There are just four weeks left until the Cheltenham Festival 2024, meaning GG’s countdown continues apace.
As we continue to analyse the biggest trainers and their chances, Joe Napier’s focus moves to Somerset for a look at Paul Nicholls’ record at the meeting.
A History
A name that for so long was synonymous with greats, Paul Nicholls’ Cheltenham Festival record reached an impasse in recent years as Ireland’s powerhouses rose to dwarf his own. Yet, in the late noughties and early 2010s, there was nobody on either side of the Irish Sea who could match the talent at his disposal.
In all, the yard is the third most successful in the meeting’s history, with 48 winners. Only Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson have ever recorded more, and for four straight years between 2006 to 2009, as well as in 1999 and 2004, Nicholls trained the most winners at the meeting, with a personal best of five recorded in 2009.
When the likes of Kauto Star, Master Minded and Big Buck’s were winning championship races for fun, it would have seemed impossible that Ditcheat could endure a single barren year, let alone successive ones. However, in both 2021 and 2022, Nicholls’ team returned from Prestbury Park empty-handed, cursing the misfortune of training in Somerset and not County Carlow.
Fresh shoots have begun to spring again though, with Stage Star and Stay Away Fay providing Cheltenham victories for the first time in three years in 2023. Not only that, but they came in novice Grade 1s, sparking significant hope that further success may be just around the corner.
For four straight years between 2006 to 2009…Nicholls trained the most winners at the Cheltenham Festival.
Fences or Hurdles?
With no previous winners in the Champion Bumper, Nicholls’ record ties in far more with Nicky Henderson than it does with Willie Mullins. That similarity ends though given that Nicholls has excelled more with his chasers, winning 28 races at the Festival over fences compared to 20 over hurdles.
Even a look at some of his hurdles winners points to the stable improving those who go over the larger obstacles. Big Buck’s was arguably Kauto Star’s heir elect as the next bright, young staying chaser, but could barely bring himself to jump a fence. As it was, he reverted to hurdles, winning four straight Stayers’ Hurdles for good measure and retiring a Cheltenham legend.
Equally, those chasers tend to be producing at the highest level. 23 of those 28 winners came in open and novice company, with the National Hunt Chase the only Grade 1 missing from his trophy cabinet over fences. That leaves only five handicap victories, four of which have come over 2m in the Grand Annual.
Over hurdles, the story is different. The split is neatly divided in half, with ten wins in Grade 1s, novice or otherwise, and ten in handicaps.
Best Races
Over fences, it is difficult to keep Nicholls down in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. It is his most successful race with six winners, including his second ever Festival winner in Call Equiname right up to Politologue in 2020. If you include the Ryanair Chase as a feature race, then 18 of the 48 Festival winners for Nicholls have come in championship contests.
He can never be ruled out in such races, with the Champion Hurdle the only one he has not won on three or more occasions. However, unusually perhaps few of them had previously won a Grade 1 novice contest, with only Azertyuiop and Denman graduating from a prior Festival win to be among Nicholls’ championship contingent. They were either dropped straight in at the deep end, such as Master Minded or Kauto Star, or brought along gradually for later success, such as Politologue or Frodon.
When it comes to the handicaps, there is a substantial theme that sticks out. 11 of his 15 handicap winners have been in races over 2m, with one of the four not to have done so being Chapoturgeon in the novices’ handicap chase, now run at Sandown. He has regular success in the Fred Winter, County Hurdle and Grand Annual, and is potentially overdue a win in one of those races.
Finally, a word is worth including on the Foxhunters’, which Nicholls has won on four occasions. Usually, those he targets at the race had been previously useful, so keep an eye on his entries for the race this year.
18 of the 48 Festival winners for Nicholls have come in championship contests.
Worst Races
Both novice victors from 2023 succeeded in contests Nicholls had never won before. The only other novice winner he has had in Grade 1 company since 2011 was Topofthegame in the 2019 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase. Otherwise, wins in such races have been thin on the ground, while the yard have also failed to win either the National Hunt Chase or Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle in the past. Even Denman could not manage to bring success in the latter.
Races such as the Champion Bumper, Cross Country, and any of the mares’ only contests are not ones Nicholls traditionally targets, hence a return of no winners. More pertinently, though the main takeaway is that most of his handicap wins have come at 2m, he has never had a handicap winner beyond 2m5f. The Ultima, Kim Muir, and Pertemps Final have all remained elusive to date, as has the Plate, run over that distance of 2m5f.
Ultimately, if Nicholls has a useful stayer, they are rarely left unfound by the handicapper. However, despite consistent success at campaigning such runners over shorter distances, he has been able to deceive the ratings on multiple occasions.
Who to Follow This Year
Never rule out a well-fancied Nicholls runner in a championship contest. Stage Star is his biggest chance in any of the top races, as he is currently a general second favourite for the Ryanair. Similarly, despite a poor season, Bravemansgame will be no greater price than See More Business when he won Nicholls a first Gold Cup in 1999 and cannot be ruled out despite a string of recent runner-up efforts.
Novice events have not been quite so easy to claim for Ditcheat over the years, so despite two wins in the Turners Novices’ Chase and Albert Bartlett in 2023, do not necessarily expect big things in 2024. That is despite decent chances in the Turners and Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase.
Conversely, he is overdue a handicap win given a general trend of success over the years, and as these usually come in races over 2m, look out for Kabral Du Mathan in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle on day one, Samarrive in the Grand Annual on day two, and Sonigino in the County Hurdle no day four, all of whom are priced up as potential chances.
Cheltenham Stat Attack – Where Can We Expect Gordon Elliott’s Winners in 2024?
It is the third week of our big Cheltenham countdown at GG, which means we are only five weeks away from kick off. As Joe Napier continues to look into the top modern trainers at the Cheltenham Festival, it is the turn of Ireland’s currently perennial number two, Gordon Elliott, who he analyses in the…
Tue 06 Feb 2024Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.