The County Hurdle is, along with the Coral Cup, entitled to the biggest field at the Cheltenham Festival. With so many runners to choose from, following the trends can be a significant guide, and we have unearthed the best of those below.
Age
Young, unexposed types have tended to come to the fore in the County Hurdle, with 15 of the last 20 winners aged either five or six. Within those, nine have been aged just five, so first season novices are easily able to escape the handicappers’ clutches. To push this point further, the last two five-year-old winners have been Willie Mullins’ pair of State Man and Saint Roi, who were both extremely well-treated given their lack of exposure on the racecourse to that point.
Unusually, there is a gap formed by no seven-year-old winners in the last 20 renewals, as you would have to go back to 2003 and Spirit Leader for a winner of that age. If there are no standouts among the younger generations, then more experienced hurdles aged either eight or nine are the order of the day, with Faivoir being an example in last year’s race.
Age of the Last 20 County Hurdle Winners
- 5 – 9 winners
- 6 – 6 winners
- 7 – 0 winners
- 8 – 4 winners
- 9 – 1 winner
- 10+ – 0 winners
Starting Price
As with so many Cheltenham Festival handicaps it is difficult to find a winner. Four favourites have been victorious in the last 20 seasons, with Sporazene going off as a 7/1 joint favourite in 2004, though only two of those have been outright market leaders. That pair were the aforementioned State Man and Saint Roi, so Willie Mullins aside, you are better off looking further down the betting.
This is evidenced by nine of the last 20 winners going off at 20/1 or higher and only five single-figure priced winners. Four more winners priced between 10-12/1 show there is value everywhere in this particular market.
Starting Price of the Last 20 County Hurdle Winners
- <11/4 – 0 winners
- 11/4-9/1 – 5 winners
- 10/1-14/1 – 5 winners
- 16/1-20/1 – 5 winners
- 22/1+ – 5 winners
Weight Carried
In keeping with the theme of horses escaping the handicappers’ clutches, 14 of the last 20 County Hurdle winners have carried a weight under 11st. Three more have carried 11st or 11st 1lb so this is not a race in which established runners, even those with proven class, have repelled the younger charges.
The only big exception was former Champion Hurdle runner-up Arctic Fire in 2017, who won off top-weight after a substantial lay-off. Only Wicklow Brave and Ch’tibello have otherwise carried significantly more than 11st, with both Pedrobob in 2007 and Belfast Banter in 2021 carrying the minimum weight of 10st.
Weight Carried by the Last 20 County Hurdle Winners
- 10st-10st 6lb – 4 winners
- 10st 7lb-10st 13lb – 10 winners
- 11st-11st 6lb – 5 winners
- 11st 7lb+ – 1 winner
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