Week by week, GG are counting down to the 2024 Cheltenham Festival with a statistical look at the most successful trainers in the event’s history.
With six weeks left to go, it is the turn of Britain’s number one, Nicky Henderson, so often the foil to Willie Mullins’ greatness in recent times, to go under Joe Napier’s microscope. His record, as you would expect, is something spectacular.
A History
2023 was more or less an aberration for the Seven Barrows team. With such an illustrious history, containing 73 Festival winners, within which raced some of racing’s true greats, was boosted only by one last season. Fortunately, that one seems destined to continue winning at many Festivals to come. Constitution Hill may yet prove to be the least paralleled horse in history.
For most trainers, gaining that one prized winner, let alone in the Champion Hurdle, would constitute the pinnacle. However, Henderson’s 73 winners have been amassed since 1985, effectively ensuring his yard have won at a rate of two winners per Festival. This, of course, does not take into account a similar, Mullins-esque acceleration coinciding with the growth of the meeting itself.
His first three successes all arrived at the same meeting: See You Then claimed the first of a record nine Champion Hurdles for his trainer, future Grand National runner-up The Tsarevich won the Plate Handicap, and First Bout became Henderson’s first Triumph Hurdle winner of seven, another race in which he is the most successful trainer.
However, while some early success came courtesy of great two-milers Remittance Man and Travado, 53 of Henderson’s 73 winners have come since the turn of the century. Times have changed, as despite carrying only 20 winners into the year 2000, he had already been the Festival’s leading trainer on six occasions, three by himself, though the yard’s peak was unquestionably in 2012, in which he sent out seven winners. Only Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins have ever sent out more in a single season at the Festival.
Fences or Hurdles?
As referenced in the first edition of this column, Willie Mullins has farmed the Champion Bumper with 12 winners in that race alone. Henderson is the complete opposite, with none of his 73 winners ever having come in that contest. Only when his horses go over obstacles can they be considered for Festival glory.
The test itself matters less. The split between Henderson’s hurdling and chasing winners comes in at 35-38 in favour of the larger obstacles. That said, five of those 38 chase winners came in now defunct races, the Cathcart Challenge Cup and the novices’ handicap chase. Altogether, there is precious little to split between the hurdlers and chasers, and followers of Henderson’s horses need not discriminate when it comes to placing their bets.
Best Races
The Champion Hurdle is Henderson’s standout contest. He has won nine renewals in all, including four of the last seven. Perhaps more remarkably, he endured a 22-year drought in the race between See You Then’s hat-trick victory and Punjabi’s 22/1 shock win in 2009. Constitution Hill is almost certain to continue that success barring injury, as any future chasing plans appear to have been permanently shelved.
His seven wins in the Triumph Hurdle have arrived more consistently, though only two of those have been since 2011. The Supreme now tends to be the most targeted novice contest: three of Henderson’s five winners have come since 2016, all of which have been superstars (Altior, Shishkin and Constitution Hill).
The theme throughout his most successful races, both over fences and hurdles, is that they are speedier types. 15 of his 38 chase winners have come in the Arkle, Queen Mother Champion Chase and Grand Annual, all over the shortest Cheltenham trip of 2m. His yard is regularly blessed with unmatched National Hunt pace, while continuity is another thing his yard excels at.
For example, three of his Arkle winners became champion chasers, while his last three Supreme winners have followed up in the races they contested the following year. Even in staying contests, which he has less overall success in, Bobs Worth has stepped up through the ranks, claiming the Albert Bartlett, Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase and the Gold Cup in successive years.
Henderson’s yard is regularly blessed with unmatched National Hunt pace.
Worst Races
It may seem harsh to target Nicky Henderson’s record in Festival handicaps, as he has won 25 such races. Equally, he has won every single handicap currently run at the Cheltenham Festival, with four wins each in the Coral Cup and the Plate.
However, his last handicap win at the Festival was Dame De Compagnie’s Coral Cup success in 2020. That was also one of just three wins in such races in the last decade. While handicaps are significantly more open to smaller yards and the odd plot, it is still a record worthy of note.
That said, he has at least won all of those contests at some point, so it is impossible to discount any horse he runs who is favoured by the markets. Conversely, there are six races he has never won at the meeting: the National Hunt Chase, Cross Country Chase, Champion Bumper, Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, Foxhunters’ and Mares’ Chase.
Historically, he has had a lot of talented mares come through his ranks and both races he hasn’t won for those have only been introduced since 2016. The only real outliers are the National Hunt Chase and Champion Bumper, races which he would not necessarily ignore like the Cross Country or Foxhunters’ but is simply yet to succeed in.
Who to Follow This Year
You can afford to ignore Henderson’s chances if you wish to instead watch admiringly as Constitution Hill glides through the Champion Hurdle once again. His charge is already worthy of debate among the greats of the game and also runs in Henderson’s most successful Festival race. Everything points to Champion Hurdle number ten for Seven Barrows in 2024.
Elsewhere, any race run over 2m can be considered a real opportunity to follow Henderson’s runners. Considering every 2m race, including handicaps since 2010, you would be over seven points in profit for a level stake if you backed every single one of Henderson’s horses in such races. Jonbon may not be favourite for the Champion Chase, but has to be respected with his trainer’s record, while the odd dart has tended to land in the handicaps. Iberico Lord, Impose Toi and Under Control may give him and JP McManus a strong hand in the County Hurdle, for instance.
Since Pentland Hills’ victory in the 2019 Triumph Hurdle, Henderson has not sent out a single runner. Those who are engaged tend to be fully tuned up for the race, including the aforementioned 20/1 winner, so Sir Gino can be expected to run very well, even accounting for his prohibitive price.
Similarly, none of his last three world-beating Supreme winners, Altior, Shishkin and Constitution Hill, went off as the outright favourite. Jeriko Du Reponet may have disappointed at Doncaster in the Grade 2 Rossington Main Novices’ Hurdle, but will almost certainly improve again for Cheltenham and will not head the market come the day.
Meanwhile, given his record of horses following up at successive Festivals, keep an eye on the last two for 2025. Wins for either of those in the Triumph or Supreme, and the Arkle may well come into the conversation a year later.
Those Henderson engages in the Triumph Hurdle tend to be fully tuned up to win.
Cheltenham Stat Attack – Willie Mullins & How Best to Play His 2024 Festival Hopefuls
It’s exactly seven weeks until the Cheltenham Festival gets underway. At GG, we are aiming to provide even more insight into the Greatest Show on Turf, with statistical analysis into the biggest names behind the horses. In his opening column, our writer, Joe Napier, provides the insight into the most successful Cheltenham trainer of all,…
Tue 23 Jan 2024Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
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