for just one of those, and Paul Nicholls none, this means that the remaining nine were all for trainers who fit our parameters.
Only one of those victories was a genuine shock too, that being the veteran Vintage Clouds’ success in 2021. Otherwise, every winner went off at 16/1 or shorter, so any British-trained runner towards the head of the betting has to be massively respected.
Handicap chases have been where these yards claim their hard-fought victories, as there is no handicap run at the Festival in the last ten years, including the novices’ handicap despite not being run since 2020, within which the smaller British yard have not won at least four renewals. The Plate is the next most profitable race for them with five wins, though the main pointer comes from the Grand Annual, in which all four winners have gone off at 16/1 or higher.
The non handicaps over fences have proven harder to come by, although there have been four winners for British trainers in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase in our time period. That includes in the last two renewals for Patrick Neville and Venetia Williams, courtesy of The Real Whacker and L’Homme Presse respectively.
Over hurdles, however, it is a championship contest in which plenty of British trainers have had their day. In the Stayers’ Hurdle there have been five wins split between Jonjo O’Neill, Rebecca Curtis, Emma Lavelle, Colin Tizzard and Warren Greatrex. Paisley Park and Thistlecrack were well-fancied favourites, but in years in which the race was more open, the other trio caused minor upsets at longer odds.
The County Hurdle should also be highlighted, if only because Dan Skelton has claimed all four victories in the race for trainers on this list. Whoever he sends out in the day four handicap should be monitored.
Worst Races
There are only two trophies which have avoided the clutches of Skelton and co since 2014. One of those is the Mares’ Chase, only introduced in 2021, but the other is much more significant: the Champion Hurdle. Nicky Henderson is the only British trainer to win Tuesday’s feature in the past decade, while a home trainer other than him has only had a horse place in the race twice in that time. Silver Streak was third for Evan Williams in 2019, while The New One filled the same position in 2014 for Nigel Twiston-Davies.
Days one and two are often the ones to avoid backing British trainers in apart from specific races. Six contests, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, Mares’ Hurdle, Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle, Coral Cup, Champion Chase and Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase, have all only gone to one British trainer away from the big two in ten years. The handicap within that list, the Coral Cup, is worthy of significant note as by far the least successful race for home trainers of its nature.
However, on days three and four, the win rate improves a lot. Only the Triumph Hurdle has not been won on multiple occasions (aside from the Mares’ Chase).
Who to Follow This Year
British market leaders in the Ultima Handicap Chase always have a significant chance in the one race totally dominated by the hosts. Among those set to go off shorter than 16/1 this year are Chianti Classico, Crebilly and Giovinco should they all run in the race. Corach Rambler would do too if there was a late change of heart regarding participation in the Gold Cup.
All of the handicap chases will be keenly sought by trainers below the upper echelons, but the main pointer when coupled up with starting price comes from the Grand Annual Handicap Chase. Four British winners have arrived in the last ten years aside from Paul Nicholls’ duo, with Sky Pirate at 14/1 being the shortest-priced. Master Chewy and In Excelsis Deo may be worth a market check at around 16/1 best price at time of writing, while even big outsiders like Gunsight Ridge and Guy could have a say.
Given it is an open year in the Stayers’ Hurdle, British hopes can be pinned to anywhere in the market. Crambo heads the home side’s charge, but a veteran landed it last year, so do not discount Paisley Park or Dashel Drasher from another big run.
Lastly, ensure you take Dan Skelton’s horses in the County Hurdle seriously. This is well-trodden ground, but four wins in the last eight renewals even sees him above Willie Mullins in victories in the contest. While Langer Dan will spearhead his handicap charge in the Coral Cup, Betfair hurdle runner-up L’Eau Du Sud is a short enough price in the shorter race. Defending champion Faivoir is among four other entries for Skelton in the County.
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